deltex1
Gold Member
You should have spread out your Mexicans instead of herding them all into SoCal...
HTF Did Trump Win?
- Thread starter Meathead
- Start date
Hum Dinger
Gold Member
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The news media doesn't take polls. they report the results of polls which are taken by companies that specialized in polling.
These companies have expert statisticians, which of course means nothing to people who don't believe in math and science and stuff like that, but to those of us who do, there is a great concern as to why these polls did not match the election results.
One theory is to say that the pollsters do not know what they're doing. The problem with that is that in the vast majority of electoral districts the polls were absolutely accurate. They were only inaccurate in key electoral district - very suspicious.
The next is to say that there was election fraud - this would have had to occur on a massive level and would mean a total vulnerability of our election system. It's not impossible, but it's highly doubtful.
So, I've come up with an alternative - and very simple and realistic theory. The elections were accurate, the polls were accurate but people just lied when they were polled. Because it would mean only people of one political persuasion and only in key electoral districts, it would have to be organized. What's more is that since it's not illegal to lie on polls - it's much more probable than any other explanation.
Weatherman2020
Diamond Member
Weatherman2020
Diamond Member
She was arguing with her superior and lost.
Hum Dinger
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Do people actually believe that now with Republican majorities in the house and senate, and with billionaires in the cabinet that Washington is any less of a 'swamp' than it ever has been?
The democrats have their flaws, without a doubt, but the Republicans are owned lock stock and barrel by special interests.
What's worse is that the President is Wall St.'s sweetheart. Sure he'll do some symbolic things to hold to his campaign promises, but in the end he's a billionaire elitist of the worst sort.
The democrats have their flaws, without a doubt, but the Republicans are owned lock stock and barrel by special interests.
What's worse is that the President is Wall St.'s sweetheart. Sure he'll do some symbolic things to hold to his campaign promises, but in the end he's a billionaire elitist of the worst sort.
- Banned
- #49
These guys are less likely to be the complete whore/sellouts that the GOP/Dems have been since 1998...
Hum Dinger
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Hum Dinger
Gold Member
- Aug 19, 2008
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- 315
Yes, but that's not saying much...
usmbguest5318
Gold Member
Of all those population segments, the most significant one is the age group delineation. Its is because white older people are the most reliable voters, that is, they vote in greater numbers than do younger cohorts.
Quite simply, Trump played to the interests of people in his own generation, Baby Boomers, and the generation born to baby boomers at a time when they are likely to vote than at any other point in the lives and while their numbers are great enough still to overshadow subsequent generations. In other words, it was a matter of timing; Trump struck when the time was right for playing on the sentiments that lies in Baby Boomers, particularly white ones, memories.
As for the education level thing, well, that's just a consequence of what share of Baby Boomers obtained advanced education. Among Trump's generation, that's about 25% to 35%. No surprise there; those people came along at a time when having a baccalaureate degree or higher was not remotely necessary to obtain a middle class existence.
(Apologies for the chart. I didn't compose it, and it is among the more difficult charts to understand.)
In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates overall backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980. For example, in 2012, there was hardly any difference between the two groups: College graduates backed Obama over Romney by 50%-48%, and those without a college degree also supported Obama 51%-47%.
Among whites, Trump won an overwhelming share -- [there's your Boomers who lack college degrees and who vote reliably] -- of those without a college degree; and among white college graduates – a group that many identified as key for a potential Clinton victory – Trump outperformed Clinton by a narrow 4-point margin.
Trump’s margin among whites without a college degree is the largest among any candidate in exit polls since 1980. Two-thirds (67%) of non-college whites backed Trump, compared with just 28% who supported Clinton, resulting in a 39-point advantage for Trump among this group. In 2012 and 2008, non-college whites also preferred the Republican over the Democratic candidate but by less one-sided margins (61%-36% and 58%-40%, respectively).
Trump won whites with a college degree 49% to 45%. In 2012, Romney won college whites by a somewhat wider margin in 2012 (56%-42%). Trump’s advantage among this group is the same as John McCain’s margin in 2008 (51%-47%). Due largely to the dramatic movement among whites with no college degree, the gap between college and non-college whites is wider in 2016 than in any past election dating to 1980.
Among whites, Trump won an overwhelming share -- [there's your Boomers who lack college degrees and who vote reliably] -- of those without a college degree; and among white college graduates – a group that many identified as key for a potential Clinton victory – Trump outperformed Clinton by a narrow 4-point margin.
Trump’s margin among whites without a college degree is the largest among any candidate in exit polls since 1980. Two-thirds (67%) of non-college whites backed Trump, compared with just 28% who supported Clinton, resulting in a 39-point advantage for Trump among this group. In 2012 and 2008, non-college whites also preferred the Republican over the Democratic candidate but by less one-sided margins (61%-36% and 58%-40%, respectively).
Trump won whites with a college degree 49% to 45%. In 2012, Romney won college whites by a somewhat wider margin in 2012 (56%-42%). Trump’s advantage among this group is the same as John McCain’s margin in 2008 (51%-47%). Due largely to the dramatic movement among whites with no college degree, the gap between college and non-college whites is wider in 2016 than in any past election dating to 1980.
Quite simply, the largest and most reliable source of votes for Trump came from a segment of society that doesn't care about complex analysis and explanations of things like economics, climate change, etc. It's just as well, in their minds, that they don't as they, in general, never obtained the training to evaluate the analysis even if it's presented to them. For better or worse, Boomers grew up in simpler times and their worldview is a reflection of that. It's not that the complexity didn't exist before; it did, but it didn't affect the average middle-class-lifestyle-aspiring American. It's just that the way the world operated then didn't require everyday citizens to fully understand it in order to arrive at sensible conclusions.
