I think Baker Report is a step in right direction especially with Turkey.
Most crucial concerns of Turkey are mentioned and especially delay of Kerkük referendum (which high-likely is a whole cancellation) is good.
Kurds in Iraq are not happy with the report as you can read here:
Is Baker a Turk or an American?
http://www.kurdmedia.com/articles.asp?id=13697
Kurdish leader rejects Baker-Hamilton report
http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=13702
Recommendation Number 26 which calls for a Constitution review is also rejected by Kurds. Although achieving participation of Sunnites in December elections was achieved with same promise, as the Constitution was framed by Kurds and Shiites with completely own interests and not of whole Iraq's interests. Which Sunnites are part of, too.
Recommendation Number 28, to put Oil authority under Bagdad central government and sharing of Oil revenues according to population data is what all neighbours want and is a uniting factor between all factions in Iraq.
Kurds want for example future Ol fields in their authority geography to be wholly used by Kurds themselves. But existing Oil fields in South Iraq for example they want their share from.
So this is illogical and to put all authority of Oil revenues under Bagdad government in every corner of the country is the right step to go.
Recommendation Number 30 to delay Kerkük referendum and to launch a new diplomatic Offensive for Kerkük not to explode is a concession for Turkey as Kirkuk under Kurdish authority is declared casus belli from Turkish Army.
So best is to give Kerkük special status like Bagdad and not include it in any "federal" region.
Whole Recommendation is against Kurdish interests.
So Barzani's threats regarding Kerkük
are by Baker understood as the lesser evil than consequences from Turkey of such step.
---
---
All in all, Baker report and all other reports which Bush might listen to but which i believe will not change in recommendations about Turkey and its concerns, but more on Iran and Syria is a sign of greater role of Central Bagdad Government.
Time for "almost independent" and "highly autonomous" games or leaving politics to self-egoist factions in Bagdad parliament without fear of consequences for the region or American patience seems to be definitely over.
I sometimes really had the feeling that somebodies behaved like children in candy shops, wanting this and that and USA only watched. A nice revue.
Watched, till situation got out of control and course change is needed by USA.
That all these recommendations do especially not stick with Kurds is understandable but they do not have a choice. Their value with more and more unlikely war against Iran is nearing the zero point.
Those Kurds got really in Megalomania and Iraq being restructured into power mechanism of broader region and lesser USA presence in Iraq will again move power mechanism especially in North Iraq to realistically points. And here Turkey is the giant.
When i think that Barzani is giving PKK presence in North-Iraq, Talabani is threatening Turkey to interfere in Turkey, then this is Megalomania in full reliance to Uncle Sam. Times change, as we see and we Turks have a good memory and some barking elements in our neighborhood will for sure be silenced, not by force as i a long time wished, but by simple power mechanism as USA is getting out of Iraq business (or plans to) not inevtibale leaving the country.
But that does not matter if USA leaves Iraq or not for Turkey, what matters is that USA gives up practize of keeping Turkey consequently out of Iraq now for more then 3 years.
So Turks are back and recommendations of Baker report are to the satisfaction of Turkey. Those gaining space and satisfaction by USA blocking Turkey in Iraq for last 3 years giving them opportunity to move in shoes which are some numbers to big for them, are off course now dissatisfied.
Most crucial concerns of Turkey are mentioned and especially delay of Kerkük referendum (which high-likely is a whole cancellation) is good.
Kurds in Iraq are not happy with the report as you can read here:
Is Baker a Turk or an American?
http://www.kurdmedia.com/articles.asp?id=13697
Kurdish leader rejects Baker-Hamilton report
http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=13702
Recommendation Number 26 which calls for a Constitution review is also rejected by Kurds. Although achieving participation of Sunnites in December elections was achieved with same promise, as the Constitution was framed by Kurds and Shiites with completely own interests and not of whole Iraq's interests. Which Sunnites are part of, too.
Recommendation Number 28, to put Oil authority under Bagdad central government and sharing of Oil revenues according to population data is what all neighbours want and is a uniting factor between all factions in Iraq.
Kurds want for example future Ol fields in their authority geography to be wholly used by Kurds themselves. But existing Oil fields in South Iraq for example they want their share from.
So this is illogical and to put all authority of Oil revenues under Bagdad government in every corner of the country is the right step to go.
Recommendation Number 30 to delay Kerkük referendum and to launch a new diplomatic Offensive for Kerkük not to explode is a concession for Turkey as Kirkuk under Kurdish authority is declared casus belli from Turkish Army.
So best is to give Kerkük special status like Bagdad and not include it in any "federal" region.
Whole Recommendation is against Kurdish interests.
So Barzani's threats regarding Kerkük
http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=13702
are by Baker understood as the lesser evil than consequences from Turkey of such step.
---
---
All in all, Baker report and all other reports which Bush might listen to but which i believe will not change in recommendations about Turkey and its concerns, but more on Iran and Syria is a sign of greater role of Central Bagdad Government.
Time for "almost independent" and "highly autonomous" games or leaving politics to self-egoist factions in Bagdad parliament without fear of consequences for the region or American patience seems to be definitely over.
I sometimes really had the feeling that somebodies behaved like children in candy shops, wanting this and that and USA only watched. A nice revue.
Watched, till situation got out of control and course change is needed by USA.
That all these recommendations do especially not stick with Kurds is understandable but they do not have a choice. Their value with more and more unlikely war against Iran is nearing the zero point.
Those Kurds got really in Megalomania and Iraq being restructured into power mechanism of broader region and lesser USA presence in Iraq will again move power mechanism especially in North Iraq to realistically points. And here Turkey is the giant.
When i think that Barzani is giving PKK presence in North-Iraq, Talabani is threatening Turkey to interfere in Turkey, then this is Megalomania in full reliance to Uncle Sam. Times change, as we see and we Turks have a good memory and some barking elements in our neighborhood will for sure be silenced, not by force as i a long time wished, but by simple power mechanism as USA is getting out of Iraq business (or plans to) not inevtibale leaving the country.
But that does not matter if USA leaves Iraq or not for Turkey, what matters is that USA gives up practize of keeping Turkey consequently out of Iraq now for more then 3 years.
So Turks are back and recommendations of Baker report are to the satisfaction of Turkey. Those gaining space and satisfaction by USA blocking Turkey in Iraq for last 3 years giving them opportunity to move in shoes which are some numbers to big for them, are off course now dissatisfied.
