Arctic Ice

[eagle1462010]

 

[Old Rocks]

Though the president is on the right track regarding 2014’s temperatures, the addition of “most likely” to this talking point would put him on stronger ground.


Editor’s Note: SciCheck is made possible by a grant from the Stanton Foundation.

– Dave Levitan

Obama and the Warmest Year on Record

A more credible graph.

 

[eagle1462010]

Though the president is on the right track regarding 2014’s temperatures, the addition of “most likely” to this talking point would put him on stronger ground.


Editor’s Note: SciCheck is made possible by a grant from the Stanton Foundation.

– Dave Levitan

Obama and the Warmest Year on Record

A more credible graph.

Check out the UAH data.

 

[Crick]

Crick predicts an ice free Arctic this summer. I hope I remember to bump this in September.

You're not even quoting yourself accurately

 

[Crick]

Though the president is on the right track regarding 2014’s temperatures, the addition of “most likely” to this talking point would put him on stronger ground.


Editor’s Note: SciCheck is made possible by a grant from the Stanton Foundation.

– Dave Levitan

Obama and the Warmest Year on Record

A more credible graph.

Check out the UAH data.

Did you miss the point about presenting more credible data?

And when you give us direction as vague as "Check out the UAH data" it would seem to indicate that you haven't got anything in particular in mind, that you may be having difficulty selecting and presenting data that illustrate the point you're attempting to push or perhaps even presenting any data at all.

What specfic UAH data did you have in mind? What point were you attempting to get across?

 

[IanC]

there you go crick, you whiney little douchebag.

CRICK SAID: ↑
If you're looking at Arctic ice extents, why are you looking at all these graphs that dilute that value with other snow and ice data? Why not look at the direct measurements, like these:

your graph, placed directly so it doesnt get hidden in a quote-

what kind of a fcuking retard would put up an obviously failed prediction of an ice free Arctic by 2015? an IPCC bible thumping douchebag like crick.


people should grow up and think for themselves rather than fall for alarmist crap graphs tailor-made to give them nightmares. which graph do you think reflects the reality of the situation? crick's failed prediction of an ice free Arctic? or graphs showing ice loss in context?

 

[Crick]

Once again you put up global ice when Arctic ice is the topic.

You put up area graphs in response to a volume graph.

Your graphs are plotted on scales that make them absolutely unreadable. However, look at this graphic, just pulled from nsidc.org:

These data clearly show, year round, more than a million square kilometer difference between current extent values and the 1981-2010 mean - the same mean your graphic uses. Yet on your first graphic, you can see NO movement away from the mean. You know what might be a good idea? Why don't you tell us where you got your graph from? You know, like you should have done in the first place. Then you might explain why there's such a large difference between your first graph and your second graph that purport to show the same data.

 

[IanC]

Once again you put up global ice when Arctic ice is the topic.

You put up area graphs in response to a volume graph.

Your graphs are plotted on scales that make them absolutely unreadable. However, look at this graphic, just pulled from nsidc.org:

These data clearly show, year round, more than a million square kilometer difference between current extent values and the 1981-2010 mean - the same mean your graphic uses. Yet on your first graphic, you can see NO movement away from the mean. You know what might be a good idea? Why don't you tell us where you got your graph from? You know, like you should have done in the first place. Then you might explain why there's such a large difference between your first graph and your second graph that purport to show the same data.

Are you really this stupid?

I put up graphs showing the full cycle of melt and refreeze to point out the context, the overview of what happens in the Arctic.

You counter with a failed ice free Arctic by 2015 graph from Piomas and have the nerve to call it 'direct measurements' even though it is yet another climate model that goes through periodical version changes that 'prove' things are worse than we thought.

Then you complain that my graph is diluted with non Arctic Ocean ice. So I show you an Arctic Basin Sea Ice Extent graph. Did you notice the yearly max is always the same (except 87, satellite error I presume). Can you figure out why it is always the same? The min has been lower lately so what? There is no death spiral there.

I really don't see you giving any thought to these things. You just see a scary graph and want with all your heart to believe. It's pathetic really that a sixty year old man should be so gullible after all the other false alarms you've lived through.

 

[Crick]

Explain why Arctic Ice Area in your second graph (the NSIDC data) drops a couple million square kilometers while Arctic Ice Area in your first (unidentified) graph doesn't budge from zeo anomaly.

 

[Crick]

Are you really this stupid?

How stupid is that?

I put up graphs showing the full cycle of melt and refreeze to point out the context, the overview of what happens in the Arctic.

You put up graphs with the annual fluctuation still in place making it exceedingly difficult to see long term trends.

You counter with a failed ice free Arctic by 2015 graph from Piomas and have the nerve to call it 'direct measurements' even though it is yet another climate model that goes through periodical version changes that 'prove' things are worse than we thought.

The Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System estimates total ice volume from measurements of area and thickness. It does NOT make projections. The red line on that graph was simply a linear fit trend.

Then you complain that my graph is diluted with non Arctic Ocean ice.

You were presenting global and northern hemisphere data. To what point?

So I show you an Arctic Basin Sea Ice Extent graph. Did you notice the yearly max is always the same (except 87, satellite error I presume). Can you figure out why it is always the same? The min has been lower lately so what? There is no death spiral there.