Why is that the case? Simple: the whole rest of the world was in tatters in the aftermath of WWII. As a nation, the U.S. had no competitors. Even the USSR wasn't a real peer to the U.S.; it, and to a lesser extent China, merely matched the U.S.' military might. Economically, however, they couldn't hold a candle to the U.S. Moreover, they were politically the enemies of the U.S. and Western Europe, which though Europe devastated by the war, still were the "owners" of the rest of the world. In a nutshell, only the U.S. and the USSR came out of WWII in a stronger position than when they entered it. In the U.S., given the racism and sexism that pervaded the culture, about all one needed to do was be white and male in order to thrive as an American. These days, that's not enough.
- Banned
- #54
It is sort of like the election itself...
Do you like Trump - no
Do you like Hillary - no
Who do you hate more?
Trump Trump Trump.... tie... late Oct Hillary Hillary Hillary....
LOL
Little-Acorn
Gold Member
"Everyone" (actually a tiny minority in the media and academie, of course) was wrong, of course.
And normal Americans got tired of having things they didn't want, shoved down their throats by the minority of liberals in power.
So when a candidate showed up who was tough enough to kick the liberals out and keep kicking, the normal Americans voted him in.
Meathead
Diamond Member
- Thread starter
- #57
304 - 227
Of all those population segments, the most significant one is the age group delineation. Its is because white older people are the most reliable voters, that is, they vote in greater numbers than do younger cohorts.
Quite simply, Trump played to the interests of people in his own generation, Baby Boomers, and the generation born to baby boomers at a time when they are likely to vote than at any other point in the lives and while their numbers are great enough still to overshadow subsequent generations. In other words, it was a matter of timing; Trump struck when the time was right for playing on the sentiments that lies in Baby Boomers, particularly white ones, memories.
As for the education level thing, well, that's just a consequence of what share of Baby Boomers obtained advanced education. Among Trump's generation, that's about 25% to 35%. No surprise there; those people came along at a time when having a baccalaureate degree or higher was not remotely necessary to obtain a middle class existence.
(Apologies for the chart. I didn't compose it, and it is among the more difficult charts to understand.)
In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates overall backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980. For example, in 2012, there was hardly any difference between the two groups: College graduates backed Obama over Romney by 50%-48%, and those without a college degree also supported Obama 51%-47%.
Among whites, Trump won an overwhelming share -- [there's your Boomers who lack college degrees and who vote reliably] -- of those without a college degree; and among white college graduates – a group that many identified as key for a potential Clinton victory – Trump outperformed Clinton by a narrow 4-point margin.
Trump’s margin among whites without a college degree is the largest among any candidate in exit polls since 1980. Two-thirds (67%) of non-college whites backed Trump, compared with just 28% who supported Clinton, resulting in a 39-point advantage for Trump among this group. In 2012 and 2008, non-college whites also preferred the Republican over the Democratic candidate but by less one-sided margins (61%-36% and 58%-40%, respectively).
Trump won whites with a college degree 49% to 45%. In 2012, Romney won college whites by a somewhat wider margin in 2012 (56%-42%). Trump’s advantage among this group is the same as John McCain’s margin in 2008 (51%-47%). Due largely to the dramatic movement among whites with no college degree, the gap between college and non-college whites is wider in 2016 than in any past election dating to 1980.
Quite simply, the largest and most reliable source of votes for Trump came from a segment of society that doesn't care about complex analysis and explanations of things like economics, climate change, etc. It's just as well, in their minds, that they don't as they, in general, never obtained the training to evaluate the analysis even if it's presented to them. For better or worse, Boomers grew up in simpler times and their worldview is a reflection of that. It's not that the complexity didn't exist before; it did, but it didn't affect the average middle-class-lifestyle-aspiring American. It's just that the way the world operated then didn't require everyday citizens to fully understand it in order to arrive at sensible conclusions.
Why is that the case? Simple: the whole rest of the world was in tatters in the aftermath of WWII. As a nation, the U.S. had no competitors. Even the USSR wasn't a real peer to the U.S.; it, and to a lesser extent China, merely matched the U.S.' military might. Economically, however, they couldn't hold a candle to the U.S. Moreover, they were politically the enemies of the U.S. and Western Europe, which though Europe devastated by the war, still were the "owners" of the rest of the world. In a nutshell, only the U.S. and the USSR came out of WWII in a stronger position than when they entered it. In the U.S., given the racism and sexism that pervaded the culture, about all one needed to do was be white and male in order to thrive as an American. These days, that's not enough.
Hum Dinger
Gold Member
- Aug 19, 2008
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I would agree that liberal leadership has been trying to force major sociological changes that run adverse to a lot of Americans beliefs on them. While I agree with most of these, even I got sick of hearing a lot of these.
Acceptance of gays, minorities and feminism comes when people interact with gays, minorities and feminists (i.. working women), not by government policy.
Having the black lives matter movement riot whenever force was used against any black person regardless if it was justified or not did not help the liberal cause.
I think that a lot of Americans were just fed up with the social justice warriors.
Hum Dinger
Gold Member
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Do you know what whining means? Do you think that whining about things will improve your lot in life?
So, when people say things that you don't like you accuse them of whining?
If you disagree with something I've posted please point out the flaw in my logic.
Otherwise, SHUT THE **** UP!
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