Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception

[Sunsettommy]

Climate Realism

Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception
By James Taylor May 21, 2020

Excerpt:

The media are breathlessly touting a cheap new “study” falsely asserting climate change is causing an increase in strong hurricanes. In reality, the study relies on deception, unethical data manipulation, and aggressive misrepresentation of quite normal short-term trends to support its false claim.

The study, published by government-employed and government-funded researchers whose jobs and income depend on perpetuation of the alarmist Climate Delusion, has been reported – without any critical examination – by the New York Times, Washington Post, The Weather Channel, and others. The Environmental Defense Fund is even using the new study to raise money for itself.

The headline for the Washington Post article tells us what the alarmists are peddling in this new study: “The strongest, most dangerous hurricanes are now far more likely because of climate change, study shows.” The truth, as shown by objective scientific facts, is quite different.

The study’s authors report that an examination of tropical storms that formed between 1979 and 2017 indicates that after the first half of the 39-year time period, the chance of a given tropical storm growing to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) rose by 8 percent in each of the latter two decades.

LINK

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Not long ago I was told by the forums chief warmist/alarmist moonbat, that warmist/alarmists don't claim global warming is causing more or stronger hurricanes to form.....

 

[Augustine_]

Climate Realism

Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception
By James Taylor May 21, 2020

Excerpt:

The media are breathlessly touting a cheap new “study” falsely asserting climate change is causing an increase in strong hurricanes. In reality, the study relies on deception, unethical data manipulation, and aggressive misrepresentation of quite normal short-term trends to support its false claim.

The study, published by government-employed and government-funded researchers whose jobs and income depend on perpetuation of the alarmist Climate Delusion, has been reported – without any critical examination – by the New York Times, Washington Post, The Weather Channel, and others. The Environmental Defense Fund is even using the new study to raise money for itself.

The headline for the Washington Post article tells us what the alarmists are peddling in this new study: “The strongest, most dangerous hurricanes are now far more likely because of climate change, study shows.” The truth, as shown by objective scientific facts, is quite different.

The study’s authors report that an examination of tropical storms that formed between 1979 and 2017 indicates that after the first half of the 39-year time period, the chance of a given tropical storm growing to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) rose by 8 percent in each of the latter two decades.

LINK

======

Not long ago I was told by the forums chief warmist/alarmist moonbat, that warmist/alarmists don't claim global warming is causing more or stronger hurricanes to form.....

Thanks for the info, guy who doesn't know anything

 

[Sunsettommy]

Climate Realism

Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception
By James Taylor May 21, 2020

Excerpt:

The media are breathlessly touting a cheap new “study” falsely asserting climate change is causing an increase in strong hurricanes. In reality, the study relies on deception, unethical data manipulation, and aggressive misrepresentation of quite normal short-term trends to support its false claim.

The study, published by government-employed and government-funded researchers whose jobs and income depend on perpetuation of the alarmist Climate Delusion, has been reported – without any critical examination – by the New York Times, Washington Post, The Weather Channel, and others. The Environmental Defense Fund is even using the new study to raise money for itself.

The headline for the Washington Post article tells us what the alarmists are peddling in this new study: “The strongest, most dangerous hurricanes are now far more likely because of climate change, study shows.” The truth, as shown by objective scientific facts, is quite different.

The study’s authors report that an examination of tropical storms that formed between 1979 and 2017 indicates that after the first half of the 39-year time period, the chance of a given tropical storm growing to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) rose by 8 percent in each of the latter two decades.

LINK

======

Not long ago I was told by the forums chief warmist/alarmist moonbat, that warmist/alarmists don't claim global warming is causing more or stronger hurricanes to form.....

Thanks for the info, guy who doesn't know anything

????????

You admit you don't know anything?

 

[Hossfly]

Climate Realism

Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception
By James Taylor May 21, 2020

Excerpt:

The media are breathlessly touting a cheap new “study” falsely asserting climate change is causing an increase in strong hurricanes. In reality, the study relies on deception, unethical data manipulation, and aggressive misrepresentation of quite normal short-term trends to support its false claim.

The study, published by government-employed and government-funded researchers whose jobs and income depend on perpetuation of the alarmist Climate Delusion, has been reported – without any critical examination – by the New York Times, Washington Post, The Weather Channel, and others. The Environmental Defense Fund is even using the new study to raise money for itself.

The headline for the Washington Post article tells us what the alarmists are peddling in this new study: “The strongest, most dangerous hurricanes are now far more likely because of climate change, study shows.” The truth, as shown by objective scientific facts, is quite different.

