Americans buy foreign goods with American dollars, which are then transferred to foreign account holders. The foreign account holder can only do four things with those dollars: 1) turn around and buy American goods, 2) invest them in American securities, 3) hold them in perpetuity and 4) exchange them for another currency.
The fact that a current account deficit exists demonstrates that foreigners are investing/holding more dollars than purchasing American goods. [1] Investments come back to American companies or governments in the form of capital, not consumer goods, which drives economic growth. [2] Foreigners who hold onto dollars and never use them are essentially trading real consumer goods for green pieces of paper, which is actually a net gain for American consumers. [3] Rather, the current accounts should be evaluated based on volume, not deficit or surplus.
Is a current account deficit good or bad for the economy? | Investopedia
Is a current account deficit good or bad for the economy?
[1] This is one reason why Trump is trying to force foreign gov'ts to reduce their tariffs on our stuff coming into their countries. Lower tariffs imposed on our stuff makes them more competitive in terms of price, so we sell more of our stuff to others and as a result the negative trade imbalance goes down. You can ***** about his methods, maybe there's a better way but it's worth noting that no other president has found a better way of doing it.
[2] Foreign investments helps spur our economic growth. That's why Investments are a factor in determining the GDP number, and foreign investment is a part of that.
[3] If they didn't invest those dollars here and didn't buy anything with them, then that money is just lying fallow and doing nothing. I would think those dollars would be in a US bank account somewhere earning interest if nothing else, but then that is actually an investment cuz now that bank can loan that money out to a US business or person and more goods and services could then be produced.
Trade deficits in and of themselves really don't matter, it's what you do with those foreign products that really counts. If it's all consumption stuff then you really haven't increased US productivity in any way, right? But if you bought foreign materials and built and sold a product then it's a positive increase in GDP that is presumably greater than what you paid for the foreign materials. Consider this:
In terms of trade surpluses, the U.S. achieved its high-water mark in 1975. That was the last year it enjoyed a trade surplus – and a year when GDP growth was negative at -0.2%. The surplus was over $12 billion, but would anyone describe the U.S. economy at the time as something to emulate? It was a period when the nation seemed to be trapped in low economic growth, with high unemployment and inflation rates. Indeed, one of the reasons the U.S. had a trade surplus is because Americans had relatively little money to spend on foreign goods. Was the nation better off for it?
The United States isn’t the only country where trade balances do not reflect economic growth or wealth creation. If trade surpluses were a magic wand to make wealth appear, why hasn’t it done so in Angola, Ghana, Mongolia, Mozambique, or Uzbekistan, all of which enjoyed trade surpluses last year? (2016) For that matter, why has Japan’s continuing string of trade surpluses failed to lift its economy out of a 20-year-plus cycle of tepid growth and deflationary malaise? (A trend that Trump singularly failed to forecast in 1989, when he said: “Japan is sucking the blood out of us.” According to the CIA World Factbook, the U.S. achieved growth rates of 1.6, 2.6. and 2.4 percent over the past three years. Slow but steady, but they look positively dazzling compared to Japan’s GDP growth rates of 0.0, 0.5 and 0.5 percent during the same period.)
Very thoughtful post.
But what if there is a fifth option with the money: to buy foreign stocks to upgrade foreign plants and reduce the US economy when the US plants have less capital to stay competitive?
Gotta be honest here, I ain't understanding your point here. Admittedly I'm not an economist, but are you suggesting that a country like China for instance, could go to an African country and invest the surplus US dollars they have to build some kind of plant that produces a product that the African country can then ship to the US and sell it here at a lower price than our domestic companies can? It's possible, but:
1. What do the Chinese get out of it? Assuming the above scenario is true, they spent US dollars but they get US dollars back when we buy the African product, whatever it is. Might pay off for them in the long run if everything works out, and it would also be a good thing for the local African country too. More jobs, right? Who (the employees) BTW might use the US dollars they get to buy US goods and services, so it ain't only a one-way street.
2. The US economy is pretty damn big, I don't think whatever total investments the Chinese or anyone else makes in a foreign land is going to make a difference to us. We are just too damn big. Now it could be that IF the foreign plant does produce a product that is cheaper than what we can do, then so much the better for us. [Note: it's gotta be cheaper after they spend the money to ship their stuff here, and these days that expense is not trivial.] The American consumer will have more money to spend on something else and our standard of living just went up. Or we could just save the money or invest it here. Maybe that means the US companies that are being under-priced can find ways to compete, and maybe not. In which case the US businesses change their business model or automate, or possibly go out of business and they use their capital to produce something else. I think they call it creative destruction or something like that. Shit happens.
Bottom line, a trade deficit is not necessarily the problem, it's the underlying causes that are the problem. The US consumer does not save or invest enough money, we spend too much of our money and even go into too much debt to buy stuff that we want. Many times it's stuff we don't really need that doesn't make us more productive and THAT is the problem.