Berkeley Earth Project

[IanC]

a new global temperature data set is being prepared at Berkeley and should be online in the next few weeks. all the data and methodologies will be freely accessable.

my question is what differences do the posters here think will stand out? personally I am looking forward to seeing how they handle the much larger uncertainties in areas outside of northern hemisphere countries, and UHI everywhere. interesting times and I predict both sides will be pissed off.

 

[IanC]

sorry, I forgot to put up a link

Muller calls his latest obsession the Berkeley Earth project. The aim is so simple that the complexity and magnitude of the undertaking is easy to miss. Starting from scratch, with new computer tools and more data than has ever been used, they will arrive at an independent assessment of global warming. The team will also make every piece of data it uses – 1.6bn data points – freely available on a website. It will post its workings alongside, including full information on how more than 100 years of data from thousands of instruments around the world are stitched together to give a historic record of the planet's temperature.

Muller is fed up with the politicised row that all too often engulfs climate science. By laying all its data and workings out in the open, where they can be checked and challenged by anyone, the Berkeley team hopes to achieve something remarkable: a broader consensus on global warming. In no other field would Muller's dream seem so ambitious, or perhaps, so naive.

Among the trickiest errors to deal with are so-called systematic biases, which skew temperature measurements in fiendishly complex ways. Stations get moved around, replaced with newer models, or swapped for instruments that record in celsius instead of fahrenheit. The times measurements are taken varies, from say 6am to 9pm. The accuracy of individual stations drift over time and even changes in the surroundings, such as growing trees, can shield a station more from wind and sun one year to the next. Each of these interferes with a station's temperature measurements, perhaps making it read too cold, or too hot. And these errors combine and build up.

This is the real mess that will take a Herculean effort to clean up. The Berkeley Earth team is using algorithms that automatically correct for some of the errors, a strategy Muller favours because it doesn't rely on human interference. When the team publishes its results, this is where the scrutiny will be most intense.

Despite the scale of the task, and the fact that world-class scientific organisations have been wrestling with it for decades, Muller is convinced his approach will lead to a better assessment of how much the world is warming. "I've told the team I don't know if global warming is more or less than we hear, but I do believe we can get a more precise number, and we can do it in a way that will cool the arguments over climate change, if nothing else," says Muller. "Science has its weaknesses and it doesn't have a stranglehold on the truth, but it has a way of approaching technical issues that is a closer approximation of truth than any other method we have."

Can a group of scientists in California end the war on climate change? | Science | The Guardian

 

[Old Rocks]

Very interesting preliminery data set;

Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (© 2010)

Of course, if the Berkeley data set reinforces what Dr. Hansen is stating, then the immediate chorus from you and the rest will be what else would you expect from that Commie hotbed at Berkeley. LOL

 

[Old Rocks]

I like the bona fides of the men doing this study.

Richard A. Muller - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Muller obtained a A.B. degree at Columbia University (New York) and a Ph.D. degree in physics from University of California, Berkeley. Muller began his career as a graduate student under Nobel laureate Luis Alvarez doing particle physics experiments and working with bubble chambers. During his early years he also helped to cocreate accelerator mass spectroscopy and made some of the first measurements of anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background.

Subsequently, Muller branched out into other areas of science, and in particular the Earth sciences. His work has included attempting to understand the ice ages, dynamics at the core-mantle boundary, patterns of extinction and biodiversity through time, and the processes associated with impact cratering. One of his most well known proposals is the Nemesis hypothesis suggesting that the sun could have an as yet undetected companion dwarf star, whose perturbations of the Oort cloud and subsequent effects on the flux of comets entering the inner solar system could explain an apparent 26 million year periodicity in extinction events.


A lesson with Richard Muller[edit] Positions and recognitionMuller is a member of the JASON Defense Advisory Group which brings together prominent scientists as consultants for the United States Department of Defense.


Muller explaining antimatterHe was named a MacArthur Foundation Fellow in 1982. He also received the Alan T. Waterman Award from the National Science Foundation "for highly original and innovative research which has led to important discoveries and inventions in diverse areas of physics, including astrophysics, radioisotope dating, and optics." More recently, he received a distinguished teaching award from UC Berkeley [1]. His "Physics for Future Presidents" series of lectures, in which Muller teaches a synopsis of modern qualitative (i.e. without resorting to complicated math) physics, has been released publicly on YouTube by UC Berkeley and has been published in book form. It has been one of the most highly regarded courses at Berkeley.

