Current 2016 Presidential Polling in Florida

[Statistikhengst]

Hey Rep Frog Boy....send her some WHITENING STRIPS for those horrible colored teeth....You'd think with her money, she could buy a COMPLETE MAKEOVER, and not look like a prune!

This thread is about electoral data, not about someone's teeth.

Grow up and post like an adult.

 

[Vigilante]

Hey Rep Frog Boy....send her some WHITENING STRIPS for those horrible colored teeth....You'd think with her money, she could buy a COMPLETE MAKEOVER, and not look like a prune!

This thread is about electoral data, not about someone's teeth.

Grow up and post like an adult.

Yes, Nixon thought the TV debate was all about important shit, until the poll after the show told him, his NO MAKEUP FUCK UP probably cost him the election....Most that heard the debate on the radio said Nixon put JFK away! ... You're right, DON'T tell her she looks like the wicked witch...NO PROBLEMO!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hey Rep Frog Boy....send her some WHITENING STRIPS for those horrible colored teeth....You'd think with her money, she could buy a COMPLETE MAKEOVER, and not look like a prune!

This thread is about electoral data, not about someone's teeth.

Grow up and post like an adult.

Yes, Nixon thought the TV debate was all about important shit, until the poll after the show told him, his NO MAKEUP FUCK UP probably cost him the election....Most that heard the debate on the radio said Nixon put JFK away! ... You're right, DON'T tell her she looks like the wicked witch...NO PROBLEMO!

How old are you? 12?

 

[Vigilante]

This thread is about electoral data, not about someone's teeth.

Grow up and post like an adult.

Yes, Nixon thought the TV debate was all about important shit, until the poll after the show told him, his NO MAKEUP FUCK UP probably cost him the election....Most that heard the debate on the radio said Nixon put JFK away! ... You're right, DON'T tell her she looks like the wicked witch...NO PROBLEMO!

How old are you? 12?

If you didn't post that picture of the Hildebeasty, I wouldn't have noticed how the comparison with Nixon's polls went..... Apparently, I spoiled your circle jerk over a poll that means nothing to the event over 2 years away... Go back to the Rep Stack thread where you won't look like a spoiled brat!

 

[Zander]

I don't think these polls have any value for anyone except stat geeks......

Lets look at these same polls in 24 months.

Actually, you just supported my argument, for I have been saying all along, on every single one of these threads, that by doing this, I am building a data baseline.

So, yes, let's look at these polls in 24 months. You are exactly right.

I will remind: 16 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.
12 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.
6 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.

See a pattern here?

This is why data-people establish baselines to begin with.

So, thanks for your help!

Well, you are a stat geek! Of course this is exciting stuff to you. I am glad you're excited about your work and I applaud your effort to be non-partisan. Build your baselines and we'll see what happens.

 

[Shanty]

The current field of republicans are dismal.

If they want the Tea party monkey off their backs, they'd let Rand Paul run.

That would be the second Goldwater moment.

Goldwater was the one who somewhat kickstarted the run to the right and insanity.

 

[Shanty]

I think the fact she leads Jeb and Marco Rubio is very telling. Floridians know who these guys are and apparently don't want to give them a promotion.

Jeb Bush comes the closest, at -6 or -7.

But Rubio is way underwater.

And Christie has sunk to a point where I can imagine his advisors mulling whether he should run at all.

The names missing from these polls that I personally would have like to have seen in the mix as well:

Mike Huckabee
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Rick Santorum


But polling is expensive and most polls poll a maximum of 6 candidate matchups.

I think Christies moment has probably passed.

Carson is just the token black guy Republicans put up there to say , "We're not racist!" and Carson isn't as batshit crazy as Herman Cain or Alan Keyes, but he's not a contender.

Santorum's only value was as a "not Romney" for evangelicals who just could not bring themselves to support a Mormon. He has no future. ..

Huckabee has too many dead bodies attached to people he let out of prison because they said "Jesus" sincerely enough. I don't think he survives that.

That leaves Rick Perry. Rick might be viable if he can keep his profile high and if he can get to 2016 without saying something really stupid. The problem is he now has "Quayle's Disease". No matter how many smart things you say, they just want you to say something stupid.

