CNN/ORC Poll: Bush surges to 2016 GOP frontrunner

[kaz]

TeaTards only care about cutting taxes regardless of the economic conditions. They pray to the God of Austerity and don't care who gets hurt

What does that even mean, cut taxes and don't care who gets hurt?

And once again you don't know what you are talking about. Rest assured big guy, they don't just want to cut my tax bill, they want to cut your government check as well. All is good. What you don't know about the world around you would fill tomes.

But strangely, Teatards don't want to cut programs that they benefit from

Like what?

 

[Synthaholic]

There are some on the far right who can't accept it, but you and I have both provided all the data. The GOP has clearly maxed out on what they can get from the far right. Trying to appease this group further makes absolutely NO sense and if they demand it, they will cost themselves the White House. In at least 32 years, no GOP candidate has won the White House without getting at least 45% of the moderate vote.

Exactly.

Here's how many conservatives voted for the Republican candidate (in millions), and the percent of the electorate who said they were conservative.

2012 37mm, 35%
2008 34.8mm, 34%
2004 34.9mm, 34%
2000 24.8mm, 29%
1996 23.6mm, 34%
1992 20mm, 30%
1988 24.5mm, 33%
1984 25.1mm, 33%
1980 17.7mm, 28%
1976 17.7mm, 31%

So not only did Romney win more conservative votes than any other candidate in history, conservatives made up more of the electorate in at least the last 10 elections. So the idea that Romney and McCain lost because conservatives stayed home is pure fiction.

The only election where this seems to be the case was in 1992 when Bush only won 64% of conservatives, the lowest in at least the last 10 elections.

Great points. But in '92 conservatives were still 30% of the electorate - just about 3 points behind normal. So I don't think they stayed home in droves or anything. But Perot siphoned off about 18% of them and Clinton got 18% of the conservative vote too.

Yup.

I do think conservatives can make a very good argument that the Bush tax increases cost Bush the election as enough of them stayed home or switched to Perot. But otherwise, the conservatives-staying-home-caused-them-to-lose-the-election is mythology.

Perot pulled conservative votes away from Bush and allowed little known Clinton to win

I know that makes sense, but I can't get over the fact that Clinton pulled as many conservatives (18%) as Perot did.

Clinton is no Liberal. He wouldn't have become governor of hillbilly Arkansas if he was.

 

[lutraphile]

He has the lead, but it's a post-announcement surge. Christie and Rubio and Cruz and Santorum will all get one too. Exception might be Paul, whose base is probably pretty much tapped until he campaigns.

rand paul sure has done a number on the conservatives and republicans.

rand paul is the guy who went on Rachel Maddow's show and proclaimed he doesn't support and would not have voted for the civil rights act or the voting rights act.

That's not even close to moderate. That's far right.

Paul (much like his father) is weird. He has a mix of extreme far right policies, libertarian policies, and even a few progressive ones. This is why I think his room for growth is smaller than just about any other candidate. Iowa has a libertarian streak though, with a win there and some establishment/moderate splintering (say, Romney, Bush, and Christie all run) he could contend for the nomination.

Given his history and his current positions - I'd be surprised to see him EVER poll more than about 15% nationally. He maybe could win a few crowded primaries, but I don't see him as a serious contender at all. I guess we will see..

Ron Paul came close to winning Iowa last time. And between his loyal base there and the knee-jerk bump one always gets from winning Iowa, winning New Hampshire could have very well happened. Then who knows?

That is the main thing that keeps me from writing him off.

Iowa is good for four delegates and Iowa is not the same demographic as New Hampshire
Like his father, Rand will have the financing to run in all the primaries. Like his father, he will steal some of the caucuses but not be able to win nationwide primaries

Iowa is good for 4 delegates and a TON of momentum. Santorum was really screwed the last election when Romney was incorrectly called the winner. If you can win Iowa and New Hampshire, it is extremely difficult to stop the momentum. In the last poll of NH, Paul was tied for first (with Christie) and in like a four way virtual tie for second in Iowa (after the doubtful to run Huckabee). He can win if he wins both.

