ScienceRocks
Democrat all the way!
- Banned
- #1
Based on the data Trump will win all the super tuesday states east of the Mississippi..Mass, Tenn, Ga, Va, VT and AL without much question. Some of these will probably be blow outs by 15-25 points in trumps favor.
Trump will probably win Ok, but will be very close in other parts of the country west of the Mississippi on super tuesday...The Santorum(Hickabee 2008) states like ARK, Co, Minnesota and wy could very well go to Cruz or be a close call. Cruz also has Texas and Trump better hope like a son of a bitch he doesn't get to 50% or Cruz carries out of there all the delegates(170).
The bad news is there's no recent polling for any of these outside of ARK, Ok and Texas that are west of the Mississippi. So we have to look at history to understand that they won't be as easy for trump get a win as the ones that are east.
I find this primary set-up far harder for the front runner and far more in favor of a deep red conservative then any primary I've ever witnessed. I doubt Romney would of won the nomination if he hadn't been able to go straight to Florida which shut Santorum down! Texas was also much later in the game and didn't matter too much by the time it came around.
If Trump can make it to the 15th as a healthy front runner he should be able to shut the door on Cruz, but it is going to be a fight. The reason I believe this to be so is 1. starting the 15th it is centered on larger states that are more moderate and 2. they're winner take all. The problem until then is A 50% win in texas, along with wins in Ark, Co and Minnesota for Cruz could give him enough strength to win some of the other Santorum states like Kentucky on the 5th and be a serious pain in the ass into mid month. I don't understand why Trump isn't spending any real time in these states to attempt to shut the door on cruz.
Trump will probably win Ok, but will be very close in other parts of the country west of the Mississippi on super tuesday...The Santorum(Hickabee 2008) states like ARK, Co, Minnesota and wy could very well go to Cruz or be a close call. Cruz also has Texas and Trump better hope like a son of a bitch he doesn't get to 50% or Cruz carries out of there all the delegates(170).
The bad news is there's no recent polling for any of these outside of ARK, Ok and Texas that are west of the Mississippi. So we have to look at history to understand that they won't be as easy for trump get a win as the ones that are east.
I find this primary set-up far harder for the front runner and far more in favor of a deep red conservative then any primary I've ever witnessed. I doubt Romney would of won the nomination if he hadn't been able to go straight to Florida which shut Santorum down! Texas was also much later in the game and didn't matter too much by the time it came around.
If Trump can make it to the 15th as a healthy front runner he should be able to shut the door on Cruz, but it is going to be a fight. The reason I believe this to be so is 1. starting the 15th it is centered on larger states that are more moderate and 2. they're winner take all. The problem until then is A 50% win in texas, along with wins in Ark, Co and Minnesota for Cruz could give him enough strength to win some of the other Santorum states like Kentucky on the 5th and be a serious pain in the ass into mid month. I don't understand why Trump isn't spending any real time in these states to attempt to shut the door on cruz.
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