Election Reform and the Spoiler Effect

The whole scheme is to keep ruling class scum in general, and leftists in particular, in power.

If it weren't, then dirtballs like Murkowski wouldn't push it so hard.
The dems in D.C. are fighting it, because it might result in the same thing that happened in AK, but the other way around.

If you need a complicated spreadsheet to show how the votes were assigned to convince the electorate of the winner, that's a fucked up counting system.

Voters are used to hearing "candidate A received X votes, candidate B received Y votes, candidate A is the winner". Election over.
 
The whole scheme is designed to assign third party ballots to one of the major party candidates, and thereby eliminate the spoiler effect.
And why is this bad? People would be able to vote for their favorite candidate without the concern that they’re just throwing their vote away by voting for a less popular candidate. If their candidate wins, awesome. If they don’t win, oh well, they tried, at least their vote still counts against the one they didn’t like.

As often as not, the declared winner would not have won a straight-up vote between the last two remaining candidates.
What? How so?
 
The whole scheme is designed to assign third party ballots to one of the major party candidates, and thereby eliminate the spoiler effect.
How so? In traditional voting, third party votes are essentially ignored.
As often as not, the declared winner would not have won a straight-up vote between the last two remaining candidates.
Why? On what logical basis do you make either one of these claims. Any?
 
The dems in D.C. are fighting it, because it might result in the same thing that happened in AK, but the other way around.
No they're not fighting it...They're embracing it, because it muddies the water.

The results have been either demoncrats or shitty "republicans" like Murkowski.
If you need a complicated spreadsheet to show how the votes were assigned to convince the electorate of the winner, that's a fucked up counting system.
A spreadsheet and an algorithm....As I said: on person, 1.78251957034 votes.
 
No they're not fighting it...They're embracing it, because it muddies the water.
No, I meant actual D.C. democrats. RCV is on the ballot there, and dems oppose it.


 
No they're not fighting it...They're embracing it, because it muddies the water.
Not in Colorado. Here the Democratic party is the staunchest opponent.
 
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How so? In traditional voting, third party votes are essentially ignored.
"How so" is because most of the minor party votes will get assigned to a major party candidate.

When I vote for a minor party candidate, I'm doing it because I do not support the major party candidates. I don't want my vote reassigned, so I will not participate in RCV.

I don't give rankings to bad candidates. I want to eliminate them in the primary. And I want closed primaries, so the candidate for that party is actually picked by the people who will be voting for them.

We will see what happens in AK next week. I predict they will scrap RCV and go back to what they were doing before.
 
"How so" is because most of the minor party votes will get assigned to a major party candidate.

When I vote for a minor party candidate, I'm doing it because I do not support the major party candidates. I don't want my vote reassigned, so I will not participate in RCV.
So put a 1 next to your minor candidate of choice and don’t rank any of the other candidates.

You don’t have to have your vote re-assigned. Other people who do want it, do get it.

Everyone is happy. Problem solved.
 
"How so" is because most of the minor party votes will get assigned to a major party candidate.
Ok. At least they'll get assigned to their preferred party, rather than tossed aside.
When I vote for a minor party candidate, I'm doing it because I do not support the major party candidates. I don't want my vote reassigned, so I will not participate in RCV.
Ok. You're not required to rank. They can tosd yours aside if you like.
We will see what happens in AK next week. I predict they will scrap RCV and go back to what they were doing before.
Maybe. The partisans have been fighting it vigorously.
 
So put a 1 next to your minor candidate of choice and don’t rank any of the other candidates. Problem solved.
That's what a lot of people do, but the GOP vote was split between two candidates.

Just wait until next week, and we will see what Alaskans think about it.
 
That's what a lot of people do, but the GOP vote was split between two candidates.

Just wait until next week, and we will see what Alaskans think about it.
Are they incapable of following simple instructions?

“Put a 1 next to your favorite candidate. Put a 2 next to your second favorite candidate.”

It’s really not that complicated.
 
Lurking at the heart of our extreme political dysfunction is a fundamentally flawed election process. The way we currently vote, everyone picks their favorite candidate, and whoever gets the most votes wins. This is called "plurality voting". Sometimes referred to as "first past the post" voting.

It sounds reasonable enough, and if there are only two candidates running it kind of works. But it breaks down when there are more than two candidates. It creates a situation where a candidate can win, even though a majority of the voters don't like them. This problem is called the "spoiler effect". And it happens fairly often.

One good example is the 1992 US Presidential Election. In that election there were three high-profile candidates. Bush Sr., Bill Clinton and Ross Perot. Conservative votes were split between Bush Sr.(37.4%) and Perot(18.9%). Bill Clinton won the election with only 43% of the vote - even though the majority of voters would have preferred a conservative President.

It happened again in 2000 when the liberal vote was split between Gore and Nader. Most Nader voters would have chosen Gore over Bush - Gore would have likely won if not for Nader being in the race.

The problem with the spoiler effect is broader than just electing the wrong candidate. To win, the major parties must discourage any like minded candidates from running in the same race. That's why the two major parties viciously attack third party candidates, even when they mostly agree with them - especially when they mostly agree with them. They actually encourage third party candidates that they disagree with, because that will split the vote of the other side. It's a backassward mess that causes a lot of unnecessary acrimony.

