China Beating War Drums? What about North Korea? Are Either Capable of Fighting?

[Dante]

China Beating War Drums? What about North Korea? Are Either Capable of Fighting?

Can and would China actually fight? And what about North Korea, are their Armed Forces modern and capable and/or loyal and political?

This raises interesting questions about what our Armed Forces say, want, desire, exaggerate, misinterpret...concerning Asia

U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell...

Fanell, in comments that went largely unnoticed outside the small circle of China military specialists, spelled out in rare detail the reasons the United States is shifting 60 percent of its naval assets -- including its most advanced capabilities -- to the Pacific. He was blunt: The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is focused on war, and it is expanding into the "blue waters" explicitly to counter the U.S. Pacific Fleet. "I can tell you, as the fleet intelligence officer, the PLA Navy is going to sea to learn how to do naval warfare," he said. "My assessment is the PLA Navy has become a very capable fighting force."

"The people's army is not merely an organ for fighting; it is also an organ for the political advancement of the party," Mao once said, in another statement whose truth has been confirmed by all his successors. Xi may be able to build a military that is either modern and capable or loyal and political. But many in China now believe he can't have both.

Xi's War Drums - By John Garnaut | Foreign Policy

 

[tjvh]

When I consider China thinking they might actually make war with the United States, I think about a dog biting the hand that feeds it. Economically speaking, it would be the worst decision China could ever make in the history of our planet... And somehow I think the Chinese surely know that. North Korea, on the other hand doesn't have an economy based upon the success of their goods being sold in the U.S. market like China does.

 

[Dante]

When I consider China thinking they might actually make war with the United States, I think about a dog biting the hand that feeds it. Economically speaking, it would be the worst decision China could ever make in the history of our planet... And somehow I think the Chinese surely know that. North Korea, on the other hand doesn't have an economy based upon the success of their goods being sold in the U.S. market like China does.

China Beating War Drums? What about North Korea? Are Either Capable of Fighting?

Can and would China actually fight? And what about North Korea, are their Armed Forces modern and capable and/or loyal and political?

This raises interesting questions about what our Armed Forces say, want, desire, exaggerate, misinterpret...concerning Asia

 

[tjvh]

When I consider China thinking they might actually make war with the United States, I think about a dog biting the hand that feeds it. Economically speaking, it would be the worst decision China could ever make in the history of our planet... And somehow I think the Chinese surely know that. North Korea, on the other hand doesn't have an economy based upon the success of their goods being sold in the U.S. market like China does.

China Beating War Drums? What about North Korea? Are Either Capable of Fighting?

Can and would China actually fight? And what about North Korea, are their Armed Forces modern and capable and/or loyal and political?

This raises interesting questions about what our Armed Forces say, want, desire, exaggerate, misinterpret...concerning Asia

I'm sure China is more than capable of putting up a limited fight, but I don't see it happening. Would you go stick a knife into the back of a store owner who is solely responsible for selling nearly all of your merchandise? I tend to doubt it.
It's all here if you want to pick it apart:
China Military Guide
North Korea Military Guide

 

[Dante]

When I consider China thinking they might actually make war with the United States, I think about a dog biting the hand that feeds it. Economically speaking, it would be the worst decision China could ever make in the history of our planet... And somehow I think the Chinese surely know that. North Korea, on the other hand doesn't have an economy based upon the success of their goods being sold in the U.S. market like China does.

China Beating War Drums? What about North Korea? Are Either Capable of Fighting?

Can and would China actually fight? And what about North Korea, are their Armed Forces modern and capable and/or loyal and political?

This raises interesting questions about what our Armed Forces say, want, desire, exaggerate, misinterpret...concerning Asia

I'm sure China is more than capable of putting up a limited fight, but I don't see it happening. Would you go stick a knife into the back of a store owner who is solely responsible for selling nearly all of your merchandise? I tend to doubt it.
It's all here if you want to pick it apart:

China Military Guide
North Korea Military Guide

So you think the world works in completely rational ways, or you are betting that it will?

What is up with Wikipedia deleting the globalsecurity page?

I doubt the Chinese Government wants a war, but what of it's military and the
leader mentioned? What of the thoughts of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell?

