Good Senate Polling Recently

[Nyvin]

So the Senate has been looking more positive for the democrats in the last 3-4 weeks for the most part. Hagan has returned to her normal lead of +1-3% in the polls, a Ras poll has shown her +6%...but, yeah, Ras....

It looks like Michigan is pretty much out of the GOP's reach now...with the last three polls in a row showing Peters ahead by +5%, +10%, and +9%. An online poll did show Land with +1%...but I REALLY don't put much stock into the YouGov online polls. They just have not proven themselves to be reliable or in line with pretty much the rest of the world (this goes both ways...not showing a bias to either party, just being very sketchy)

Iowa has gone from consecutive polls showing a tie to a THREE polls showing Braley having a small lead in the 1-4% range. This race is still extremely close, but the lead Braley has seems to be stable.

Some of the best news comes from Colorado....with Udall having a full 3.7% average lead over Gardner and the three most recent polls showing a lead of +2%, +4%, and +6% (and a yougov poll with Udall leading +3%). This was one of the closest races in the country just a month ago, but Udall has maintained a lead throughout, so it'll be an uphill battle for Gardner.

The two areas where the GOP is on the gain are Georgia and especially Kentucky, where the polling has been pretty harsh for the two Dems. I don't see pickups in those two states as likely anymore unfortunately.

If Kansas goes to Orman I can totally see this being the map outcome in November:

 

[JakeStarkey]

I still see 51 to 52 pub majority at this point.

 

[rightwinger]

So the Senate has been looking more positive for the democrats in the last 3-4 weeks for the most part. Hagan has returned to her normal lead of +1-3% in the polls, a Ras poll has shown her +6%...but, yeah, Ras....

It looks like Michigan is pretty much out of the GOP's reach now...with the last three polls in a row showing Peters ahead by +5%, +10%, and +9%. An online poll did show Land with +1%...but I REALLY don't put much stock into the YouGov online polls. They just have not proven themselves to be reliable or in line with pretty much the rest of the world (this goes both ways...not showing a bias to either party, just being very sketchy)

Iowa has gone from consecutive polls showing a tie to a THREE polls showing Braley having a small lead in the 1-4% range. This race is still extremely close, but the lead Braley has seems to be stable.

Some of the best news comes from Colorado....with Udall having a full 3.7% average lead over Gardner and the three most recent polls showing a lead of +2%, +4%, and +6% (and a yougov poll with Udall leading +3%). This was one of the closest races in the country just a month ago, but Udall has maintained a lead throughout, so it'll be an uphill battle for Gardner.

The two areas where the GOP is on the gain are Georgia and especially Kentucky, where the polling has been pretty harsh for the two Dems. I don't see pickups in those two states as likely anymore unfortunately.

If Kansas goes to Orman I can totally see this being the map outcome in November:

I agree

I think Kansas and NC will be the key

 

[Derideo_Te]

So the Senate has been looking more positive for the democrats in the last 3-4 weeks for the most part. Hagan has returned to her normal lead of +1-3% in the polls, a Ras poll has shown her +6%...but, yeah, Ras....

It looks like Michigan is pretty much out of the GOP's reach now...with the last three polls in a row showing Peters ahead by +5%, +10%, and +9%. An online poll did show Land with +1%...but I REALLY don't put much stock into the YouGov online polls. They just have not proven themselves to be reliable or in line with pretty much the rest of the world (this goes both ways...not showing a bias to either party, just being very sketchy)

Iowa has gone from consecutive polls showing a tie to a THREE polls showing Braley having a small lead in the 1-4% range. This race is still extremely close, but the lead Braley has seems to be stable.

Some of the best news comes from Colorado....with Udall having a full 3.7% average lead over Gardner and the three most recent polls showing a lead of +2%, +4%, and +6% (and a yougov poll with Udall leading +3%). This was one of the closest races in the country just a month ago, but Udall has maintained a lead throughout, so it'll be an uphill battle for Gardner.

The two areas where the GOP is on the gain are Georgia and especially Kentucky, where the polling has been pretty harsh for the two Dems. I don't see pickups in those two states as likely anymore unfortunately.

If Kansas goes to Orman I can totally see this being the map outcome in November:

I agree

I think Kansas and NC will be the key

If NC goes GOP then Orman will be the key swing vote. If he sides with the GOP they become the majority (R51 vs D49) and if he sides with the Dems then they become the majority (R50 vs D50 plus Biden.)

 

[BreezeWood]

.

without 50 democrats, Senator King of Main should be considered a Republican 2014.

 

[Nyvin]

.

without 50 democrats, Senator King of Main should be considered a Republican 2014.

No he shouldn't. He's left of center, and certainly not as conservative as Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins. I really don't think he has much policy interests in common with the vast majority of Republicans in the Senate.

 

[Derideo_Te]

.

without 50 democrats, Senator King of Main should be considered a Republican 2014.

No he shouldn't. He's left of center, and certainly not as conservative as Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins. I really don't think he has much policy interests in common with the vast majority of Republicans in the Senate.

As a northeastern Republican I don't see Sen King wanting to be pressured into supporting Ted Cruz's attempts to derail the US government. I believe he values his independence too much for that to be the case. If he does side with the GOP it will only be on issues of his own choosing.