One way around the spoiler effect is requiring the winner to have at least 50% of the vote. Some states have implemented this (eg Georgia). The idea is that if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the election, the "spoilers" are eliminated from the ballot, and everyone votes again in a runoff election. With only two candidates left, it's a certainty that one of them will get 50% of the vote.

But these runoff elections are expensive, time consuming (we might not know the results for weeks or months) and suffer from "voter fatigue" - the turnout for the runoffs is generally much lower than the initial vote. They also exclude third or fourth place vote-getters, who might have actually been the consensus winner if they'd eliminated the "spoilers" one at a time, instead of all at once.

So runoffs neutralize the spoiler effect, but most states have decided they aren't affordable and not worth the extra trouble.

This is the problem that vote-ranking systems solve. Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) or Ranked Choice Voting(RCV), lets voters rank the candidates in order of their preference. Essentially, the are casting their votes in potential runoff elections when they first go to the polls. You can, for example, say "Nader is my favorite, but if he's not close, I'd rather have Gore than Bush. Or "Perot is my favorite, but if he doesn't get a majority, I'd rather my vote go to Bush than Clinton".

It's a subtle change, but it has some really nice benefits. First of all, the major parties no longer have incentive to attack third party candidates. Instead of alienating third party voters, the major parties will have incentive to make an honest appeal to them. It also does away with the lesser of two evils conceit. I you really think Harris and Trump both suck, you can give your first place vote to a candidate you do like, yet still have some say if, in the end, Harris and Trump are the only two left.

This kind of reform is happening all over the country - mostly at the grass roots, local level. People recognize the improvement and like having a more expressive vote. But the two entrenched parties have taken note, and are fighting it vigorously. Turns out they kind of like seeing us limited to two choices (as long as they are one of the choices). They claim that the ballot is too complicated and that voters are too stupid to rank the candidates. Or they suggest it's a plot by the other side to trick voters! They site case studies where their candidate didn't win - which of course means the system is bad. :rolleyes: All of their complaints, that I've heard, fall apart on examination. Most of them don't even make sense because they don't understand how RCV works. They just know it will get rid of the lesser-of-two-evils fearmongering - and that's all they know.
Still a “no” on ranked choice voting the way you describe it. For one thing, it’s possible for nearly everyone’s 2nd choice to get elected.

Lets say that the election isn’t for President but something benign...baseball teams.

Vote for the best baseball club...

3 candidates.
Yankees
Dodgers
Savannah Bananas (google them).

All 3 teams are on the ballot. Voting begins. The most voters will put either the Yanks or the Dodgers 1 and the other 3 with the SB’s #2 and some of the folks will vote for the SB’s #1. If neither the Yanks or the Dodgers get 50%, the SB’s will likely win the election eventhough they are clearly not the best baseball club.
 
Are they incapable of following simple instructions?

“Put a 1 next to your favorite candidate. Put a 2 next to your second favorite candidate.”

It’s really not that complicated.
Do you think most Trump or Harris votes will put Trump or Harris as their 2nd choice?
 
What fact am I denying? You're simply making claims without supporting them. The articles you posted had nothing to say about this "single party rule" thing you keep repeating. How does RCV promote single party rule? That answer you're avoiding is: it doesn't.
I gave you three links showing facts against RCV and yet you say I'm not supporting my thoughts against RCV.
 
It’s really not that complicated.

If the preferred candidate in one election is a Democrat, and the preferred candidate in the next election is a Republican, then a Democrat and Republican will split the Senate in that state.

That would be the case regardless of how we vote, whether we use ranked-choice voting or not.
I see what you're doing here. You're trying to exhaust me by saying the same old shit until I get tired of your BS and then you can claim you won the debate.
 
I see what you're doing here. You're trying to exhaust me by saying the same old shit until I get tired of your BS and then you can claim you won the debate.
I’m just discussing the topic. I find your explanation lacking and I explained why.

The fact remains that voters may support a Democrat in one election and Republicans in the next election. That’s not a matter of opinion. That’s a fact.

In the event that this happens, say in a swing state like Pennsylvania, explain to me how a voting system like RCV would cause the Democrat to win both said elections and result in one-party rule.

You can’t explain that. Because that doesn’t make sense.
 
I’m just discussing the topic. I find your explanation lacking and I explained why.

The fact remains that voters may support a Democrat in one election and Republicans in the next election. That’s not a matter of opinion. That’s a fact.

In the event that this happens, say in a swing state like Pennsylvania, explain to me how a voting system like RCV would cause the Democrat to win both said elections and result in one-party rule.

You can’t explain that. Because that doesn’t make sense.
I already explained it multiple times. I'm not going to keep on explaining it. If you want to hear me say it over and over just go back and reread my posts on it as many times as you want. Maybe you will eventually get it.
 
I don’t know if it’s most, but some definitely would.
I think it is a very small percentage.

Also, what do you do with states where the candidate pools are different due to either desire of the candidates or if they don’t qualify. RFK couldn’t make it on the ballot in many states.

It can put you back into the “spoiler” scenario. Lets say that you have a very popular governor...like Jeb Bush was or like George W. Bush was in Texas and a national candidate like the blob. Does either one run for President in Florida or Texas to simply be a spoiler to Trump?
 
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