The study’s authors report that an examination of tropical storms that formed between 1979 and 2017 indicates that after the first half of the 39-year time period, the chance of a given tropical storm growing to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) rose by 8 percent in each of the latter two decades.

LINK

======

Not long ago I was told by the forums chief warmist/alarmist moonbat, that warmist/alarmists don't claim global warming is causing more or stronger hurricanes to form.....

Thanks for the info, guy who doesn't know anything

????????

You admit you don't know anything?

Augustine has a PhD in Dummass

 

[ReinyDays]

We only have 50 years of scientifically accurate data concerning numbers and intensities of tropical cyclones ... only in the Age of Satellites do we get good information ... and this is far too short a time to make any claims about changes in either ...

It is theoretically sound to assume that a little global warming will cause tropical cyclones to be a little more intense ... as an extreme value we can use 10% more intense and so with Erma (2017) making landfall at 939 mb, in 100 years this same storm lands at 931 mb ... a trivial difference ... Tropical Storm Author (2020) reached maximum intensity at 991 mb just before transition, so in 100 years this storm reached 989 mb ... very trivial ...

In light of Arctic Amplification, it's sound to assume we'll be seeing fewer tropical cyclones of all intensities ... the force driving heat energy from the tropics to the poles will be less powerful, there will be less need to drive this energy away from the equator ... and we'll see a generalized "slow down" in convection and thus less turbid flow ... now, fewer Tropical Storms is a benefit to humans, commercial media ignores these smaller storms as lacking click-bait headlines, but these smaller storms can be just as damaging, sometimes more damaging than Hurricanes ... Houston had just received a sprinkling of rain when Harvey (2017) was downgraded below Hurricane status, all that massive flooding was due to a Tropical Storm ... not a Hurricane ... Sandy (2012) wasn't even a tropical cyclone when she made landfall in New Jersey ...

Definitions: tropical cyclone is the broadest and includes all cyclones formed in the tropics ... these are divided up by wind speed: tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes Cat 1, Cat 2, 3, 4 and 5 ... there is no Category 6 hurricane, wind speeds can't get beyond the frictional limits of the atmosphere, and Typhoon Tip (1979) may well be that limit ...

TR;DR -- it's too soon to say, we don't have enough data yet ...

 

[mamooth]

Not long ago I was told by the forums chief warmist/alarmist moonbat, that warmist/alarmists don't claim global warming is causing more or stronger hurricanes to form.....

Satan is the Lord of Lies, and you do his bidding gleefully. That doesn't bode well for your afterlife.

Over and over, I've told you AGW theory does not predict more hurricanes, but it does predict stronger hurricanes. And here you are, knowingly lying your ass off, pretending I've claimed AGW theory does not predict stronger hurricanes.

If you can't debate what I actually say -- and you never can -- just admit it. Lying about what I supposedly said doesn't fool anyone, and it makes you look corrupt and pathetic.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Not long ago I was told by the forums chief warmist/alarmist moonbat, that warmist/alarmists don't claim global warming is causing more or stronger hurricanes to form.....

Satan is the Lord of Lies, and you do his bidding gleefully. That doesn't bode well for your afterlife.

Over and over, I've told you AGW theory does not predict more hurricanes, but it does predict stronger hurricanes. And here you are, knowingly lying your ass off, pretending I've claimed AGW theory does not predict stronger hurricanes.

If you can't debate what I actually say -- and you never can -- just admit it. Lying about what I supposedly said doesn't fool anyone, and it makes you look corrupt and pathetic.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

It is OBVIOUS you didn't read the published paper. You just made a complete fool of yourself......

"........Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade."



I haven't said a word about the AGW conjecture in the thread or the other thread, gave it up because you ignored it many times in the past when I QUOTED them.

 

[mamooth]

It is OBVIOUS you didn't read the published paper. You just made a complete fool of yourself......

So like I said, the paper says hurricanes are getting more powerful. It's not saying they're getting more numerous.

Specifically what part of it was confusing you so much?

 

[Sunsettommy]

It is OBVIOUS you didn't read the published paper. You just made a complete fool of yourself......

So like I said, the paper says hurricanes are getting more powerful. It's not saying they're getting more numerous.

Specifically what part of it was confusing you so much?

Ha ha ha, you didn't read this carefully at all!

