They have to swing 64 electoral votes; they don't seem to know where they are coming from....
Good.
Bush barely got to 270 and he had good support among Hispanics. Republicans blocking immigration reform will not help them
In 2012, Republicans got 45% of the womans vote. Given recent Republican attitudes towards women and Democrats running a woman and that goes down to 40%
No way for Republicans to reach 270
Two years is an eternity in politics. However, when you look at the map and the states Obama won; it's hard to see a path to 270:
Remember, they need 64 to swing to their side.
Which ones will swing?
1 HI No
2 WA No
3 OR No
4 CA No
5 NV Unlikely
6 NM Unlikely
7 CO Unlikely
8 MN No
9 WI Possibly--within the realm of possibility
10 IA Possibly--within the realm; recall that Hillary didn't win Iowa in 2008 when she had every conceivable advantage.
11 IL No
12 OH Possibly--within the realm however she beat Obama in the 08 primary in Ohio. She is incredibly strong in the urban areas
13 MI No
14 PA No
15 NY No
16 NJ No
17 NH No
18 MA No
19 CT No
20 RI No
21 ME No
22 VT No
23 DE No
24 FL Maybe but without two other large states; Florida's switch doesn't matter
25 VA No
26 DC No
So , the GOP has to hold what they have plus get
FL 29
OH 18
IA 06
WI 10
______
Total is 63
Plus one of the Unlikely 3 (CO, NM, NV).
To flip 5 states is almost impossible in this climate without someone named Reagan on the ballot. It is entirely possible that Clinton may be able to steal Arkansas or Missouri if the candidate is not a TEA party darling.