Even the LWNJs know there is something wrong.....this post is really,for them and not the smart people here....
How Long Can Economic Reality Be Ignored? | Zero Hedge
It is not for nothing that your source is called Zero Credibility!
From your link:
"the unemployment rate is 23%"
I suppose reading the truth for the first time, must be jarring.
23% unemployment is an accurate number, but you must be willing to educate yourself to understand the truth. You can't.
Is it? Let's look. The 23% number comes from John Williams at shadowstats.com In his page on
Alternate Unemployment Charts he explains his methodology as "
The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers."
So:
- He ignores that discouraged workers, regardless of when they stopped looking, have never been part of the official UE rate so that changing the definition had no effect on the UE rate(1).
- He ignores that "marginally attached," a component of the U-6, did not exist as a concept prior to 1994(1)
- He accepts the numbers of Unemployed, Marginally Attached, and Part Time for Economic Reasons as accurate.
- He thinks they are incomplete and should include "long term discouraged workers" defined as people who want and are available for work but who have not looked in the last 4 weeks and who stopped looking because they believed they would not find work.
- The U-6 is (Unemployed + Marginally Attached + Part Time for Economic reasons)/(Labor Force + Marginally Attached) = 0.097 (2)
- Williams' formula then would be (U + M + P + X)/(L + M + X) =0.23
Ok. Math time. From
Table A1 Unemployed is 7,770,000; and Labor Force is 159,287,000. From
Table A8 Part Time for Economic Reasons is 5,940,000. From
Table A16, Marginally Attached is 1,950,000
Plugging into Williams' formula then, (7,770,000+1,950,000+5,940,000+X)/(159,287,000+1,950,000+X)=.23
(15,660,000+X)/(161,237,000+X)=.23
15,660,000+X=37,084,510+.23X
.77X=21,424,510
X=27,824,039
So he's claiming there are around 28 million people who are "long-term discouraged"....people who want a job, are available to start work, but have not done anything at all to find a job in the last year and who stopped looking because they believed they would find no work. Does this sound right?
Now, since Mr. Williams has already accepted the BLS level data as accurate (he only argues the rate is incomplete), let's see what BLS says in
Table A38
Not in the Labor Force, Want a job now, did not search for work in previous year: 3,714,000
Huh. And since of the 2,530,000 who looked in the last year but not last 4 weeks, only 591,000 were discouraged, where the Hell is Williams getting 28 million from?
So who wants to tell me I need education in this field? Can anyone present any kind of defense of Williams' absurd numbers?
Footnotes
1.
BLS Introduces New Range of Alternative Unemployment Measures.
2. Definitions are in Table A16, and also in
Glossary