Every morning at 6 a.m., more than two dozen of the world's leading submarine watchers, aviation experts, government specialists, imagery analysts, cryptanalysts, and linguists gather at the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. Their job is to probe the overnight intelligence reports to guide the activities and strategies of the five aircraft carrier groups, 180 ships, and nearly 2,000 aircraft that constantly patrol the Pacific and Indian oceans. The morning meetings are convened by the fleet's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell, and cover activities emanating anywhere "from Hollywood to Bollywood," as the head of U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Locklear, likes to put it. But the group never takes long before zeroing in on the country driving the United States' military and diplomatic "pivot" to Asia. "Every day it's about China; it's about a China who's at the center of virtually every activity and dispute in the maritime domain in the East Asian region," said Fanell, reading from prepared remarks at a U.S. Naval Institute conference in San Diego on Jan. 31. Xi's War Drums - By John Garnaut | Foreign Policy

 

[tjvh]

China Beating War Drums? What about North Korea? Are Either Capable of Fighting?

Can and would China actually fight? And what about North Korea, are their Armed Forces modern and capable and/or loyal and political?

This raises interesting questions about what our Armed Forces say, want, desire, exaggerate, misinterpret...concerning Asia

I'm sure China is more than capable of putting up a limited fight, but I don't see it happening. Would you go stick a knife into the back of a store owner who is solely responsible for selling nearly all of your merchandise? I tend to doubt it.
It's all here if you want to pick it apart:

China Military Guide
North Korea Military Guide

So you think the world works in completely rational ways, or you are betting that it will?

What is up with Wikipedia deleting the globalsecurity page?

I doubt the Chinese Government wants a war, but what of it's military and the
leader mentioned? What of the thoughts of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell?

Every morning at 6 a.m., more than two dozen of the world's leading submarine watchers, aviation experts, government specialists, imagery analysts, cryptanalysts, and linguists gather at the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. Their job is to probe the overnight intelligence reports to guide the activities and strategies of the five aircraft carrier groups, 180 ships, and nearly 2,000 aircraft that constantly patrol the Pacific and Indian oceans. The morning meetings are convened by the fleet's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell, and cover activities emanating anywhere "from Hollywood to Bollywood," as the head of U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Locklear, likes to put it. But the group never takes long before zeroing in on the country driving the United States' military and diplomatic "pivot" to Asia. "Every day it's about China; it's about a China who's at the center of virtually every activity and dispute in the maritime domain in the East Asian region," said Fanell, reading from prepared remarks at a U.S. Naval Institute conference in San Diego on Jan. 31. Xi's War Drums - By John Garnaut | Foreign Policy

I don't think China is that stupid, they might flex some military muscle -but that's about it. N. Korea I'm not so sure, but unless the clown who is running NK is completely stupid I doubt they will do much either.

 

[Dante]

I'm sure China is more than capable of putting up a limited fight, but I don't see it happening. Would you go stick a knife into the back of a store owner who is solely responsible for selling nearly all of your merchandise? I tend to doubt it.
It's all here if you want to pick it apart:

China Military Guide
North Korea Military Guide

So you think the world works in completely rational ways, or you are betting that it will?

What is up with Wikipedia deleting the globalsecurity page?

I doubt the Chinese Government wants a war, but what of it's military and the
leader mentioned? What of the thoughts of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell?

Every morning at 6 a.m., more than two dozen of the world's leading submarine watchers, aviation experts, government specialists, imagery analysts, cryptanalysts, and linguists gather at the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. Their job is to probe the overnight intelligence reports to guide the activities and strategies of the five aircraft carrier groups, 180 ships, and nearly 2,000 aircraft that constantly patrol the Pacific and Indian oceans. The morning meetings are convened by the fleet's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell, and cover activities emanating anywhere "from Hollywood to Bollywood," as the head of U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Locklear, likes to put it. But the group never takes long before zeroing in on the country driving the United States' military and diplomatic "pivot" to Asia. "Every day it's about China; it's about a China who's at the center of virtually every activity and dispute in the maritime domain in the East Asian region," said Fanell, reading from prepared remarks at a U.S. Naval Institute conference in San Diego on Jan. 31. Xi's War Drums - By John Garnaut | Foreign Policy

I don't think China is that stupid, they might flex some military muscle -but that's about it. N. Korea I'm not so sure, but unless the clown who is running NK is completely stupid I doubt they will do much either.

