China says this a US problem, Trump wants China to apply pressure:
Yet there are signs that feeling is shifting in
China. When its foreign ministry spokesperson described current problems as “complicated, sensitive and grim”, it could have been been a Facebook relationship status for Beijing and Pyongyang. An always suspicious alliance took a sharp turn for the worse with Kim’s accession; he has never met China’s president, Xi Jinping, who is said to regard him with disdain, if not contempt.
Recent events have sharpened Beijing’s antagonism. Calls for stronger action against its neighbour are growing. This week an influential academic suggested that China may have no choice but to hold talks with the US on contingency planning for war – an idea it has rejected repeatedly – even given the likely backlash from Pyongyang.
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Cheng Xiaohe, another Chinese expert on the relationship, says stinging criticism of that proposal indicates the depth of divisions over
North Korea. But he adds that the call shows more people are realising how serious the situation has become, and that popular opinion is increasingly unfavourable to the north. Sentiment about the joint “war to resist American aggression and defend Korea (aka the Korean war) is fading; concerns about the destabilisation of the region and even possible contamination from nuclear tests grow.
North Korea’s programme has increased the tensions and risk of conflict. It has led to the deployment of anti-missile defences that China believes could affect its own military capabilities, and to calls for Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear deterrents. It encourages greater US engagement in the region. None of these are in China’s interests.
That does not mean Beijing will shut off the crude oil supplies on which its neighbour relies, despite the US secretary of state’s
renewed push on Friday. China wants the north to change course, not collapse: it has no desire to lose its buffer and see US troops on its doorstep. Nor does it want to see refugees flooding across its border, or a civil war and unsecured nuclear weapons next door. (It may also be unconvinced – as are some experts – that even a
total oil ban could force North Korea to change course.)
Smaller shifts in policy look more plausible, but not any time soon: with a crucial party congress to next month, Chinese decision makers are
preoccupied with domestic politics. And
they are sceptical about the tendency to rely on sanctions as a cure-all.
Above all, Beijing still sees this as primarily a US problem, requiring a primarily US solution. And it is right. Pyongyang wants a security guarantee from Washington. Donald Trump’s inconsistencies and bellicose rhetoric, so oddly reminiscent of Pyongyang’s, are inflaming the situation. War remains a very unlikely outcome. But he has substantially increased the risk of miscalculations and misunderstandings.
China’s mood on North Korea is toughening – despite Trump’s bluster | Tania Branigan