(not to be confused with Palin's Disease,where you just say stupid shit and no one cares.)

Apparently, Ben Carson has that disease, like Palin. Maybe just not quite as covered as she is.

 

[Shanty]

The China crash is catching up with us according to new home sales. The McKinsey prediction that US productivity will price China out of many markets seems to be understated. But so far with the exception of NYS the Blues are getting stuck with the bills and the Reds with the revenues of these changes. Even with the unprepossessing GOP candidates the Fed taper looks like it will save them.

Word salad mixed with the dressing of irrelevant economics is awesome.

 

[Meathead]

I think America would be proud that a woman so broke a few years ago worked her way out of abject poverty to become president! Just wait till the news comes out about her being born in a log cabin. That might even top Obama's straw hut.

 

[Shanty]

I think the fact she leads Jeb and Marco Rubio is very telling. Floridians know who these guys are and apparently don't want to give them a promotion.

Jeb Bush comes the closest, at -6 or -7.

But Rubio is way underwater.

And Christie has sunk to a point where I can imagine his advisors mulling whether he should run at all.

The names missing from these polls that I personally would have like to have seen in the mix as well:

Mike Huckabee
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Rick Santorum


But polling is expensive and most polls poll a maximum of 6 candidate matchups.

To win the nomination, you need money and infrastructure. Everything else is just smoke.

These are the four Republicans who are currently raising money and building an infrastructure;

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Scott Walker

The nominee will be one of those four until someone else also gets serious about running a campaign.

They sgtill have some hangers on thinking Mitt might be the answer this time.

LOL!

 

[Statistikhengst]

I don't think these polls have any value for anyone except stat geeks......

Lets look at these same polls in 24 months.

Actually, you just supported my argument, for I have been saying all along, on every single one of these threads, that by doing this, I am building a data baseline.

So, yes, let's look at these polls in 24 months. You are exactly right.

I will remind: 16 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.
12 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.
6 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.

See a pattern here?

This is why data-people establish baselines to begin with.

So, thanks for your help!

Well, you are a stat geek! Of course this is exciting stuff to you. I am glad you're excited about your work and I applaud your effort to be non-partisan. Build your baselines and we'll see what happens.

Aye, aye, sir!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jeb Bush comes the closest, at -6 or -7.

But Rubio is way underwater.

And Christie has sunk to a point where I can imagine his advisors mulling whether he should run at all.

The names missing from these polls that I personally would have like to have seen in the mix as well:

Mike Huckabee
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Rick Santorum


But polling is expensive and most polls poll a maximum of 6 candidate matchups.

To win the nomination, you need money and infrastructure. Everything else is just smoke.

These are the four Republicans who are currently raising money and building an infrastructure;

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Scott Walker

The nominee will be one of those four until someone else also gets serious about running a campaign.

They sgtill have some hangers on thinking Mitt might be the answer this time.

LOL!

Hey, it could be possible!!!

 

[Shanty]

I am more cautious because a lot can happen between now and 2016 and politics are capricious at best.

That said these statistics are painting a picture that shows a turning tide in my opinion. Perhaps most telling were the numbers coming out of Mississippi. That is not a swing state but it shows the same trend as we are seeing in the swing states.

Put those all in aggregate together with the demographic shift and the GOP does need to come up with a plan B for 2016 in my opinion.

Of all the GOP candidates only Rand Paul sounds credible enough to win the general but that same moderate credibility will be a liability for him in the primaries where Ted Cruz will be tearing him a new hanging chad or two in the debates for those moderate positions.

2016 will not be like the elections of yore. There will be a fight on the right for the heart and soul of the party in the primaries followed by what I believe will be the roughest election in living memory if the TP candidate gets the nomination.

Is it the fight on the right that does them in for a generation? Or the demographics change? Or will it be a combination of both? I'm leaning towards the guess of both.

Look... their economics on the whole of the right is an abject failure, and is being pulled into different directions of failure between the Austrian School weenies, Neoclassical dummies and (funniest of all) the Ayn Rand acolytes. Their hatred towards people of color and immigrants is repulsive to people of color and immigrants. And their base is dying off from old age.

