I think the past month has already demonstrated the results. Things opened up, positives rose and deaths dropped.While I don't normally spend a lot of time looking at Sweden, from what I've read, the Swedish government has recently tried to pressure people to be more careful, but the next 2 to 4 weeks should give us a clearer idea of what is going on.The positive rate is increasing because many people have relaxed their own restrictions. Same dynamic as here in US without government making it happen.The question is why is the infection rate increasing so rapidly since there has been no significant change in the rules and regulations in Sweden. The chart indicates she is using test adjusted infection rates, which means she has statistically factored out the effect of more testing on the infection rate. So when you look at that dark line showing infections, it means there is a much higher rate of those being tested being positive. If herd immunity were setting in, that would not be the case.Your job is to determine why the infection rate is higher. My guess is that it’s a combo of less restrictive behavior combined with more testing. The only apples-to-apples is the death rate. That is significantly lower in spite of the infections. Seems to me the threat is behind us.Since the testing adjusted infection rate is skyrocketing, clearly there is no herd immunity, so if the mortality rate is falling, it must be for other causes than herd immunity. The fact that the chart is using testing adjusted new infections means you can't claim the higher infection rate is due to more testing. It may be that the new deaths are lower because over the course of the disease Sweden's very high mortality rate has already killed off most of the vulnerable people in Sweden.It’s the rate over the course of the virus. It is way down.No, deaths are increasing.Not true.If their parents are in good health, perhaps they won't die but then they can't responsibly visit their parents or any other place where elderly or people with compromised health are.If their parents are in good health, they won't have to worry about it. If they act responsibly, or their parents remind them, they'll stay away from their grandparents for a few weeks.Perhaps, but when they visit home, they will have the opportunity to infect and kill their parents and grandparents and perhaps even some elderly neighbors. Great kids!What dosn't make sense?
These are young adults -- college-age, Hence the party and gambling mentality -- who stand a very, very, very, good chance of getting nothing more than a sniffle or two. Oh, and a pot of money.
Kids, what ya going to do?
Again, the panic and irrational fear in this country is just mind-boggling.
There never was a time when we were going to prevent the outbreak or hold the spread of this virus. Not ever.
Best to embrace the real science and let the virus run its course and just take the measures needed to protect the vulnerable. Lockdowns ARE NOT the correct policy.
Herd immunity is so far a myth. The Swedes tried to let the virus run its course predicting they would have herd immunity by May, but so far their infection rates and mortality rates are skyrocketing and herd immunity is nowhere in sight.
Not enough is known about the virus at this point to make glib assertions about it. New research suggests that people who are asymptomatic may have certain T cells others do not have and that's why they don't get very sick and that antibodies from a first infection may only provide protection for a limited period of time.
So far as we know today, herd immunity can only be achieved when we have effective vaccines and then only if nearly everyone has been vaccinated. The behavior of the students at this party is selfish and irresponsible and their parents should tell them not to come home until everyone has been vaccinated, which would be next summer at the very earlies.
Sweden’s positive tests have gone up while ICU and deaths are way down.
Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per 1M Population | RealClearPolitics
Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per Population | RealClearPoliticswww.realclearpolitics.com
Look at this chart...
The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis
By Nic Lewis The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements a…www.google.com
Why the mortality rate is falling remains a mystery and the only explanation I can see is that the virus has already killed off most of the vulnerable people in Sweden.
It is worth noting that Anders Tegnell, the man who persuaded the government to keep the economy open, has since said:
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'“If we would encounter the same disease, with exactly what we know about it today, I think we would land midway between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did,” said Mr Tegnell in the interview broadcast on Wednesday morning. Mr Tegnell’s admission is striking as for months he has criticised other countries’ lockdowns and insisted that Sweden’s approach was more sustainable despite heavy international scrutiny of its stubbornly high death toll.'
Swedish expert admits country should have had tighter coronavirus controls
Shift comes as Stockholm promises a commission to investigate approach to pandemicwww.ft.com
It has been announced that Tegnell will be going on vacation and the Swedish government, unhappy with the results so far, will be opening an investigation into Tegnell's policy.
Could have done this in March.