Do you have any idea about power struggles between the military and political parties and powers in nations in Asia? Do you believe wars are not initiated by accident when brinksmanship goes over the cliff?

I do not think a war is imminent, but I am not foolish enough to think if war does come it would be 100$ by design

 

[zzzz]

China is perfectly capable of fighting a war. The smack on the chin North Vietnam gave them a few decades ago in the border skirmish made the Chinese realize they needed to modernize their armed forces and not rest solely on manpower. Although their global projection of force is feeble they are certainly able to project force to the Japanese, Guam, Australia arc and capable of fighting US forces within that arc. In a war with the US over that territory the probability of US victory is 50/50. The problem being that the US would be hard pressed to sustain air and naval operation in the theater of operations for more than a week. The Chinese have hundreds if not thousands of missiles which pose threats to naval craft including super silent diesel subs. Us aircraft would need refueling and this is the weak link. War games have proven the Chinese would destroy a large part of the refueling platforms and the sortie sustainability of US advanced aircraft would start to decrease within in few days, not to mention the armament. It is probable that a war, limited to non nukes, would force the Us to accept Chinese dominance in the area. Another real possibility with the Chinese is if we hit mainland China, would they feel compelled to launch non nuclear ballistic missiles into mainland US targeting say the refineries in Oklahoma. If that threat materialized would the American people want to continue a war over Formosa?

North Korea certainly has the potential to wage war. Its hard to say if the military leaders of NK would want to wage war. They certainly know their plush lifestyles would be interrupted. The rank and file would probably follow orders as the indoctrination shows no sign of letting up. It would be up to the generals.

 

[Dante]

China is perfectly capable of fighting a war. The smack on the chin North Vietnam gave them a few decades ago in the border skirmish made the Chinese realize they needed to modernize their armed forces and not rest solely on manpower.

Although their global projection of force is feeble they are certainly able to project force to the Japanese, Guam, Australia arc and capable of fighting US forces within that arc. In a war with the US over that territory the probability of US victory is 50/50.

The problem being that the US would be hard pressed to sustain air and naval operation in the theater of operations for more than a week. The Chinese have hundreds if not thousands of missiles which pose threats to naval craft including super silent diesel subs. Us aircraft would need refueling and this is the weak link. War games have proven the Chinese would destroy a large part of the refueling platforms and the sortie sustainability of US advanced aircraft would start to decrease within in few days, not to mention the armament.

It is probable that a war, limited to non nukes, would force the Us to accept Chinese dominance in the area. Another real possibility with the Chinese is if we hit mainland China, would they feel compelled to launch non nuclear ballistic missiles into mainland US targeting say the refineries in Oklahoma. If that threat materialized would the American people want to continue a war over Formosa?

North Korea certainly has the potential to wage war. Its hard to say if the military leaders of NK would want to wage war. They certainly know their plush lifestyles would be interrupted. The rank and file would probably follow orders as the indoctrination shows no sign of letting up. It would be up to the generals.

Xi Jinping has been the top leader since 2012. He has been in the top circle for a while, specifically since 2010, but the main thrust of the article focuses on the changes in the military and it's culture that Xi Jinping is initiating after coming into power.

"The people's army is not merely an organ for fighting; it is also an organ for the political advancement of the party," Mao once said, in another statement whose truth has been confirmed by all his successors. Xi may be able to build a military that is either modern and capable or loyal and political. But many in China now believe he can't have both.

It won't be for lack of trying. Xi's War Drums - By John Garnaut | Foreign Policy

your post has some interesting insights, but I am wondering whether what we think we know is what we need to know

China Beating War Drums? What about North Korea? Are Either Capable of Fighting?

Can and would China actually fight? And what about North Korea, are their Armed Forces modern and capable and/or loyal and political?

This raises interesting questions about what our Armed Forces say, want, desire, exaggerate, misinterpret...concerning Asia

U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii's top intelligence officer, Capt. James Fanell...