On Thursday Dec 3rd 2009 Muller announced his retirement in his Letters in Science C70V lecture Dec 3rd 2009 Lecture 14 minutes 15 seconds into the lecture. He will continue to guest lecture the course which he created and has the popular name "Physics for Future Presidents" Bob Jacobsen now teaches the course. Muller said he will be putting most of his time into "energy, environment, global warming, alternative energy" 14 minutes 55 seconds into the same lecture.

 

[Old Rocks]

This is going to be interesting.

Robert Rohde | LinkedIn

Robert Rohde's Summary
Technical communicator and problem solver with generalist scientific training. Interested in work solving high impact technical problems with the possibility for variety of challenges. Possibly at the interface between technical and non-technical people.

Scientific publications have focused on complex data analysis and experimental problems related to climate change, climate and evolutionary history. Experienced in drawing actionable conclusions from large and fragmentary data sets. Extensive work in communication technical topics through written, oral, and visual means. Background in scientific and internet programming.

SpecialtiesData analysis, Technical illustrations, Climate change, Physics, Social media

Robert Rohde's Experience
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Research industry

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Owner / Technical Illustrator Global Warming Art
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May 2006 – Present (4 years 10 months)

Variety of work related to climate change communications:

* Original technical illustrations, map, and charts
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Images I have created have appeared in: The New York Times, Scientific American, Discover, the Birch Aquarium, an upcoming motion picture, and many other books and scientific publications.

Volunteer Wikimedia Foundation
Non-Profit; Internet industry

August 2003 – Present (7 years 7 months)

Tasks and administrative duties, including:

 

[IanC]

Very interesting preliminery data set;

Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (© 2010)

Of course, if the Berkeley data set reinforces what Dr. Hansen is stating, then the immediate chorus from you and the rest will be what else would you expect from that Commie hotbed at Berkeley. LOL

exactly! neither side is going to be happy. the temps wont go down much but the error bars will be much wider. both sides will claim victory but the public doesnt understand uncertainty so the media will see it as vindication and ignore the plus/minus figures and the arguments that you cant really take the overall global temp, just the trends in various regions. you cant really compare arctic trends that are plus/minus 2.0 degrees with american temps that are plus/minus 0.3 degrees.

 

[IanC]

[ QUOTE=Old Rocks;3372716]I like the bona fides of the men doing this study.

Richard A. Muller - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Muller obtained a A.B. degree at Columbia University (New York) and a Ph.D. degree in physics from University of California, Berkeley. Muller began his career as a graduate student under Nobel laureate Luis Alvarez doing particle physics experiments and working with bubble chambers. During his early years he also helped to cocreate accelerator mass spectroscopy and made some of the first measurements of anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background.

Subsequently, Muller branched out into other areas of science, and in particular the Earth sciences. His work has included attempting to understand the ice ages, dynamics at the core-mantle boundary, patterns of extinction and biodiversity through time, and the processes associated with impact cratering. One of his most well known proposals is the Nemesis hypothesis suggesting that the sun could have an as yet undetected companion dwarf star, whose perturbations of the Oort cloud and subsequent effects on the flux of comets entering the inner solar system could explain an apparent 26 million year periodicity in extinction events.


A lesson with Richard Muller[edit] Positions and recognitionMuller is a member of the JASON Defense Advisory Group which brings together prominent scientists as consultants for the United States Department of Defense.


Muller explaining antimatterHe was named a MacArthur Foundation Fellow in 1982. He also received the Alan T. Waterman Award from the National Science Foundation "for highly original and innovative research which has led to important discoveries and inventions in diverse areas of physics, including astrophysics, radioisotope dating, and optics." More recently, he received a distinguished teaching award from UC Berkeley [1]. His "Physics for Future Presidents" series of lectures, in which Muller teaches a synopsis of modern qualitative (i.e. without resorting to complicated math) physics, has been released publicly on YouTube by UC Berkeley and has been published in book form. It has been one of the most highly regarded courses at Berkeley.

