Old Rocks
Diamond Member
Well, here it is, we are definately warmer, but very wet. Not at all our normal dry El Nino year so far.
Be very interesting to see what other surprises this year will hold.
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) encompassing the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index increased slightly with the most recent value reaching +1.8oC (Fig. 2). Consistent with this warmth, equatorial upper-ocean heat content anomalies remained positive (Fig. 3). Subsurface temperature anomalies exceeded +2oC across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4), with the largest departures seen in the eastern part of the basin at the end of the month. Equatorial low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were also consistent with El Niño, along with a continuation of suppressed convection over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.
The models continue to disagree on the eventual peak strength of El Niño (Fig. 5). At this time, it is expected that the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST average will exceed +1.5oC during the winter (e.g. November-December-January and December-January-February). Regardless of its precise peak strength, El Niño is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months. Most models indicate that SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niño will persist through April-May-June 2010.
Be very interesting to see what other surprises this year will hold.
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) encompassing the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index increased slightly with the most recent value reaching +1.8oC (Fig. 2). Consistent with this warmth, equatorial upper-ocean heat content anomalies remained positive (Fig. 3). Subsurface temperature anomalies exceeded +2oC across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4), with the largest departures seen in the eastern part of the basin at the end of the month. Equatorial low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were also consistent with El Niño, along with a continuation of suppressed convection over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.
The models continue to disagree on the eventual peak strength of El Niño (Fig. 5). At this time, it is expected that the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST average will exceed +1.5oC during the winter (e.g. November-December-January and December-January-February). Regardless of its precise peak strength, El Niño is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months. Most models indicate that SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niño will persist through April-May-June 2010.
