Billiejeens
Diamond Member
- Jun 27, 2019
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In 2016, President Donald Trump consistently underperformed in presidential election polls versus actual voting results leading up to his historic victory against Hillary Clinton.
Using the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls in the days before the election, polls underreported Trump’s support in key battleground states that he ended up winning.
In Florida, polls underreported Trump support by 2 percentage points, in North Carolina by 3.3 points, in Ohio by 5.5 points, in Pennsylvania by 3.5 points and Michigan by 4.1 points.
BJ- The pull quote -
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group, the only poll that called the 2016 race for Trump in Michigan, says in 2020 the race is a dead heat and that “social desirability bias” is “worse than it was four years ago.”
The goal was to make it socially unacceptable to support Trump. Instead, all that’s been accomplished is driving his support underground.
Using the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls in the days before the election, polls underreported Trump’s support in key battleground states that he ended up winning.
In Florida, polls underreported Trump support by 2 percentage points, in North Carolina by 3.3 points, in Ohio by 5.5 points, in Pennsylvania by 3.5 points and Michigan by 4.1 points.
Has cancel culture created a silent majority for Trump? You better believe it.
By Robert Romano In 2016, President Donald Trump consistently underperformed in presidential election polls versus actual voting results leading up to his historic victory against Hillary Clinton. Using the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls in the days before the election, polls...
dailytorch.com
BJ- The pull quote -
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group, the only poll that called the 2016 race for Trump in Michigan, says in 2020 the race is a dead heat and that “social desirability bias” is “worse than it was four years ago.”
The goal was to make it socially unacceptable to support Trump. Instead, all that’s been accomplished is driving his support underground.