Foolproof recession indicator is glowing red

iamwhatiseem

Gold Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2010
Messages
23,674
Reaction score
5,362
Points
280
Location
On a hill
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
 

debbiedowner

Gold Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2017
Messages
8,591
Reaction score
1,046
Points
275
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Might as well he's already bailing the farmer's out.
 

JGalt

Platinum Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Messages
28,997
Reaction score
9,110
Points
930
Location
SW Wisconsin
Buy Gold!!!

If the shit ever does the fan, my little round-nosed 170-grain pieces of cast lead/tin will be worth more than all the gold in the world.

The Amish will trade me many chickens, goats, and wives for them. :laughing0301:
 
Last edited:

P F Tinmore

Diamond Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2009
Messages
58,099
Reaction score
2,384
Points
1,815
We obviously have problems in our economy.
Trump has done nothing.
Obama did nothing.
Bush did nothing.

How can we expect anything to get better?
 

Toddsterpatriot

Diamond Member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
58,374
Reaction score
8,180
Points
2,030
Location
Chicago
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
 

JGalt

Platinum Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Messages
28,997
Reaction score
9,110
Points
930
Location
SW Wisconsin
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
 

Toddsterpatriot

Diamond Member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
58,374
Reaction score
8,180
Points
2,030
Location
Chicago
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested,

Are you counting in the $426.4 billion the mortgage handouts?
Or the auto bailout?
 

Toddsterpatriot

Diamond Member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
58,374
Reaction score
8,180
Points
2,030
Location
Chicago
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason.

Capital. TARP was to rebuild the capital of the banks. Fraud? That's funny!!!

Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

Never heard that. Got a link?

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations

Good. Put the crooks in jail.
 

JGalt

Platinum Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Messages
28,997
Reaction score
9,110
Points
930
Location
SW Wisconsin
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested,

Are you counting in the $426.4 billion the mortgage handouts?
Or the auto bailout?
TARP. The mortgage bailout was HARP, and the GM bailout was a different program.
 

Toddsterpatriot

Diamond Member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
58,374
Reaction score
8,180
Points
2,030
Location
Chicago
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested,

Are you counting in the $426.4 billion the mortgage handouts?
Or the auto bailout?
TARP. The mortgage bailout was HARP, and the GM bailout was a different program.
Yes, the bank portion of TARP was hugely profitable.
 

JGalt

Platinum Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Messages
28,997
Reaction score
9,110
Points
930
Location
SW Wisconsin
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested,

Are you counting in the $426.4 billion the mortgage handouts?
Or the auto bailout?
TARP. The mortgage bailout was HARP, and the GM bailout was a different program.
Yes, the bank portion of TARP was hugely profitable.
The problem was, it was hugely profitable for those who were politically-connected to Obama and the Democrat Party. There was significant trading among the "connected", thirty days in advance of the announcement the TARP bailout. Stanford University did an entire study on it...

Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades
 

KissMy

Free Breast Exam
Joined
Oct 10, 2009
Messages
15,223
Reaction score
2,638
Points
255
Location
In your head
Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

What will be the fix this time?
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires that resulted in the widest earnings gap in American history and rocketed stock prices beyond absurd.

That was never going to fix the problem of an entire economic industry dependent on ever rising stock values despite reality.

Will the FEDS and Trump do the same as Obama/Bush bail out the super corporations/investment banks to maintain the gross over valuation?
That just means there will be a recession in 18 months if the Fed does not act, but it already has acted. Also the recession should not be as bad as the last disaster, because there is no sub-prime housing bubble. However Gold will continue to rise due to this & exploding deficit. Gold will make a new high!
 

Toddsterpatriot

Diamond Member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
58,374
Reaction score
8,180
Points
2,030
Location
Chicago
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested,

Are you counting in the $426.4 billion the mortgage handouts?
Or the auto bailout?
TARP. The mortgage bailout was HARP, and the GM bailout was a different program.
Yes, the bank portion of TARP was hugely profitable.
The problem was, it was hugely profitable for those who were politically-connected to Obama and the Democrat Party. There was significant trading among the "connected", thirty days in advance of the announcement the TARP bailout. Stanford University did an entire study on it...

Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades
The problem was, it was hugely profitable for those who were politically-connected to Obama and the Democrat Party.

I'm talking about bank TARP, not the "stimulus".

There was significant trading among the "connected", thirty days in advance of the announcement the TARP bailout.

Insiders were buying while the market was tanking? And that's only possible with inside information?
 

Shrimpbox

Gold Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2013
Messages
3,920
Reaction score
1,050
Points
245
Location
Carrabelle, fl. 60 miles s of tallahassee
The problem with the recession indicator is that, as Glenn Beck pointed out, is that the same inversion has also happened before where no recession followed it. They don’t tell you that.
 

Mac1958

Diamond Member
Joined
Dec 8, 2011
Messages
66,708
Reaction score
13,162
Points
2,210
Location
Politics don't make me emotional.
Ah, Fox Business. That would explain the irresponsible hyperbole.

No, an inverted Yield Curve is not a "foolproof recession indicator".

The curve has indeed inverted before each of the last seven recessions, but it has also inverted without a recession following.

It's an interesting and useful data point, that's it. There are many.
.
 

Pavel Svinchnik

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 28, 2018
Messages
117
Reaction score
19
Points
56
Here's an interesting take on the yield curve inversion:

The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion

The point it makes is that the portion of U.S. bonds owned by central banks has grown to about 48%, so it is no longer a true indicator of market sentiment but is distorted by political needs of the central banks.
 

Toddsterpatriot

Diamond Member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
58,374
Reaction score
8,180
Points
2,030
Location
Chicago
Here's an interesting take on the yield curve inversion:

The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion

The point it makes is that the portion of U.S. bonds owned by central banks has grown to about 48%, so it is no longer a true indicator of market sentiment but is distorted by political needs of the central banks.
upload_2019-8-16_9-16-10.png


I don't agree with their math.
Foreign banks (officially) hold $4.1 trillion.
The Fed holds about $2.1 trillion.
Debt held by the public is about $16.5 trillion.

Less than 38% owned by central banks.
 

The Banker

Gold Member
Joined
Oct 24, 2017
Messages
1,067
Reaction score
350
Points
210
Location
Boston
Bush/Obama admin spent over a $trillion bailing out the central banks, investment groups and $billionaires

What are you talking about?
If you meant the bank portion of TARP, the banks paid that back at a huge profit to the Treasury.
Only partially correct. By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested, earning a measly $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6%. When you adjust that for inflation, what you have in effect, is a loss.

Then there was the fraud. Some financial institutes were accused of not using the loaned dollars for its intended reason. Others further abused investors after the TARP legislation was passed by telling investors their money was invested in the federal TARP financial bailout program and other securities that did not exist.

In a 2011 quarterly report to Congress, it was reported that there were more than 150 ongoing criminal and civil investigations. There had already been the criminal convictions of 28 defendants (19 had already been sentenced to prison), and civil cases naming 37 individuals and 18 corporate/legal entities as defendants. It had recovered $151 million, and prevented $553 million going to Colonial Bank, which failed.
By 2014, the US Treasury recovered funds totaling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion that was invested,

Are you counting in the $426.4 billion the mortgage handouts?
Or the auto bailout?
TARP. The mortgage bailout was HARP, and the GM bailout was a different program.
Yes, the bank portion of TARP was hugely profitable.
The problem was, it was hugely profitable for those who were politically-connected to Obama and the Democrat Party. There was significant trading among the "connected", thirty days in advance of the announcement the TARP bailout. Stanford University did an entire study on it...

Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades
AHAHAHAH!!!

You dumb disgrace.

TARP was signed by Bush you retard. You are an embarrassment. You blame Obama for Bush's problems. You are fake news and everything you say is suspect. What a joke. Ty[ical idiot Trumper, you make up fake news and try to blame Obama for things Bush did...

Explain to us how people "connected to Obama" gained from Bush's TARP bill that was enacted before Obama was even elected!!!! AHAHAHAAH!!!

Just another example of somebody too stupid to know what is going on on the world.
 
Last edited:

Most reactions - Past 7 days

Top