"........Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade."

bolding and size mine

You have repeatedly stated this and similar before:

Over and over, I've told you AGW theory does not predict more hurricanes, but it does predict stronger hurricanes. And here you are, knowingly lying your ass off, pretending I've claimed AGW theory does not predict stronger hurricanes.

AGW conjecture, strongly states increasing CO2 level in the atmosphere is a major cause of GW......................

You are truly clueless......

 

[mamooth]

bolding and size mine

And that bolded part agrees with what I said.

Again, what about it specifically is giving you such trouble?

 

[Sunsettommy]

bolding and size mine

And that bolded part agrees with what I said.

Again, what about it specifically is giving you such trouble?

No the AGW conjecture claims that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is the main cause of "global warming", they post a lot of emission scenarios (CO2 as the primary driver) along with projected warming trend models far into the future, CO2 is fingered as the main cause of the projected warming, that is straight out of the AGW conjecture playbook:

"...which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios...."

Can't you read this?

warming scenarios

They make clear they are connecting it to warming trends

Stop with the bullcrap!

Meanwhile the missing "hot spot" remains missing......

You fail with critical thinking.... again.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Funnier still is the fact that the equatorial region warmth in the Atlantic ocean is now waning just as it is in the Pacific Ocean..

Just as they thought hurricane season was going to get off to a real fast start and might be sever, the surface temps plummeted and hurricane formations have all but ceased.

 

[mamooth]

They make clear they are connecting it to warming trends

Yes, for the third time, they're connecting more powerful hurricanes to warming trends.

Exactly like I've always said.

So again, you're showing I'm right, and then inexplicably declaring you've proved me wrong. You're not right in the head.

Meanwhile the missing "hot spot" remains missing......

"MUST DEFLECT! MUST DEFLECT! MUST DEFLECT!"

I'll correctly take that as your admission that you've pooched it harder this time than you've ever pooched it.

 

[Newtonian]

Funnier still is the fact that the equatorial region warmth in the Atlantic ocean is now waning just as it is in the Pacific Ocean..

View attachment 343580

View attachment 343581

Just as they thought hurricane season was going to get off to a real fast start and might be sever, the surface temps plummeted and hurricane formations have all but ceased.

Not true. The Atlantic ocean temperatures in hurricane forming areas are above normal right now.

El Nino is another subject - related but not telling the oveall sea surface temperature.

 

[Newtonian]

They make clear they are connecting it to warming trends

Yes, for the third time, they're connecting more powerful hurricanes to warming trends.

Exactly like I've always said.

So again, you're showing I'm right, and then inexplicably declaring you've proved me wrong. You're not right in the head.

Meanwhile the missing "hot spot" remains missing......

"MUST DEFLECT! MUST DEFLECT! MUST DEFLECT!"

I'll correctly take that as your admission that you've pooched it harder this time than you've ever pooched it.

I'm not sure posting to Tommy is going to help him - he seems intent on presenting dis-information and misinterpretation of the data. But I am listening to you.

Today's weather channel broadcast on the 2017 Hurricane season linked above normal sea surface temperatures to long lasting very severe storms/hurricanes. I posted in detail just now on another thread in this section.

Not sure why Tommy cannot perceive your point: stronger hurricanes not more hurricanes. Simple enough point!

The problem is complex. Higher sea surface temperatures give more fuel to cause and sustain extremely powerful hurricanes - the 2017 season demonstrated this.

However, warmer temperatures over land can cause lower humidity which increases the likelihood of dry air intrusion which can weaken potential hurricanes. Also, higher global temperatures can increase wind speed overall - and thus increase wind shear which also destroys tropical systems.

Irma did not have dry air intrusion nor did she have wind shear - just higher sea surface temperatures as fuel which produced long lasting extremely powerful winds - not to mention storm surge made worse by rising sea level. Dorian in 2019 was even worse - no dry air intrusion and no wind shear and high sea surface temps as fuel.

 

[Sunsettommy]

They make clear they are connecting it to warming trends

Yes, for the third time, they're connecting more powerful hurricanes to warming trends.

Exactly like I've always said.

So again, you're showing I'm right, and then inexplicably declaring you've proved me wrong. You're not right in the head.

Meanwhile the missing "hot spot" remains missing......

"MUST DEFLECT! MUST DEFLECT! MUST DEFLECT!"

I'll correctly take that as your admission that you've pooched it harder this time than you've ever pooched it.

I'm not sure posting to Tommy is going to help him - he seems intent on presenting dis-information and misinterpretation of the data. But I am listening to you.