 

[Synthaholic]

"Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, Trey Gowdy, Mike Lee, Dr Carson, Alan West have no chance"

True.

All are extreme rightwing zealots.

Voters despise extremism, left or right – a lesson democrats have learned, and most republicans not.

The Democratic Party contains no zealots??????????
Are you really trying to go there?

They are not promoted as POTUS material is the point. Unlike the GOP.

 

[kaz]

"Rest assured big guy, they don't just want to cut my tax bill, they want to cut your government check as well."

Personally, I'll believe that when I see it. I have to see some evidence that something is true before I swallow it. I'm apparently kinda "different" that way.

It's what the tea party is about, lower taxes, lower spending. Think about the name, tea party...

 

[Synthaholic]

I guess I will support Jeb Bush then. Sure, he may be identical to the Democrats, but our side will win!

^^^ The lie that you will keep repeating.

 

[Dana7360]

Viable means a chance to win

Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, Trey Gowdy, Mike Lee, Dr Carson, Alan West have no chance

Obviously, they are the ones you fear the most. If they weren't, you would be urging us to vote for them instead of dismiss them.

Vote for them! I'm urging! Get Poor Sarah in there, too! And Bachmann! Maybe you can bring back Pat Robertson, Gary Bauer, Pat Buchanan, and David Duke, too!

No, I think you're afraid of Cruz, Sessions, Gowdy, Lee, Carson, and West. Your mention of Palin and the others is your attempt at distraction. You fear the ones you mentioned first, especially Cruz.

curz has dual citizenship with Canada.

I don't know about you but most Americans want a president who has citizenship to one nation. America.

Speaking for myself, cruz isn't even an American. I don't consider a man who was born in Canada and has citizenship to Canada an American citizen with the ability to be our president.

On top of that he's stupid and has a god complex. If you think that anyone is afraid of cruz being president I've got a wonderful bridge to sell you right in the middle of the Mojave Desert.

But you consider a communist, born in Kenya, an American citizen with the ability to be our president. There goes your credibility.

You actually believe that?

Wow you birthers are a special kind of stupid.

 

[kaz]

TeaTards only care about cutting taxes regardless of the economic conditions. They pray to the God of Austerity and don't care who gets hurt

What does that even mean, cut taxes and don't care who gets hurt?

And once again you don't know what you are talking about. Rest assured big guy, they don't just want to cut my tax bill, they want to cut your government check as well. All is good. What you don't know about the world around you would fill tomes.

But strangely, Teatards don't want to cut programs that they benefit from

Every is out there fighting for their pet boondoggles. Even those who try to sell themselves as "fiscally conservative."

You mean Hillary?

 

[kaz]

I guess I will support Jeb Bush then. Sure, he may be identical to the Democrats, but our side will win!

^^^ The lie that you will keep repeating.

Tweedledum and tweedledee

 

[Synthaholic]

What does that even mean, cut taxes and don't care who gets hurt?

S P Official U.S. Downgrade Was Due in Part to Debt-Ceiling Brawl - WSJ

U.S. Debt Ceiling: Costs and Consequences

GOP Causes S P Downgrade but Republican Candidates Blame Obama The Nation

 

[rightwinger]

Viable means a chance to win

Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, Trey Gowdy, Mike Lee, Dr Carson, Alan West have no chance

Obviously, they are the ones you fear the most. If they weren't, you would be urging us to vote for them instead of dismiss them.

Vote for them! I'm urging! Get Poor Sarah in there, too! And Bachmann! Maybe you can bring back Pat Robertson, Gary Bauer, Pat Buchanan, and David Duke, too!

No, I think you're afraid of Cruz, Sessions, Gowdy, Lee, Carson, and West. Your mention of Palin and the others is your attempt at distraction. You fear the ones you mentioned first, especially Cruz.

curz has dual citizenship with Canada.

