How did the GOP end up with Donald? Nate Silver

[JimH52]

You know...conventional wisdom says Hillary won't be indicted.....

And neither will University Trump?

 

[JimH52]

Amazing how a pseudo-intellectual douchebag, mini-George Will like Nate Silver has the chutzpah to try to salvage his failed predictions and give false confort to low information people who did not think The Donald would win. The reason The Donald won is that the majority of the people realize he is the only candidate who actually works for a living, has a great sense of humor, and is not a neocon zionist and thus he is not controlled by The Lobby.

I don't think he is trying to "salvage" anything. Hr was wrong on Trump because he didn't believe the RWers would throw their conservative principles out the window. They did. Half still don't understand what Trump is saying, as they walk along as sheep. Trump is different and is not PC. They like that. They may never know what a flip flopping liberal that he is.....until it is too late.

OH WELL!​

 

[Fueri]

By his own admission, Silver has been flummoxed by Trump all along.

He's quite often dead nuts on the screws, but right now it seems to me he's looking for explanations to fill the voids in his normally stats-driven analysis.

I don't read Silver, which I do, for that type of armchair nonsense. I come here for that shit....lol.

Silver's usually pretty on the nose when it comes to these things specifically because he approaches things in a fairly cold analytical way. He drives folks nuts when he's calling out nonsense among "their guys" but he's almost always right.

Where he got it wrong on Trump (which he goes into in that article) is that he underestimated how weak the GOP elites were and how weak the Media turned out to be. Trump got the equivalent of $2 billion dollars of free advertising from the media. I just don't see that continuing once it's Trump vs. Clinton. In addition, the GOP never really threw its weight behind any of the candidates nor took any efforts to guide or control the process. If the GOP's going to run their primaries like this, let's just do away with the national parties and primaries and just put everyone on the ballot in November and have a run off.

Yep, Silver is very often right. I guess for me I'm more on board with statistical analysis than theories not backed by that type of data when it comes to what I'm prone to accept as 'analysis' from Silver.

One can argue their points rationally and even draw parallels, or whatever, it's what 'pundits' do every day. He does do that, but at the end of the day, without that rigorous statistical analysis that he's known for, to me, his opinions holds no more water than anyone else's.

What happens with the media going forward is anyone's guess. I doubt Trump's mouth will stop spewing, so they'll keep covering him I imagine. To the extent that they have been? I dunno, but if it drives ratings I don't see them stopping doing what's in their own best interests, as that's what they've been doing all along.

Silver, to his credit, seems to have recognized some of his/their failings wrt Trump this election.

Interesting read in that it discusses how they normally use models, but really didn't with Trump, acting more like pundits than statistical analysts.....

"Without having a model, I found, I was subject to a lot of the same biases as the pundits I usually criticize. In particular, I got anchored on my initial forecast and was slow to update my priors in the face of new data. And I found myself selectively interpreting the evidence and engaging in some lazy reasoning.6"

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump

 

[whitehall]

A better question is how the hell the party of JFK (ask not what your Country can do for you) came up with a socialist and the angry frustrated wife of a world class philanderer.

 

[dannyboys]

We will see...

Yes we will. YOU have been dead wrong in your 'predictions' from the day Trump announced.
You'll be batting a 1000 on Trump's Inauguration day.
Anyone here can go back and read your dumbass posts about Trump.
Pretty hilarious.

 

[eddiew]

We will see...

Mark Cuban just said on CNBC that trump has nothing to offer and there are those who follow him love that
No one knows what the drump ah is talking about most of the time Bash Bezos Bash zuckerberg??

 

[eddiew]

A better question is how the hell the party of JFK (ask not what your Country can do for you) came up with a socialist and the angry frustrated wife of a world class philanderer.

That frustrated wife is more a leader more intelligent than any of the 17 idiots you started out with and you nits managed to pick the worst of those 17

 

[dannyboys]

You know...conventional wisdom says Hillary won't be indicted.....

And neither will University Trump?

You poor thing.
Trump 'U' has a 98% approval rating among those who attended. That's higher than Harvard for Christ's sake!
President Trump will be one of the best American Presidents in history.

