Trump can draw in new voters and piss off everyone else.
That's what the polls have been saying for six months.
Fair enough.
The real question is, are there people who voted for the Weird Mormon Robot last time who won't vote for Trump. Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe Right Wing Hatred for Hillary is so great the Republicans could run the C'Thulhu/Cheney ticket and still get their votes.
Here's the votes Trump can get -
Working class folks who don't think either party speaks for them. A lot of these people are supporting Bernie on the other side, and maybe they might go for Trump. A lot of my family are union folks who have expressed that exact opinion, even though they think Trump is a "buffoon", he's a buffoon who is saying what they want to hear.
People who don't normally participate in politics, but do watch reality TV and think that Trump is successful and smart because the TV has told them so.
What has amazed me is that Trump has managed to pretty much ignore the usual Republican talking points about gays and abortion and tax cuts for rich people and STILL managed to get a sizable share of the vote.
At best, Trump speaks for a group that our politics has ignored, the ones who don't have lobbyists in Washington, unlike the trial lawyers and the corporations.
Frankly, I"m horrified this guy could become President, but I don't discount the possibility.