 

[Derideo_Te]

I am more cautious because a lot can happen between now and 2016 and politics are capricious at best.

That said these statistics are painting a picture that shows a turning tide in my opinion. Perhaps most telling were the numbers coming out of Mississippi. That is not a swing state but it shows the same trend as we are seeing in the swing states.

Put those all in aggregate together with the demographic shift and the GOP does need to come up with a plan B for 2016 in my opinion.

Of all the GOP candidates only Rand Paul sounds credible enough to win the general but that same moderate credibility will be a liability for him in the primaries where Ted Cruz will be tearing him a new hanging chad or two in the debates for those moderate positions.

2016 will not be like the elections of yore. There will be a fight on the right for the heart and soul of the party in the primaries followed by what I believe will be the roughest election in living memory if the TP candidate gets the nomination.

Is it the fight on the right that does them in for a generation? Or the demographics change? Or will it be a combination of both? I'm leaning towards the guess of both.

Look... their economics on the whole of the right is an abject failure, and is being pulled into different directions of failure between the Austrian School weenies, Neoclassical dummies and (funniest of all) the Ayn Rand acolytes. Their hatred towards people of color and immigrants is repulsive to people of color and immigrants. And their base is dying off from old age.

The fight on the right has been brewing for about 3 decades now. It began when the religious right came up with the "Moral Majority" and that morphed into the "Term Limiters" who turned into the "Crotch Watchers". They assumed that they had "won" when they put "their man in the WH" only that turned out to be nothing but pandering window dressing. They changed their name to "Main Street America" for W's 2nd term and were falling apart in 2007. But Ron Paul managed to coalesce the libertarians into the original Tea Party and Sarah Palin energized the "Birthers".

Then we had the 2008 economic collapse and the hijacking of the Tea Party to generate support for the anti-ACA crusade. The 2010 elections were a huge boost to the extreme right because there was considerable justifiable anger over the state of the job market. This was exploited and finally resulted in a sizable number of extremist candidates winning seats in both the House and the Senate.

2012 turned out to be a setback because the gains that the extreme right expected to make never materialized. Quite the opposite and that is why we are now approaching the semi finals for the fight on the right. 2014 is the last real chance for what is now the Tea Party to prove that it can win elections for the GOP. If they take a majority in the Senate then they will be able to dictate who will be the candidate in 2016. But if they fail then the establishment GOP will try to retake control and run a moderate candidate instead.

The fight on the right will occur when the establishment tries to reassert control over the Republican Party. The establishment knows that there is a demographic shift and that an "all-white" electorate is no longer a viable power base. The need to appeal to a broader base means embracing the things that have meaning for those parts of the electorate.

So we are at the turning point heading into November. It will be the gauge for the relative strength of each side. This election will hinge on the Senate races and while it is true that the Dems will probably lose seats the question that needs to be answered is how many?

In 2012 it was the extreme right that cost the GOP Senate seats that they could have won with establishment candidates. 2014 is shaping up to be a similar showdown. If the Dems hold 50 seats after the election the Tea Party will probably take the blame in my opinion. If the Dems are reduced to 49 or less the Tea Party will claim a victory and demand that they get to pick the 2016 candidate.

Going to be an interesting election to watch in my opinion.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I am more cautious because a lot can happen between now and 2016 and politics are capricious at best.

That said these statistics are painting a picture that shows a turning tide in my opinion. Perhaps most telling were the numbers coming out of Mississippi. That is not a swing state but it shows the same trend as we are seeing in the swing states.

Put those all in aggregate together with the demographic shift and the GOP does need to come up with a plan B for 2016 in my opinion.

Of all the GOP candidates only Rand Paul sounds credible enough to win the general but that same moderate credibility will be a liability for him in the primaries where Ted Cruz will be tearing him a new hanging chad or two in the debates for those moderate positions.

2016 will not be like the elections of yore. There will be a fight on the right for the heart and soul of the party in the primaries followed by what I believe will be the roughest election in living memory if the TP candidate gets the nomination.

Is it the fight on the right that does them in for a generation? Or the demographics change? Or will it be a combination of both? I'm leaning towards the guess of both.