On Thursday Dec 3rd 2009 Muller announced his retirement in his Letters in Science C70V lecture Dec 3rd 2009 Lecture 14 minutes 15 seconds into the lecture. He will continue to guest lecture the course which he created and has the popular name "Physics for Future Presidents" Bob Jacobsen now teaches the course. Muller said he will be putting most of his time into "energy, environment, global warming, alternative energy" 14 minutes 55 seconds into the same lecture.[/QUOTE]


Muller is one of the scientists that have been publicly admitting their embarrassment over the lack of rigour with papers like Mann's hockey stick. he can't believe it got past peer review and thinks it should be withdrawn.

 

[westwall]

It's interesting to see the massive drop in active GHCN stations from the 1980's on to the present day.

 

[IanC]

It's interesting to see the massive drop in active GHCN stations from the 1980's on to the present day.

I think a lot of those statiions are still reporting, just not counted. the new data set will use them but it is a real question as to how they will combine everything to find a 'global temp'. the extra data points will probably just lower the error bar. like I said, the idea of a single temperature for the world isnt real a valid concept.

it will be fun to see how the trends turn out and how they handle 'adjustments' though.

 

[westwall]

It's interesting to see the massive drop in active GHCN stations from the 1980's on to the present day.

I think a lot of those statiions are still reporting, just not counted. the new data set will use them but it is a real question as to how they will combine everything to find a 'global temp'. the extra data points will probably just lower the error bar. like I said, the idea of a single temperature for the world isnt real a valid concept.

it will be fun to see how the trends turn out and how they handle 'adjustments' though.

I agree, should be most interesting.

 

[Trakar]

...exactly! neither side is going to be happy. the temps wont go down much but the error bars will be much wider. both sides will claim victory but the public doesnt understand uncertainty so the media will see it as vindication and ignore the plus/minus figures and the arguments that you cant really take the overall global temp, just the trends in various regions. you cant really compare arctic trends that are plus/minus 2.0 degrees with american temps that are plus/minus 0.3 degrees.

It isn't a matter of "sides," it is a matter of whether or not the assessment is scientifically rigorous and accurate in its analysis.

 

[westwall]

...exactly! neither side is going to be happy. the temps wont go down much but the error bars will be much wider. both sides will claim victory but the public doesnt understand uncertainty so the media will see it as vindication and ignore the plus/minus figures and the arguments that you cant really take the overall global temp, just the trends in various regions. you cant really compare arctic trends that are plus/minus 2.0 degrees with american temps that are plus/minus 0.3 degrees.

It isn't a matter of "sides," it is a matter of whether or not the assessment is scientifically rigorous and accurate in its analysis.

Which the AGW "side" has been shown not to be.

 

[Trakar]

It isn't a matter of "sides," it is a matter of whether or not the assessment is scientifically rigorous and accurate in its analysis.

Which tghe AGW "side" has been shown not to be.

The bulk of the empiric evidence and mainstream scientific understanding disagrees with your assertion.

The Copenhagen Diagnosis - Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science 2009
The Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009

 

[Toronado3800]

Is someone saying Alaska is getting colder and glaciers are shrinking? Honest, I have been there. They are shrinking. Doubt that is because the place is getting colder.

Where are the glaciers growing?

 

[Old Rocks]

Here is a very good overview of the glaciers from the AGU conferance;

A42D

 

[skookerasbil]

Is someone saying Alaska is getting colder and glaciers are shrinking? Honest, I have been there. They are shrinking. Doubt that is because the place is getting colder.

Where are the glaciers growing?

Really? Was just wondering? How long did you have to stand there to notice a glacier was shrinking?

 

[westwall]

Is someone saying Alaska is getting colder and glaciers are shrinking? Honest, I have been there. They are shrinking. Doubt that is because the place is getting colder.

Where are the glaciers growing?

There are around 2000 glaciers that are growing in the Himalaya.

Record snowfall in HP revives 2,000 glaciers - The Economic Times

These are the glaciers in Norway that are known to be growing again,
Ålfotbreen Glacier
Briksdalsbreen Glacier
Nigardsbreen Glacier
Hardangerjøkulen Glacier
Hansebreen Glacier
Jostefonn Glacier
Engabreen glacier

In Canada these two are increasing,
Helm Glacier
Place Glacier

The Silvretta Glacier is growing in Switzerland and there are a few growing in the Italian Alps and one in France if memory serves.

