Thomas Gomart, Valdai Club expert shares his views on Europe's eastern frontier.
The current internal political situation in Belarus is unusual. It was not that long ago that President Lukashenko was re-elected in elections seen as unfair by the international community. Unlike other leaders in a similar position, Laurent Gbagbo for instance in Ivory Coast, Lukashenko has been much more successful: he has managed to remain in office, there has been no intervention. The international community is much less interested in the domestic situation inside Belarus by comparison with that in other countries.
Relations between Belarus and Russia are growing increasingly complicated, in part as a result of President LukashenkoÂ’s personal evolution, but also in the light of the Customs Union project (comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). Although the Customs Union project has undeniable importance for Moscow, dealing with President Lukashenko is becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Russia. In particular, the way President LukashenkoÂ’s regime has evolved has made it ever more difficult for the Kremlin, and especially for President Medvedev, to continue to deal consistently with this leadership.
Domestically, the terrible terrorist attack in Minsk will certainly be used by the leadership to justify political restrictions and heightened political control. This is a process that can be observed in many countries, it is common for terror threats to be used to justify the introduction of additional security measures, which can have an impact on civil liberties. So from this point of view I do expect the political leadership will use it to justify an increased concentration of power.
Full version of his article was published on valdaiclub.com
The current internal political situation in Belarus is unusual. It was not that long ago that President Lukashenko was re-elected in elections seen as unfair by the international community. Unlike other leaders in a similar position, Laurent Gbagbo for instance in Ivory Coast, Lukashenko has been much more successful: he has managed to remain in office, there has been no intervention. The international community is much less interested in the domestic situation inside Belarus by comparison with that in other countries.
Relations between Belarus and Russia are growing increasingly complicated, in part as a result of President LukashenkoÂ’s personal evolution, but also in the light of the Customs Union project (comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). Although the Customs Union project has undeniable importance for Moscow, dealing with President Lukashenko is becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Russia. In particular, the way President LukashenkoÂ’s regime has evolved has made it ever more difficult for the Kremlin, and especially for President Medvedev, to continue to deal consistently with this leadership.
Domestically, the terrible terrorist attack in Minsk will certainly be used by the leadership to justify political restrictions and heightened political control. This is a process that can be observed in many countries, it is common for terror threats to be used to justify the introduction of additional security measures, which can have an impact on civil liberties. So from this point of view I do expect the political leadership will use it to justify an increased concentration of power.
Full version of his article was published on valdaiclub.com