I don't know about you but most Americans want a president who has citizenship to one nation. America.

Speaking for myself, cruz isn't even an American. I don't consider a man who was born in Canada and has citizenship to Canada an American citizen with the ability to be our president.

On top of that he's stupid and has a god complex. If you think that anyone is afraid of cruz being president I've got a wonderful bridge to sell you right in the middle of the Mojave Desert.

But you consider a communist, born in Kenya, an American citizen with the ability to be our president. There goes your credibility.

Geeze....talk about blowing your credibility

 

[rightwinger]

"Rest assured big guy, they don't just want to cut my tax bill, they want to cut your government check as well."

Personally, I'll believe that when I see it. I have to see some evidence that something is true before I swallow it. I'm apparently kinda "different" that way.

It's what the tea party is about, lower taxes, lower spending. Think about the name, tea party...

Tea Tards are willing to destroy our credit rating, gridlock Congress, shutdown government and default on our debt.......all in their attempt to slash taxes
They will destroy any program that does not benefit them

 

[kaz]

Things in Jeb Bush's favor:

He has name recognition
He has a good record as Gov of Florida
He can do well with the Hispanic vote
He can win in swing states, especially Florida and Ohio

Things working against him:

He is a rather dull speaker
He has the stink of Bush

Again the Romney plan where you all loved him as the center candidate who can reach across party lines in the primaries then he became a radical reactionary in the general election.

Why are you depending on The Left to elect your candidate?

Strawman

If so, you introduced it.

It makes no difference which Republican candidate the Democrats favor. It's irrelevant to who the Republican voters eventually pick.

No, I didn't, what you said had nothing to do with the point I made

 

[Synthaholic]

He has the lead, but it's a post-announcement surge. Christie and Rubio and Cruz and Santorum will all get one too. Exception might be Paul, whose base is probably pretty much tapped until he campaigns.

rand paul sure has done a number on the conservatives and republicans.

rand paul is the guy who went on Rachel Maddow's show and proclaimed he doesn't support and would not have voted for the civil rights act or the voting rights act.

That's not even close to moderate. That's far right.

Paul (much like his father) is weird. He has a mix of extreme far right policies, libertarian policies, and even a few progressive ones. This is why I think his room for growth is smaller than just about any other candidate. Iowa has a libertarian streak though, with a win there and some establishment/moderate splintering (say, Romney, Bush, and Christie all run) he could contend for the nomination.

Paul has been toning down his message and moving more towards the center

He will do better than his father but his libertarian outreach will limit his popularity

The problem for him is that the videotape is out there. If it gets serious, he will have to address every one of his flip-flops.

I'm not sure he's a good enough politician to handle them while coming across as likeable.

 

[peach174]

Precisely... it's an election tactic, and it's had a reasonable amount of success.

That's why we see the left continue to use it.

Yep , Republicans are so stupid that they let the media select their candidate for them.

The Media is the ones who picked Obama.

No, Americans picked Obama.

No, the media picked him and then Americans went along with the hype.

Tell that to all those who voted for Hillary. I myself voted for Biden.

Yeah and there was a whole bunch of evidence of voter suppression for Hillary but that was ignored.

 

[kaz]

Right, the Republican party used to be Marxists, but they aren't now so you had to go to the Democrats. I'm convinced. Sure you were.

So to you, "caring about people" = Marxist?

No wonder you occupy the fringe and have no influence.

So to you, "caring about people" = government doing it for you?

No wonder you're a loser.

 

[bendog]

Hillary Clinton called herself a "fiscal conservative." I reject your definition of self described. Jake says he's a Republican. Self described is meaningless.

Doesn't matter what you accept and it's not MY definition (as I think you are probably aware - not sure why you tried to attribute it to me).

The numbers don't lie. You can continue to lose where you live on fantasy island - or you can make the journey to the real world where you may be more successful.