 

[g5000]

For eight years now, conservatives have claimed the reason they lost the 2008 and 2012 elections is because we nominated moderates instead of conservatives. This has been their operating premise for quite some time now.

Finally, this year we had several – SEVERAL – conservative candidates. So how was Donald Trump able to steal the nomination away from them?

Donald Trump has made his fortune by exploiting human weakness. His temples are a string of casinos which prey on hordes of the middle class and poor.

And then there is his reality television empire. As with all reality TV programs, Donald Trump’s shows are deliberately designed to draw out the worst behaviors in people. Greed, lust, envy, gluttony, and betrayal.

Donald Trump is not a conservative. He wasn’t even a Republican until last year. Before he announced himself, whenever he was asked a policy question, he invariably gave the far Left answer.

When asked about abortion, he was “very pro-choice” right up to the ninth month of pregnancy. He harmonized with Cindy Sheehan in wanting George Bush impeached for invading Iraq. He wanted the United States to cut and run from Iraq, a policy which conservatives stridently insist led to the rise of ISIS. He supports an Assault Weapons Ban. He supports single payer healthcare. He supports taxing the wealthy more. He said Bill Clinton was a great President, and that Hillary Clinton would make a great President. He said Hillary Clinton was the greatest Secretary of State ever, one year after Benghazi. His entire family donated to Hillary’s Senate and Presidential campaigns. He financed the Democratic National Committee chairman’s gubernatorial campaign in Virginia. A DNC chairman is as Democratic Establishment insider as it gets. He is a close personal friend of the Clintons.

The Republican Party had a whole host of conservative candidates vying for the nomination. And then one day, the Earth opened up and vomited out Donald Trump, claiming to be a Republican.

How did this man succeed?

Decades ago, the Republican Party began what has become known as “the Southern Strategy”. This was a program designed to draw the “negrophobe whites” out of the Democratic Party into the Republican Party, and thus transform the conservative Democratic South into the conservative Republican South.

The Republican Party has carefully and deliberately nurtured and fed the bigoted and racist rats who were lured out of the Democratic village and into the Republican village. And now it is time to pay the pied piper, and his name is Donald Trump.

This purveyor of human fears and failings zeroed in on the worst in the Republican Party and made the election about Mexicans and Muslims.

Policy discussions about abortion, gun rights, states rights, taxes, federal deficits, and all the core conservative principles went right out the window.

What were we talking about before Trump came along?

We were pretty excited about Dr. Ben Carson, who had bitch-slapped Barack Obama with the mighty hand of God at the National Prayer Breakfast.

We were thrilled over Governor Scott Walker, who had won three election victories in the face of a full frontal liberal assault!

We were talking about Ted Cruz, the immovable object in the path of the irresistible force of federal deficit spending.

We were hailing John Kasich, the only candidate on either slate who has not only balanced the federal budget, but gave us a surplus. And he has done the same as the governor of a key battleground state.

Donald Trump brags – actually BRAGS – that he turned us away from those conversations and made the contest about Mexicans and Muslims.

Is every Trump supporter a racist? You can always find exceptions who prove the rule in any political camp, but if you take a core sample of the Trump base, you will always find shreds of the old Confederate flag in their substance.

These are a positively schizophrenic people. They complain we didn’t nominate a conservative and that is why we lost, and yet they are supporting a limousine liberal. They say they wave and wear the Confederate flag because they are proud of their heritage, and then they go to great lengths to prove those old Confederates were Democrats who were racists and slave owners. This is their heritage, and they are proud of it!?!

They had a golden opportunity to select a true conservative as the Republican nominee, and instead chose a fearmongering huckster who has long vouchsafed liberal causes.

What will be their excuse for 2016?

 

[ClosedCaption]

It will remain a historical mystery as to why so many pseudo-con tards were taken in by a limousine liberal.

PhD theses will be written about this.

 

[ClosedCaption]

You know...conventional wisdom says Hillary won't be indicted.....

And neither will University Trump?