Today's weather channel broadcast on the 2017 Hurricane season linked above normal sea surface temperatures to long lasting very severe storms/hurricanes. I posted in detail just now on another thread in this section.

Not sure why Tommy cannot perceive your point: stronger hurricanes not more hurricanes. Simple enough point!

The problem is complex. Higher sea surface temperatures give more fuel to cause and sustain extremely powerful hurricanes - the 2017 season demonstrated this.

However, warmer temperatures over land can cause lower humidity which increases the likelihood of dry air intrusion which can weaken potential hurricanes. Also, higher global temperatures can increase wind speed overall - and thus increase wind shear which also destroys tropical systems.

Irma did not have dry air intrusion nor did she have wind shear - just higher sea surface temperatures as fuel which produced long lasting extremely powerful winds - not to mention storm surge made worse by rising sea level. Dorian in 2019 was even worse - no dry air intrusion and no wind shear and high sea surface temps as fuel.

Do you know who wrote this?

"Over and over, I've told you AGW theory does not predict more hurricanes, but it does predict stronger hurricanes. And here you are, knowingly lying your ass off, pretending I've claimed AGW theory does not predict stronger hurricanes. "

Yet in another thread he IGNORED evidence of FEWER stronger hurricanes, then chastises me with this contradictory response in the next post"

"And AGW theory doesn't predict more hurricanes, you look even more stupid than usual for citing that as evidence of something."

a reply to this showing a marked decrease of those stronger hurricanes he bleats about:

"The United States recently enjoyed a record 12-year respite from Category 3-5 hurricanes, ended finally by Harvey and Irma in 2017"

There was a TWELVE year drought of those stronger hurricanes making landfall,

===

Mamooth writes:

"Over and over, I've told you AGW theory does not predict more hurricanes, but it does predict stronger hurricanes. And here you are, knowingly lying your ass off, pretending I've claimed AGW theory does not predict stronger hurricanes."

red bolding mine

He claims I am pretending he claimed, "AGW theory does not predict stronger hurricanes", which I never did at all, yet this asshole claims I am lying over it. I NEVER stated that IPCC predicted anything about hurricanes, mammoth lied like hell. The liar never even make a case at all, he just says this type of statement over and over:

"And AGW theory doesn't predict more hurricanes, you look even more stupid than usual for citing that as evidence of something. "

===

He lies over and over, I am talking about THIS, which he keeps deflecting from:

"The United States recently enjoyed a record 12-year respite from Category 3-5 hurricanes, ended finally by Harvey and Irma in 2017. Violent tornadoes were far fewer during the last 35 years than during the 35 years before that, and the complete absence of violent twisters in 2018 was unprecedented in US history. Modern day floods and droughts were certainly no worse than past floods or the multi-decade droughts that devastated Anasazi, Mayan and other civilizations."

I have NEVER once argued of having more hurricanes, I keep showing there were FEWER Category3-5 hurricanes, the lying fucker ignored that to push a lie that I am claiming the IPCC predicted anything, I never even brought up the IPCC predictions at all.

POST 7 in the other thread:

Sunsettommy said:

"The United States recently enjoyed a record 12-year respite from Category 3-5 hurricanes, ended finally by Harvey and Irma in 2017

Mamooth replies,

And AGW theory doesn't predict more hurricanes, you look even more stupid than usual for citing that as evidence of something.

(Snipped my words)

Likewise, AGW theory doesn't predict more tornadoes.

Given your complete ineptness on the topic, you shouldn't be bothering the grownups.

Yes, I do understand that you're too stupid to understand how stupid you act here. That's what makes you so unintentionally funny."

===

The man never post evidence, he didn't here in this thread either.

He also deflected from my statement about a TWELVE YEAR Category3-5 drought, by saying AGW doesn't predict more hurricanes, but I was NOT talking about that at all.

=======

Go read this topic, to see that Mamooth NEVER once with evidence disproved anything I wrote:

The Real Climate Science Deniers

Read HIS post 7, a reply to my post 6, see his deflection from what I am talking about to something I didn't claim.

 

[mamooth]

Do you know who wrote this?

Look at you, soiling yourself in rage over me. Your sanity death spiral has begun.

Why so much butthurt? Because you can't understand that "hurricanes making landfall in the USA" is a very different category than "all hurricanes". Based on that error, you declared that hurricanes weren't getting stronger, even though the study you referenced clearly said they were.

A slow middle-schooler can grasp this stuff, but you can't. You're too dim to understand how dim you are. If someone looks up "Dunning-Kruger Syndrome", they'll find your photo there.