You think that anyone who thinks government shouldn't make our choices for us lives on fantasy island? I wouldn't be lecturing anyone on the "real world." In the real world, government are power hungry and unaccountable and make crappy choices.

Why aren't you addressing the numbers?

I did, I said they are irrelevant.

Why is data irrelevant?

Mitt got a million more votes than McCain. Obama got about 5 million less votes in 12 than in 08. Imo, overall it's possible that a candidate who runs on cutting poverty aid while supporting Soc Sec and Medicare can improve on Mitt's showing. The question for the dems is whether Hill is healthy and whether she can sustain Obama's vote totals.

 

[Synthaholic]

Viable means a chance to win

Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, Trey Gowdy, Mike Lee, Dr Carson, Alan West have no chance

Obviously, they are the ones you fear the most. If they weren't, you would be urging us to vote for them instead of dismiss them.

Vote for them! I'm urging! Get Poor Sarah in there, too! And Bachmann! Maybe you can bring back Pat Robertson, Gary Bauer, Pat Buchanan, and David Duke, too!

No, I think you're afraid of Cruz, Sessions, Gowdy, Lee, Carson, and West. Your mention of Palin and the others is your attempt at distraction. You fear the ones you mentioned first, especially Cruz.

curz has dual citizenship with Canada.

I don't know about you but most Americans want a president who has citizenship to one nation. America.

Speaking for myself, cruz isn't even an American. I don't consider a man who was born in Canada and has citizenship to Canada an American citizen with the ability to be our president.

On top of that he's stupid and has a god complex. If you think that anyone is afraid of cruz being president I've got a wonderful bridge to sell you right in the middle of the Mojave Desert.

But you consider a communist, born in Kenya, an American citizen with the ability to be our president. There goes your credibility.

Your premise is false.

 

[kaz]

So Gore was running for the popular vote? Wow, he was too stupid to be President.

Your babble didn't contradict me. W while not being a Conservative motivated them. The first time because he lied that he was Conservative. The second time it was a combination of Iraq and that the Democrats ran a gag candidate, John F'ing Kerry.

The other four, Republicans ran center/left candidates who were clearly center/left who were disliked by the right and lost. The problem with center left is they like you can't decide which party you support while the leftists in the Democratic party don't have that split and then the conservatives stay home.

Stop babbling. Your take on the history of it is perverted and senseless.

The cons won twice, because they had the right and took the center once and SCOTUS the other time.

We have no candidate other than Bush who can take the center. None.

Jeb being a Bush is as much of a weakness for getting the center as Romney's negative caricatures. If anything I'd say Romney has the edge on Bush when it comes to center appeal, it's his Mormonism that he really hurts his appeal to most (not all) Christian conservatives, which is something Jeb doesn't have to deal with when appealing to that crowd

I thought it was going to sink Mittens, since it's written into the Southern Baptist creed/bylaws that Mormonism is a cult.

But no. Apparently their Party comes before their Christianity. Southern Baptists turned out huge in 2012.

So Republicans are Christian bigots who want their God in government, but no wait, they are hypocrites because they voted for the candidate they like better. You're flip flopping more than Romney.

I didn't say "Republicans". I said Southern Baptists were hypocrites - not bigots - for voting for Romney when their covenants specifically call Mormonism a cult.

Now, if you want to argue that they are bigots for feeling that way about Mormonism, that's another topic. I think they are dead on. But I believe Southern Baptists belong to a cult, also.

When you flip flop to a single position you'll stand behind let me know.

 

[kaz]

See, it was a clown question bro. You are defining viable. Who gives a shit what a Marxist considers "viable?"

Viable means a chance to win

Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, Trey Gowdy, Mike Lee, Dr Carson, Alan West have no chance

Reagan had no chance either, remember?

Ted Kennedy had a lot to do with Reagan's win.

And?

And what? It's indisputable.

"And?" doesn't mean I disagree with it, it means there is no point to it. I mean duh.