You poor thing.
Trump 'U' has a 98% approval rating among those who attended. That's higher than Harvard for Christ's sake!
President Trump will be one of the best American Presidents in history.

According to who? Trump pretending to be someone else said so?

 

[eddiew]

You know...conventional wisdom says Hillary won't be indicted.....

And neither will University Trump?

You poor thing.
Trump 'U' has a 98% approval rating among those who attended. That's higher than Harvard for Christ's sake!
President Trump will be one of the best American Presidents in history.

yes and pigs have wings and fly,,,,drump has nothing and that's why his imbeciles follow him

 

[JimH52]

By his own admission, Silver has been flummoxed by Trump all along.

He's quite often dead nuts on the screws, but right now it seems to me he's looking for explanations to fill the voids in his normally stats-driven analysis.

I don't read Silver, which I do, for that type of armchair nonsense. I come here for that shit....lol.

Silver's usually pretty on the nose when it comes to these things specifically because he approaches things in a fairly cold analytical way. He drives folks nuts when he's calling out nonsense among "their guys" but he's almost always right.

Where he got it wrong on Trump (which he goes into in that article) is that he underestimated how weak the GOP elites were and how weak the Media turned out to be. Trump got the equivalent of $2 billion dollars of free advertising from the media. I just don't see that continuing once it's Trump vs. Clinton. In addition, the GOP never really threw its weight behind any of the candidates nor took any efforts to guide or control the process. If the GOP's going to run their primaries like this, let's just do away with the national parties and primaries and just put everyone on the ballot in November and have a run off.

Yep, Silver is very often right. I guess for me I'm more on board with statistical analysis than theories not backed by that type of data when it comes to what I'm prone to accept as 'analysis' from Silver.

One can argue their points rationally and even draw parallels, or whatever, it's what 'pundits' do every day. He does do that, but at the end of the day, without that rigorous statistical analysis that he's known for, to me, his opinions holds no more water than anyone else's.

What happens with the media going forward is anyone's guess. I doubt Trump's mouth will stop spewing, so they'll keep covering him I imagine. To the extent that they have been? I dunno, but if it drives ratings I don't see them stopping doing what's in their own best interests, as that's what they've been doing all along.

Silver, to his credit, seems to have recognized some of his/their failings wrt Trump this election.

Interesting read in that it discusses how they normally use models, but really didn't with Trump, acting more like pundits than statistical analysts.....

"Without having a model, I found, I was subject to a lot of the same biases as the pundits I usually criticize. In particular, I got anchored on my initial forecast and was slow to update my priors in the face of new data. And I found myself selectively interpreting the evidence and engaging in some lazy reasoning.6"

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump

After reading this, I think he has learned a valuable lesson. His statements seem to lead me to the conclusion that the "Trump Phenomenon" is not long lasting.

"So when the next Trump-like candidate comes along in 2020 or 2024, might the conventional wisdom overcompensate and overrate his chances? It’s possible Trump will change the Republican Party so much that GOP nominations won’t be the same again. But it might also be that he hasn’t shifted the underlying odds that much. Perhaps once in every 10 tries or so, a party finds a way to royally screw up a nomination process by picking a Trump, a George McGovern or a Barry Goldwater. It may avoid making the same mistake twice — the Republican Party’s immune system will be on high alert against future Trumps — only to create an opening for a candidate who finds a novel strategy that no one is prepared for."

I think Nate's next predictions about Donnie will be much more measured, and consequently, much more accurate.

 

[JimH52]

If Trump is elected, the GOP will never be the same. Conservative values are out the window and anything goes. It is an irony that the GOP elites have been shouting that the party needs to be more conservative and they lost the last two Presidential elections cause they were not far enough to the right, and then they come along in 2016 and swoon over a liberal in conservative garb. It is hilarious!

Mitt know that the GOP is going down a road of no return. He knows that if Donnie is elected, 50+ years of conservative principles are out the window.

 

[Siete]

If Trump is elected, the GOP will never be the same. Conservative values are out the window and anything goes. It is an irony that the GOP elites have been shouting that the party needs to be more conservative and they lost the last two Presidential elections cause they were not far enough to the right, and then they come along in 2016 and swoon over a liberal in conservative garb. It is hilarious!

