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Polls have turned into World wide disasters with the advent of caller ID & cell phones. What used to be a participation rate of 80% has now dwindled down to 5%. The overwhelming majority will not pick up on unknown callers and pollsters cannot robocall cell phones. (The ones who will pick up on unknown callers, are typically elderly, and this early in the race will push the button on names they recognize) So Biden & Sanders get their buttons pushed more often than the others. Pollsters consider themselves lucky to get a thousand participants (I have seen them as low as 500) in national polls, then they do some fuzzy math to try & determine the sentiment of 250 million active voters. Always read the internals on any poll for a good laugh.
Case in point--(Senator Kamala Harris) the first poll after the 2nd debate showed her down. (Kamala Harris plummets was the headline). That poll was based on 1001 people of which 26% were Republicans. Yesterday an NBC/Wall street Journal poll showed that she was now in 5th place, behind Biden, Sanders. Warren & now Buttigieg. That poll was based on the opinion of 506 random Democrat primary voters.
Poll: Biden and Warren on the rise, while Harris plummets among 2020 field
Pollsters have blown elections here--the 2016 race, they blew the Brexit vote in the UK, they blew national elections in France & Australia. The best thing to do is ignore them and just vote. Do not let the media and their ridiculous polls sway your decision. Just VOTE!
Here is a great article to show how problematic polls really are.
The problem with polls
Here's why the majority of Brexit polls were wrong
Australia election: Why polls got it so wrong
How did everyone get it so wrong?
Gallup Quits Presidential Primary Horse Race Polling, Will Continue Issue-Based Polls
Case in point--(Senator Kamala Harris) the first poll after the 2nd debate showed her down. (Kamala Harris plummets was the headline). That poll was based on 1001 people of which 26% were Republicans. Yesterday an NBC/Wall street Journal poll showed that she was now in 5th place, behind Biden, Sanders. Warren & now Buttigieg. That poll was based on the opinion of 506 random Democrat primary voters.
Poll: Biden and Warren on the rise, while Harris plummets among 2020 field
Pollsters have blown elections here--the 2016 race, they blew the Brexit vote in the UK, they blew national elections in France & Australia. The best thing to do is ignore them and just vote. Do not let the media and their ridiculous polls sway your decision. Just VOTE!
Here is a great article to show how problematic polls really are.
The problem with polls
Here's why the majority of Brexit polls were wrong
Australia election: Why polls got it so wrong
How did everyone get it so wrong?
Gallup Quits Presidential Primary Horse Race Polling, Will Continue Issue-Based Polls