Discussions about "the Jewish vote" are bound to fail. There is no such thing because Jews are not monolithic in their views. Some put their religious liberty at the top of a priority list, others put foreign policy higher, and some focus on welfare programs. Jews are individual and assuming that their identity as Jews is a uniting factor which can explain a vote is ridiculous. I'm an Orthodox Jew but you don't know how I voted. Let's say you asked me and I decided to say, you still wouldn't know WHY I voted that way. If I see subtle impacts of one candidate on something I value (it could be education, taxes or some other issue) I will use my vote -- but this might have nothing to do with my Jewish identity.
Trying to use mass statistics and assumptions is fruitless.