Mitt know that the GOP is going down a road of no return. He knows that if Donnie is elected, 50+ years of conservative principles are out the window.

too late for the Right regardless which way the Trump campaign goes ... their ship sailed 6 months ago.

 

[Fueri]

By his own admission, Silver has been flummoxed by Trump all along.

He's quite often dead nuts on the screws, but right now it seems to me he's looking for explanations to fill the voids in his normally stats-driven analysis.

I don't read Silver, which I do, for that type of armchair nonsense. I come here for that shit....lol.

Silver's usually pretty on the nose when it comes to these things specifically because he approaches things in a fairly cold analytical way. He drives folks nuts when he's calling out nonsense among "their guys" but he's almost always right.

Where he got it wrong on Trump (which he goes into in that article) is that he underestimated how weak the GOP elites were and how weak the Media turned out to be. Trump got the equivalent of $2 billion dollars of free advertising from the media. I just don't see that continuing once it's Trump vs. Clinton. In addition, the GOP never really threw its weight behind any of the candidates nor took any efforts to guide or control the process. If the GOP's going to run their primaries like this, let's just do away with the national parties and primaries and just put everyone on the ballot in November and have a run off.

Yep, Silver is very often right. I guess for me I'm more on board with statistical analysis than theories not backed by that type of data when it comes to what I'm prone to accept as 'analysis' from Silver.

One can argue their points rationally and even draw parallels, or whatever, it's what 'pundits' do every day. He does do that, but at the end of the day, without that rigorous statistical analysis that he's known for, to me, his opinions holds no more water than anyone else's.

What happens with the media going forward is anyone's guess. I doubt Trump's mouth will stop spewing, so they'll keep covering him I imagine. To the extent that they have been? I dunno, but if it drives ratings I don't see them stopping doing what's in their own best interests, as that's what they've been doing all along.

Silver, to his credit, seems to have recognized some of his/their failings wrt Trump this election.

Interesting read in that it discusses how they normally use models, but really didn't with Trump, acting more like pundits than statistical analysts.....

"Without having a model, I found, I was subject to a lot of the same biases as the pundits I usually criticize. In particular, I got anchored on my initial forecast and was slow to update my priors in the face of new data. And I found myself selectively interpreting the evidence and engaging in some lazy reasoning.6"

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump

After reading this, I think he has learned a valuable lesson. His statements seem to lead me to the conclusion that the "Trump Phenomenon" is not long lasting.

"So when the next Trump-like candidate comes along in 2020 or 2024, might the conventional wisdom overcompensate and overrate his chances? It’s possible Trump will change the Republican Party so much that GOP nominations won’t be the same again. But it might also be that he hasn’t shifted the underlying odds that much. Perhaps once in every 10 tries or so, a party finds a way to royally screw up a nomination process by picking a Trump, a George McGovern or a Barry Goldwater. It may avoid making the same mistake twice — the Republican Party’s immune system will be on high alert against future Trumps — only to create an opening for a candidate who finds a novel strategy that no one is prepared for."

I think Nate's next predictions about Donnie will be much more measured, and consequently, much more accurate.

I agree but not completely. I do think Trump is a one-off in someone rich enough and with enough name recognition that he can manage to get through the primary season with very little funding and/or support from the establishment, while running so far outside the party norms/positions that he might as well not be a republican (or dem) at all to the point where his own party has done literally everything they can to stop him.

BUT I do also think that politicians would have to be deaf, blind, and dumb not to realize that he has struck a nerve with voters that are sick of the establishment in DC. That doesn't mean they will change a thing, of course, because they won't, but I do think we will see candidates trying to figure out a way to court this group of voters in their own way, ie, bullshitting them that they too are 'anti-establishment'. I expect the bullshit to run far and deep along those lines going forward.....

 

[Staidhup]

Trump was the only alternative the GOP had to offset the lying and countless broken promises of the spineless beltway compassionate progressive conservative wing running the party.