Fanell, in comments that went largely unnoticed outside the small circle of China military specialists, spelled out in rare detail the reasons the United States is shifting 60 percent of its naval assets -- including its most advanced capabilities -- to the Pacific. He was blunt: The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is focused on war, and it is expanding into the "blue waters" explicitly to counter the U.S. Pacific Fleet. "I can tell you, as the fleet intelligence officer, the PLA Navy is going to sea to learn how to do naval warfare," he said. "My assessment is the PLA Navy has become a very capable fighting force."

"The people's army is not merely an organ for fighting; it is also an organ for the political advancement of the party," Mao once said, in another statement whose truth has been confirmed by all his successors. Xi may be able to build a military that is either modern and capable or loyal and political. But many in China now believe he can't have both.

Xi's War Drums - By John Garnaut | Foreign Policy

There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don’t know. ”

—United States Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld

The above statement was made by Rumsfeld on February 12, 2002 at a press briefing where he addressed the absence of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups.[1] It was criticised as an abuse of language by, among others, the Plain English Campaign.[2] However, linguist Geoffrey Pullum disagreed, saying the quotation was "completely straightforward" and "impeccable, syntactically, semantically, logically, and rhetorically."[3]

As for the substance of his statement, Rumsfeld's defenders have included Canadian columnist Mark Steyn, who called it "in fact a brilliant distillation of quite a complex matter",[2] and Australian economist and blogger John Quiggin, who wrote, "Although the language may be tortured, the basic point is both valid and important ... Having defended Rumsfeld, I’d point out that the considerations he refers to provide the case for being very cautious in going to war."[4] Moreover, one may criticize Rumsfeld's statement for omitting the most dangerous type of unknown: the "unknown known". That is, as Josh Billings famously expressed it, "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you think you know that just ain't so". Indeed, Rumsfeld was really discussing an "unknown known" which provided faulty justification for the war—members of the Bush administration claimed that the Iraqi government possessed weapons of mass destruction (see Rationale for the Iraq War), but it just wasn't so.

 

[zzzz]

There is also a possibility of the MIC hyping the threat to keep funding coming. There is a fine line between real and imagined threats and the US will always be tainted by Pearl Harbor. The MIC knows fully well the importance of perceived threats on funding of various programs and that is just as insidious as an external threat.

 

[waltky]

China makin' it's neighbors nervous...

Chinese missiles pose serious threat
Tue, May 21, 2013 - Over the past few days North Korea has tested a series of short-range missiles that have sparked unease across Asia.

While such tests are certainly cause for concern, Asia’s real missile challenge lies not with North Korea, but with China. Indeed, China’s military modernization since the mid-1980s through the present has focused on missiles. Beijing has developed one of the world’s most advanced ballistic and cruise missile programs. Unencumbered by treaty restrictions on medium-range missiles, the guardians of China’s missile program, the Second Artillery, have developed a vast array of platforms for a number of different military objectives.

There is one particular weapon that should raise alarm bells across the region. Dubbed the “carrier killer,” the DF-21D is a medium-range missile that has created a firestorm in the strategic studies community, academia as well as in the media. The weapon is fired from a mobile truck-mounted launcher into the atmosphere, with over-the-horizon radar, satellite tracking and possibly unmanned aerial vehicles each providing guidance. It also incorporates a maneuverable warhead to help find its target. The missiles likely uses a high explosive warhead that would be utilized in expected saturation strikes to achieve a mission kill against a maritime target. The weapon has created quite a stir in the US defense community, with some going so far as to question if the day of the aircraft carrier has passed.

As feared as this new missile system is, there remains an interesting wrinkle — it is not known to have been tested on a non-cooperative maritime target. While there have been reports of various tests overland, there has never been a test in what would come close to battlefield conditions. And when it comes to this particular missile, Beijing has good reason to never test such a system.

In view of today’s tense strategic landscape in Asia, a successful test of such a powerful weapon would create tremendous controversy. China’s neighbors, many of who have competing territorial claims with Beijing in the East and South China Seas, would be given a powerful reason to consider aligning ever closer with the US’ strategic interests, or consider approaching Washington to acquire or enhance their own US-made missile defense systems. While US missile defenses presently in Asia are a safeguard against North Korea, Beijing realizes they could, in theory, be used against Chinese conventional as well as nuclear missiles — something China desperately wants to avoid.

MORE

 

[Bleipriester]

Both China and North Korea have loyal and strong forces their wrath nobody wants to face.