 

[skookerasbil]

.....the k00ks dont want anybody to know about the Himilayan glaciers!!!

 

[Trakar]

Really? Was just wondering? How long did you have to stand there to notice a glacier was shrinking?

Alaska is not getting colder
Alaska Climate Change

It doesn't take long at all, to see that a glacier is shrinking, if you know what you are looking at.
http://www.soils.umn.edu/academics/classes/soil2125/img/glaclndf.jpg

Global glacier retreat

photos

USGS Multimedia Gallery: Glaciers Photo Set

 

[Trakar]

There are around 2000 glaciers that are growing in the Himalaya.

Record snowfall in HP revives 2,000 glaciers - The Economic Times

These are the glaciers in Norway that are known to be growing again,
Ålfotbreen Glacier
Briksdalsbreen Glacier
Nigardsbreen Glacier
Hardangerjøkulen Glacier
Hansebreen Glacier
Jostefonn Glacier
Engabreen glacier

In Canada these two are increasing,
Helm Glacier
Place Glacier

The Silvretta Glacier is growing in Switzerland and there are a few growing in the Italian Alps and one in France if memory serves.

Again with the third world tabloids accounts? Do you have a legitimate science journal government agency, or university reference?

Mass Balance Approach to Study Glaciers Dynamics in the Himalayas - SpringerLink - Abstract

There is a strong evidence that the glaciers of the Himalayas are in the process of a rapid meltdown. The implications of this development will be broad and sweeping for the river systems and more generally for the water resources of South Asia. The consequences will be grave for food production and livelihood of hundreds of millions of people...

A model study of the energy and mass balance of Chhota Shigri glacier in the Western Himalaya, India - http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/95/2011/tcd-5-95-2011.pdf

...The aggregate mass balance of Himalaya mountain glaciers has been negative during the last decades (Ren et al., 2006) with some exceptions in the higher Karakoram
mountain range (Hewitt, 2005). This conforms to a global trend, in which Himalaya
glaciers are in the medium range of glacier wastage. Despite the growing interest
25 in Himalaya glaciers observations of glacier mass balance in the region are relatively
sparse owing to the difficulties of field work in remote and politically unstable areas
(IGOS, 2007; Inman, 2010). Remote sensing estimates have confirmed overall negative
mass balances for the Western Himalaya and a recent acceleration of glacier
wastage in the region (Berthier et al., 2007)...

Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover - http://geokomm.de/media/de/ScherlerPaper.pdf

Controversy about the current state and future evolution of Himalayan glaciers has been stirred up by erroneous statements in the fourth report by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change1,2. Variable retreat rates 3–6 and a paucity of glacial mass-balance data7,8 make it difficult to develop a coherent picture of regional climate-change
impacts in the region. Here, we report remotely-sensed frontal changes and surface velocities from glaciers in the greater Himalaya between 2000 and 2008 that provide evidence for strong spatial variations in glacier behaviour which are linked to topography and climate...
...When mass-balance data are unavailable, scientists often refer to glacier retreats and advances as indicators of their response to climate change7,14, but frontal changes are not unambiguous indicators. Supraglacial debris cover influences the terminus dynamics and can thereby modify a glacier's response to climate change. In the central Himalaya, recent studies found several debris covered glaciers with stagnant, that is, non-flowing, glacier reaches that extend several kilometres upstream from their termini15,16. Although growing meltwater ponds and surface lowering indicate that such glaciers are currently shrinking, their fronts remain remarkably stable17, as also been observed in other regions18,19. So far, however, the significance of debris cover and its impact on regional differences in the frontal dynamics of Himalayan glaciers has not been established at the mountain-belt scale...
...According to simple modelling, the length change and timescale of a glacier's response to climate change are inversely proportional to its surface slope and also depend on local climate and glacier size14. However, these factors do not adequately explain the observed different retreat rates between debris-free and debris-covered glaciers (Supplementary Figs S4,S5). In summary, widespread debris cover on many Himalayan glaciers reduces
their retreat rates, which are therefore unsuitable as indicators of recent climate change. Nevertheless, glaciers with extensive stagnant reaches indicate negative mass balances1517, and have the potential to build up hazardous moraine-dammed lakes15,19...