Government has OVER-reported job growth by 501,000

[mudwhistle]

I just think it would be neat if you guys would demonstrate some combination of macroeconomic knowledge and intellectual honesty.

~S~

Ol' Alan had a nice, big, fat role to play in the Meltdown.

I don't know how he shows his face in public.
.

He's married to that chick at CNN.

Andrea Mitchell. I think.

 

[mudwhistle]

Sure!

1. What is your interpretation of a 2.1% GDP, after we were promised twice that?
2. Why have Treasury yields crashed, down 40%?
3. Why is there virtually no growth-push inflation?

Bonus Questions!
4. Why has Trump been pushing the Fed to drop interest rates for months?
5. How has the exploding debt paid for a "strong" GDP?

Okay, go ahead. miketx, you too, I'm sure you can knock this out of the park with your standard comprehensive macroeconomic analysis.
.

Let me give it a try:

1. Trump lied. Everyone with above-room temperature IQ knew it.
2. Investors are looking for a save haven amidst an upcoming storm.
3. Demand is low, probably due to many new jobs paying abysmally, sufficient for necessities, if that. That's to say, small surprise there's no push inflation if 90% of growth goes to the top 1% or so.
4. Someone told him the Fed rate is holding the economy back. In the age of Trump, the "solution" to whatever problem isn't to change course, but to look for a scapegoat. The buck stops... somewhere.
5. It hasn't. The money went to folks, mostly, with a marginal propensity to spend not significantly different from zero.

You didn't answer one GD question.

 

[pinqy]

It's looking like the tax cuts, spending and exploding deficit didn't accomplish what they were after.

This would explain the lackluster GDP and lack of inflation push.

U.S. created 500,000 fewer jobs since 2018 than previously reported, new figures show

Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to 180,000 to 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.
.

So the actual number of jobs in March 2919 was 0.3% lower than estimated.
That’s a pretty accurate estimate, then, wouldn’t you say?

And here’s how the adjustments will be made:
The total nonfarm payroll employment level for April 2018 will be lowered by 41,750, May 2018 by 83,00, June 2018 by 125,250, .....February 2019 by 459,250, and March 2019 by 501,000

And they data from April 2019 on will be adjusted accordingly (the estimated percent change will be applied to the new estimates from April 2019 on)

 

[pinqy]

It's looking like the tax cuts, spending and exploding deficit didn't accomplish what they were after.

This would explain the lackluster GDP and lack of inflation push.

U.S. created 500,000 fewer jobs since 2018 than previously reported, new figures show

Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to 180,000 to 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.
.

Why don't you talk about Russian collusion....or racism.
This BS is a loser from the start.

Holy crap, that's your best deflection?

Well, it's early. The caffeine hasn't kicked in yet for me, either.
.

So you think that by claiming that the estimates are wrong by claiming more estimates are more right than the previous estimates....this is a rock-solid case that the economy isn't doing well????
Is that what you're trying to say????

The new data are not estimates. They are from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The data are derived directly from tax records.

 

[Agit8r]

Yeah, it's about time someone fessed up. CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement

 

[pinqy]

Yeah, it's about time someone fessed up. CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement

It happens every year.

 

[Tumblin Tumbleweed]

It's looking like the tax cuts, spending and exploding deficit didn't accomplish what they were after.

This would explain the lackluster GDP and lack of inflation push.

U.S. created 500,000 fewer jobs since 2018 than previously reported, new figures show

Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to 180,000 to 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.
.

I love a good story that bashes the Cult45 administration, but aren't revisions to BLM error margins (+ or - 100k, for example) a pretty common thing with all administrations? I've never trusted those numbers. I mean, Orange seems to be posting Obama-era numbers and Obama didn't need a tax cut to do it, but lot of factors seem to influence job creation numbers plus and minus that they seem like more of a rough estimate than a dependable, accurate accounting. It is the gov't, after all.

 

[Mac1958]

It's looking like the tax cuts, spending and exploding deficit didn't accomplish what they were after.

This would explain the lackluster GDP and lack of inflation push.

U.S. created 500,000 fewer jobs since 2018 than previously reported, new figures show

Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to 180,000 to 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.
.

I love a good story that bashes the Cult45 administration, but aren't revisions to BLM error margins (+ or - 100k, for example) a pretty common thing with all administrations? I've never trusted those numbers. I mean, Orange seems to be posting Obama-era numbers and Obama didn't need a tax cut to do it, but lot of factors seem to influence job creation numbers plus and minus that they seem like more of a rough estimate than a dependable, accurate accounting. It is the gov't, after all.

I don't look at this as an indictment of the Trump administration as much as I'm looking for clues as to why GDP and inflation are not higher given the announced unemployment rate.

That said, he and his sycophants keep blowing their horn about how great the economy is, and that isn't exactly the case.
.

 

[Tumblin Tumbleweed]

It's looking like the tax cuts, spending and exploding deficit didn't accomplish what they were after.

This would explain the lackluster GDP and lack of inflation push.

U.S. created 500,000 fewer jobs since 2018 than previously reported, new figures show

Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to 180,000 to 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.
.

I love a good story that bashes the Cult45 administration, but aren't revisions to BLM error margins (+ or - 100k, for example) a pretty common thing with all administrations? I've never trusted those numbers. I mean, Orange seems to be posting Obama-era numbers and Obama didn't need a tax cut to do it, but lot of factors seem to influence job creation numbers plus and minus that they seem like more of a rough estimate than a dependable, accurate accounting. It is the gov't, after all.

I don't look at this as an indictment of the Trump administration as much as I'm looking for clues as to why GDP and inflation are not higher given the announced unemployment rate.

That said, he and his sycophants keep blowing their horn about how great the economy is, and that isn't exactly the case.
.

The economy is great! For them. Regular people don't count.