Conservatives continue to worship pollster who predicted Romney would beat Obama

[HappyJoy]

Sometimes? Some polls get it mostly right, others don't. Some polls (like the WND one in another thread) are designed to influence opinion. You have to follow their past performance and there are quite a few who get it right often.

And why would anyone care what you believe? You've closed yourself off of the only valuable statistical resource for who is leading in any given race.

I never said that they were not indicators of where the elections may end up. I am only trying to make the point that they are statistically invalid.

and I do realize that all 330,000,000 americans do not vote. Even if you limit the poll to likely voters of 20-30 million, a sample of 1000 is not statistically meaningful.

How can they be indicators but not statistically valid?

Uhhh, I'm not even going to dignify that stupid comment with an answer.

Hey, if you choose not to recognize the statistical significance of multiple polls over time, that's your problem.

multiple polls using different samples and using the same questions might achieve some validity-------------------because the sample would be larger.

Questions per polling company vary but for the most part they ask who the voter is going to vote for. When you see the same pattern over multiple polls (i.e. Trump's lead increasing) match, you have data that points to how the election is going. Time and time again, people use polls to accurately predict who wins elections.

 

[HappyJoy]

Perhaps Redfish shouldn't be starting threads using polls to support his position.

Gingrich: The startling CNN poll on the shutdown - CNN.com | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

where in that post did I say that that poll was statistically accurate? answer: nowhere.

Why did you use the poll, aren't they worthless? You can't have it both ways, claim polls are useless when they don't benefit you and then use them when they do.

That thread was to start a discussion, I never said that the poll was statistically valid.

You used the poll to demonstrate that your view was gaining acceptance. The 2012 election polls proved to be statistically valid. Nate Silver used polls to predict perfectly the electoral college results.