I really don't see you giving any thought to these things. You just see a scary graph and want with all your heart to believe. It's pathetic really that a sixty year old man should be so gullible after all the other false alarms you've lived through.

Where did your first plot come from Ian? The one that shows no downward trend. It's a simple enough question. Why haven't we seen an answer yet?

 

[IanC]

Explain why Arctic Ice Area in your second graph (the NSIDC data) drops a couple million square kilometers while Arctic Ice Area in your first (unidentified) graph doesn't budge from zeo anomaly.

I really dont know why you refuse to read my comments. I try to put up thoughts that will challenge other people to think by looking at the evidence and making sense of it. You, for whatever reason, seem to fail at making logical conclusions on evidence.

the Arctic Basin graph is just that. the enclosed area at the top of the globe. every year it freezes up, basically completely. Arctic ice also measures other areas that are much more variable places. like east of Greenland, Hudson's Bay, Bering Sea, etc.

you are the one who brought up comparing the two. I thought it a poor debating tactic at the time but I hoped you had some interesting spin on the difference. apparantly you just wanted to be contrary. it failed.

in case you failed to make the implied intent I will spoonfeed it to you. Arctic Basin max will almost always max out during the winter at some time. Arctic Ice extent measures a bigger area that contain the variable fringes of sea ice. therefore the basin max is stable and the arctic ice is not.

just because I like to share -

here is the area that gives most of the variability to the scare graphs.

Bering Sea? variable but not much trend.

edit. I must admit I put up the Bering graph without really thinking what it showed besides the extent and anomaly. after seeing it posted I noticed that it is opposite to the Arctic Basin scenario. instead of a consistent maximum it has a consistent minimum, zero. just sayin'

would we be more interested or less if the Media was proclaiming Greenland to be ice free by 2012, or 2015, or whatever prediction you or they are using today.

 

[IanC]

how interesting. DMI is showing an exceptionally weak and late start to the Greenland summer melt.

Left: Maps showing areas where melting has taken place within the last two days. Right: The percentage of the total area of the ice where the melting occurred from January 1 until today (in blue). For comparison the average for the period 1990-2011 is shown in the dark grey curve. The variation from year to year for each of the days during the melt season are shown as the gray shaded area



if this keeps up they will have to go offline for a while and come back with a new and improved reanalysis to show the 'real' results. hahahahaha

 

[Billy_Bob]

Explain why Arctic Ice Area in your second graph (the NSIDC data) drops a couple million square kilometers while Arctic Ice Area in your first (unidentified) graph doesn't budge from zeo anomaly.

What a fucking moron.. You dont know the difference between anomaly and total sea ice extent? One is an actual measurement the other is a contrived number based on a random period considered to be the base normal.

 

[Billy_Bob]

how interesting. DMI is showing an exceptionally weak and late start to the Greenland summer melt.

Left: Maps showing areas where melting has taken place within the last two days. Right: The percentage of the total area of the ice where the melting occurred from January 1 until today (in blue). For comparison the average for the period 1990-2011 is shown in the dark grey curve. The variation from year to year for each of the days during the melt season are shown as the gray shaded area



if this keeps up they will have to go offline for a while and come back with a new and improved reanalysis to show the 'real' results. hahahahaha

The warm water in the pacific is no longer being pushed up over the continental shelf which was the reason for Greenland warming. The flow has now changed and cold water is now circulating Greenland. The slow start to melt season is not unexpected due to this change. Were about to see rapid ice growth in that region. I expect this fall to be one very cold, snow and ice producing year for that region. We are about to sea Arctic ice rebound with a vengeance.

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic News


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic on May 30, 2015.



Sure, Billy ol' Boob. Anything else for us out of your ass today?

 

[jc456]

Arctic News


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic on May 30, 2015.



Sure, Billy ol' Boob. Anything else for us out of your ass today?

What does the cryosphere at U of I say?

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic News


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic on May 30, 2015.



Sure, Billy ol' Boob. Anything else for us out of your ass today?

What does the cryosphere at U of I say?

Why don't you tell us with a link included?

 

[jc456]

Arctic News


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic on May 30, 2015.



Sure, Billy ol' Boob. Anything else for us out of your ass today?

What does the cryosphere at U of I say?

Why don't you tell us with a link included?

Because you can't? hahahahahaha, I was on a mobile and it is much too hard with a mobile phone. But you could have, but didn't. hmmmm, any special reason?

 

[Crick]

The warm water in the pacific is no longer being pushed up over the continental shelf which was the reason for Greenland warming. The flow has now changed and cold water is now circulating Greenland. The slow start to melt season is not unexpected due to this change. Were about to see rapid ice growth in that region. I expect this fall to be one very cold, snow and ice producing year for that region. We are about to sea Arctic ice rebound with a vengeance.

Uhh... Billy? Billy? I really hate to be the bearer of bad news... but, you know... you know... Greenland...well, Greenland isn't in the Pacific Billy.

 

[jc456]

Arctic News


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic on May 30, 2015.



Sure, Billy ol' Boob. Anything else for us out of your ass today?

What does the cryosphere at U of I say?

Why don't you tell us with a link included?

So dude where's that cryosphere U of I link? Come now what are you afraid of?