Look... their economics on the whole of the right is an abject failure, and is being pulled into different directions of failure between the Austrian School weenies, Neoclassical dummies and (funniest of all) the Ayn Rand acolytes. Their hatred towards people of color and immigrants is repulsive to people of color and immigrants. And their base is dying off from old age.

The fight on the right has been brewing for about 3 decades now. It began when the religious right came up with the "Moral Majority" and that morphed into the "Term Limiters" who turned into the "Crotch Watchers". They assumed that they had "won" when they put "their man in the WH" only that turned out to be nothing but pandering window dressing. They changed their name to "Main Street America" for W's 2nd term and were falling apart in 2007. But Ron Paul managed to coalesce the libertarians into the original Tea Party and Sarah Palin energized the "Birthers".

Then we had the 2008 economic collapse and the hijacking of the Tea Party to generate support for the anti-ACA crusade. The 2010 elections were a huge boost to the extreme right because there was considerable justifiable anger over the state of the job market. This was exploited and finally resulted in a sizable number of extremist candidates winning seats in both the House and the Senate.

2012 turned out to be a setback because the gains that the extreme right expected to make never materialized. Quite the opposite and that is why we are now approaching the semi finals for the fight on the right. 2014 is the last real chance for what is now the Tea Party to prove that it can win elections for the GOP. If they take a majority in the Senate then they will be able to dictate who will be the candidate in 2016. But if they fail then the establishment GOP will try to retake control and run a moderate candidate instead.

The fight on the right will occur when the establishment tries to reassert control over the Republican Party. The establishment knows that there is a demographic shift and that an "all-white" electorate is no longer a viable power base. The need to appeal to a broader base means embracing the things that have meaning for those parts of the electorate.

So we are at the turning point heading into November. It will be the gauge for the relative strength of each side. This election will hinge on the Senate races and while it is true that the Dems will probably lose seats the question that needs to be answered is how many?

In 2012 it was the extreme right that cost the GOP Senate seats that they could have won with establishment candidates. 2014 is shaping up to be a similar showdown. If the Dems hold 50 seats after the election the Tea Party will probably take the blame in my opinion. If the Dems are reduced to 49 or less the Tea Party will claim a victory and demand that they get to pick the 2016 candidate.

Going to be an interesting election to watch in my opinion.

Interesting analysis and lots of food for thought.

Also interesting to note that had it not been the Tea Party and anger over the job market and the ACA, it would have been something else, for historically, the opposition party has massive massive inroads in virtually every single mid-term election since the inclusion of the GOP on the national ballot, in 1854. This has been especially applicable to a 2nd term president, the notable exception over the last more than 100 years being Bill Clinton and the 1998 mid-terms.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

View attachment 30872

What does it matter?

If taken in context, she was absolutely correct.

RWs know that so, as usual, they will only quote it out of context.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Running SCARED???? ROTFLMFAO

Hillary Team Calls for Media Blackout of Anti-Clinton Books

Breitbart ^


Soon there will be three anti-Clinton books on the market, which is apparently enough to have gotten under the skin of Team Hillary. The First Family Detail by Ronald Kessler, set for release next month, will join Clinton, Inc. by the Weekly Standard’s Daniel Halper and Blood Feud by Ed Klein on bookshelves. Yesterday we reported that Clinton, Inc. has shot up the charts and now both Halper and Klein’s books are outselling Hillary Clinton’s recent memoir Hard Choices. “With Klein, Halper and Kessler, we now have a Hat Trick of despicable actors concocting trashy nonsense,” Clinton spokesman Nick Merrill...

Are you really saying they're attempting to keep these books from the public?

How would they accomplish this?

You and britebart are delusional.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

I think America would be proud that a woman so broke a few years ago worked her way out of abject poverty to become president! Just wait till the news comes out about her being born in a log cabin. That might even top Obama's straw hut.

Actually, like the Obamas, the Clintons came from very modest circumstances and worked their way up to where they are now.

Both presidents vastly improved the lot of the average American during their time in office. Both followed a disastrous Republican president who left the country in a shambles.

