The last two presidential contests were decided by the two most populous swing states: Florida and Ohio. New Mexico will be put back on the table if Obama is the candidate.
I can see Florida being an issue, but I just don't see NM voting for McCain. Do you? Maybe I'm missing something.
Hillary would take NM in a walk over McCain.
I agree. But what about the baggage she carries? From what I hear, basically, the Clinton's view that baggage as "war wounds" from the type of partisan battles they fought during the 90's. They feel it came from trying to do good. Do you think it can be conveyed that way to the electorate?
All the Dems have to do to win in November is carry either Florida or Ohio. It's about the math. The only way the Republican candidate can put together enough electoral college votes is to win both Ohio and Florida. It makes no difference if Crist can help in WA, OR, and WA, they are already gone. Blue and Red are solid except for NM, OH, and FL. Name another state that is not a very long shot for Red or Blue. I do not think there are any. If there are, then the Dems have a better chance at previously solid Red states, such as Virginia. But does McCain have a shot at PA or NJ, for example?
See, I think NJ and PA can go either way. If I were Hillary or Obama, the more I think about it, the more sense Ed Rendell makes. Both need a white, male running mate who is a centrist and known for straight talk. Rendell would be a great pitbull. And Rendell virtually assures them PA if its even in question. I think he'd pull Ohio, too.
No way. It is all about OH and FL. And Crist would give McCain a strong chance at FL. But Ohio. Now there is the state that may put the Dems over the top in November. Watch the total Primary count in OH by Party. If the Dems draw 2 to 1 like they have elsewhere, then McCain should probably go on early vacation. Unless McCain does something really remarkable to stir conservative and moderate imaginations, it will be a Dem cakewalk in November.
I don't think it's going to be as easy as all that. I'd like to think it, but I watched Kerry's lead evaporate after the swiftboaters. And watched McCain lose to Bush when he was all but assured the nomination after the push polling in N.Carolina. (or was it south? sorry). So, who knows what Rovian tactics are up the RNC's sleeve this time out.
A reasonable Obama choice for VP would be Richardson because he will lock NM and give Obama a shot in Florida. Unless, there will be a giant Bradley affect that is unanticipated. In which case, a VP running mate like PA Governor Rendell might be a better choice. And Rendell can help in Ohio. This year, however, Blue will stay Blue. Obama must figure out how to grab only one Red. Obama should concentrate on OH and FL, and OH, given Bush's poor economic results, is probably his best shot. McCain, Mr. Path-to-Citizenship, from a border state, will poll very well with all Latinos, not just those in South Florida. But it will make little difference because the only states that are clearly in play are NM, FL, and OH.
So far Obama seems immune from the Bradley effect. People of all stripes have been voting for him. The dems aren't giving the white house back to the repubs over something like Melanin. At least I don't have that sense.
I know we've talked a lot about the possibility of Richardson being VP. And it's a good choice. But I'm concerned about the black/hispanic running mates and the perception that might create. Personally, that hadn't occurred to me, but I had lunch with a friend today whose job brings him to meetings with the D.C. leadership on a regular basis and he was the one who brought it to my attention. Like you, I'm thinking Rendell more and more. He's really perfect.
I think NJ and PA could be put into play. Neither is firmly in the blue or red catagory, IMO. And I think you're right about the Latino vote. We might want to send a thank you card to the right for making immigration such a big issue. Seems to have energized the Hispanic vote.