 

[BreezeWood]

Angus King suggests he may caucus with GOP if it retakes Senate - The Washington Post

Apr 10, 2014

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), one of two independent senators who caucuses with Democrats, on Wednesday openly floated the possibility of siding with Republicans next year if they take control of the Senate.

“I’ll make my decision at the time based on what I think is best for Maine,” King told The Hill on Wednesday. He was asked about a potential switch after voting with Republicans to block a Democratic-backed bill that would seek to ensure pay equity among men and women.
...........

He was asked about a potential switch after voting with Republicans to block a Democratic-backed bill that would seek to ensure pay equity among men and women.

... openly floated the possibility of siding with Republicans next year if they take control of the Senate.


for whatever reason, most likely notoriety, King will be switching sides if the Senate flips ... might be better for the Zebra to be with his own type, were there 51 Ds they might consider tossing him overboard 2014.

.

 

[Shanty]

Angus King suggests he may caucus with GOP if it retakes Senate - The Washington Post

Apr 10, 2014

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), one of two independent senators who caucuses with Democrats, on Wednesday openly floated the possibility of siding with Republicans next year if they take control of the Senate.

“I’ll make my decision at the time based on what I think is best for Maine,” King told The Hill on Wednesday. He was asked about a potential switch after voting with Republicans to block a Democratic-backed bill that would seek to ensure pay equity among men and women.
...........

He was asked about a potential switch after voting with Republicans to block a Democratic-backed bill that would seek to ensure pay equity among men and women.

... openly floated the possibility of siding with Republicans next year if they take control of the Senate.


for whatever reason, most likely notoriety, King will be switching sides if the Senate flips ... might be better for the Zebra to be with his own type, were there 51 Ds they might consider tossing him overboard 2014.

.

Democrats wouldn't flip him overboard unless they had a 61 seat majority.

On edit: and probably not even then, as it would alienate a guy who could be an ally against the lunacy of the GOP.

 

[longknife]

2014 Senate Scorecard


This is today's prediction @ feedly your news. delivered.


Only 51 days to go!

 

[Pogo]

So the Senate has been looking more positive for the democrats in the last 3-4 weeks for the most part. Hagan has returned to her normal lead of +1-3% in the polls, a Ras poll has shown her +6%...but, yeah, Ras....

It looks like Michigan is pretty much out of the GOP's reach now...with the last three polls in a row showing Peters ahead by +5%, +10%, and +9%. An online poll did show Land with +1%...but I REALLY don't put much stock into the YouGov online polls. They just have not proven themselves to be reliable or in line with pretty much the rest of the world (this goes both ways...not showing a bias to either party, just being very sketchy)

Iowa has gone from consecutive polls showing a tie to a THREE polls showing Braley having a small lead in the 1-4% range. This race is still extremely close, but the lead Braley has seems to be stable.

Some of the best news comes from Colorado....with Udall having a full 3.7% average lead over Gardner and the three most recent polls showing a lead of +2%, +4%, and +6% (and a yougov poll with Udall leading +3%). This was one of the closest races in the country just a month ago, but Udall has maintained a lead throughout, so it'll be an uphill battle for Gardner.

The two areas where the GOP is on the gain are Georgia and especially Kentucky, where the polling has been pretty harsh for the two Dems. I don't see pickups in those two states as likely anymore unfortunately.

If Kansas goes to Orman I can totally see this being the map outcome in November:

Last poll I saw here had Hagan in a dead tie. She's making uncomfortable noises.

 

[Nyvin]

Last poll I saw here had Hagan in a dead tie. She's making uncomfortable noises.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

It's looking pretty strongly like Hagan has returned to her normal lead. It's not a big lead mind you, but it is consistent.

 

[rightwinger]

Recent shifts in NC and Kansas are making the supposed GOP Senate takeover less likely. Still two months to go.....Looooong time in a political race

 

[BreezeWood]

Democrats wouldn't flip him overboard unless they had a 61 seat majority.

On edit: and probably not even then, as it would alienate a guy who could be an ally against the lunacy of the GOP.

that is a worthy point, as appropriate as caucusing with whoever happens to be in the majority ...

.

 

[Nyvin]

Two more NC Senate polls came out today with Hagan leading +4% and a whopping +10%. I think the 10% might be a fluke, but it is still yet another poll showing Hagan ahead.

 

[rightwinger]

Looks like NH May be drawing even

 

[Nyvin]

Looks like NH May be drawing even

I really doubt it, it's barely a week after Brown's primary win. It's just a post-primary popularity surge. I expect it'll return to normal by early October.

 

[Nyvin]

ANOTHER poll on NC came out today with Hagan at +4%. That means out of the last "five" polls "four" have shown Hagan with leads of "at least" 4%. The one that went below 4% had Hagan leading 1%.

I think there is a GOP collapse occurring in NC right now.

The only recent poll showing Tillis leading is an unreliable online "YouGov" poll....which I really wouldn't put much faith into. It had Tillis at +1%.

 

[JakeStarkey]

If the GoP collapses at that level, the surrpise will be solid, because NC three years was as reda as red could be.

 

[longknife]

You liberals keep on trying. All your hoping won't change the outcome.

Dem candidates are running away from Obama at records speeds but he's still breathing over their shoulders and voters see him there.