Speculating about what is happening and might happen, while interesting, doesn't really tell us much.
And that's what this all is, really. Speculation.
Of course I would expect the CIA to be on the ground trying to figure out what's going on, and encouraging and aiding the rebels.
And, given that the CIA has a long long history of getting it wrong, and of being bamboozled by the natives, too, I don't doubt they're going to get it wrong here, as well.
Given the nature of this revolution, I'd be surprised if anybody gets it right, to be honest.