Hopefully, that is what people will remember when they're considering a vote for Hilary.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

I think the fact she leads Jeb and Marco Rubio is very telling. Floridians know who these guys are and apparently don't want to give them a promotion.

Jeb Bush comes the closest, at -6 or -7.

But Rubio is way underwater.

And Christie has sunk to a point where I can imagine his advisors mulling whether he should run at all.

The names missing from these polls that I personally would have like to have seen in the mix as well:

Mike Huckabee
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Rick Santorum


But polling is expensive and most polls poll a maximum of 6 candidate matchups.

Just like the last general election, the GOP has no one who can win.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Is it the fight on the right that does them in for a generation? Or the demographics change? Or will it be a combination of both? I'm leaning towards the guess of both.

Look... their economics on the whole of the right is an abject failure, and is being pulled into different directions of failure between the Austrian School weenies, Neoclassical dummies and (funniest of all) the Ayn Rand acolytes. Their hatred towards people of color and immigrants is repulsive to people of color and immigrants. And their base is dying off from old age.

The fight on the right has been brewing for about 3 decades now. It began when the religious right came up with the "Moral Majority" and that morphed into the "Term Limiters" who turned into the "Crotch Watchers". They assumed that they had "won" when they put "their man in the WH" only that turned out to be nothing but pandering window dressing. They changed their name to "Main Street America" for W's 2nd term and were falling apart in 2007. But Ron Paul managed to coalesce the libertarians into the original Tea Party and Sarah Palin energized the "Birthers".

Then we had the 2008 economic collapse and the hijacking of the Tea Party to generate support for the anti-ACA crusade. The 2010 elections were a huge boost to the extreme right because there was considerable justifiable anger over the state of the job market. This was exploited and finally resulted in a sizable number of extremist candidates winning seats in both the House and the Senate.

2012 turned out to be a setback because the gains that the extreme right expected to make never materialized. Quite the opposite and that is why we are now approaching the semi finals for the fight on the right. 2014 is the last real chance for what is now the Tea Party to prove that it can win elections for the GOP. If they take a majority in the Senate then they will be able to dictate who will be the candidate in 2016. But if they fail then the establishment GOP will try to retake control and run a moderate candidate instead.

The fight on the right will occur when the establishment tries to reassert control over the Republican Party. The establishment knows that there is a demographic shift and that an "all-white" electorate is no longer a viable power base. The need to appeal to a broader base means embracing the things that have meaning for those parts of the electorate.

So we are at the turning point heading into November. It will be the gauge for the relative strength of each side. This election will hinge on the Senate races and while it is true that the Dems will probably lose seats the question that needs to be answered is how many?

In 2012 it was the extreme right that cost the GOP Senate seats that they could have won with establishment candidates. 2014 is shaping up to be a similar showdown. If the Dems hold 50 seats after the election the Tea Party will probably take the blame in my opinion. If the Dems are reduced to 49 or less the Tea Party will claim a victory and demand that they get to pick the 2016 candidate.

Going to be an interesting election to watch in my opinion.

Interesting analysis and lots of food for thought.

Also interesting to note that had it not been the Tea Party and anger over the job market and the ACA, it would have been something else, for historically, the opposition party has massive massive inroads in virtually every single mid-term election since the inclusion of the GOP on the national ballot, in 1854. This has been especially applicable to a 2nd term president, the notable exception over the last more than 100 years being Bill Clinton and the 1998 mid-terms.

The "wild card" in this election is the lawsuit against Obama. If it is filed then both sides are going to exploit it to the maximum they can. That much is readily apparent just on the "news" that it was going to happen. The GOP establishment is using the lawsuit as a means of containing the extreme right in the run up to the 2014 election. Palin is calling it out as BS and demanding impeachment instead. That alone is a sparring bout for the fight on the right.

From the Dem's point of view the lawsuit is both a reason for Obama to get out on the road and stump up support and a way to remind voters of 1998. From their side it is a "win-win" because if it moves forward they have something to campaign on and if it excites talk of impeachment then the "crazy talk" ends up in the media. Let's not forget that it was the "crazy talk" by GOP Senate candidates that cost them so dearly in 2012.

So I am keeping an eye on that factor because I can see it being used as a tool to generate base voter turnout for both sides.