As of today, the probability of a nuclear apocalypse is at least 50%.
Politicians are overreacting - and events are about to go into a tailspin.
Let us try to explain on fingers...
Right now, there are referendums on the territories of Ukraine that are under the control of the Russian armed forces and pro-Russian formations - on the incorporation of these lands into Russia.
It is clear that the leadership of Ukraine strongly dislikes this (to put it mildly). And it goes without saying that Kiev is now thinking very seriously about the question: what to do in such a situation?
They are not going to recognize the results of the referendum - this, I think, is not necessary to explain.
So...
Option one is to interfere.
This variant has been implemented in the Kharkov region - the referendum issue is closed there.
However, they will hardly have time to interfere in other territories - the Kremlin acts quickly.
The second variant remains: to level the consequences of the referendum in at least one of the regions, to turn it into a mockery, to discredit it and prove that any results of the referendums are figments of the law, which Ukraine does not care about.
How can this be done?
Protests, demarches, appeals to the international community, waving fists and other media noise will not help.
Hence we need concrete actions.
What kind of deeds can we talk about?
There isn't much of a choice here.
A strike on Donetsk or Luhansk is almost out of the question. They have been preparing for defenses there for more than a year. In addition, the front line is twisting in such a way that by attacking Donetsk or Luhansk the Ukrainian troops risk driving themselves into a "cauldron.
A strike on some remote village, even in case of its successful capture, will remain practically unnoticed and will be written off by the Russian propaganda as a ridiculous coincidence. It is not worth the trouble there.
There is no point in talking about Crimea - it is away from the front line, in the rear. Some sporadic sabotage can be carried out there, but no more than that.
If you cross out the Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk, there is only one regional center of Ukraine controlled by Moscow - Kherson. Which is located on the right bank of the Dnieper River. That is, in relation to Russia and Crimea, Kherson is located beyond the Dnieper.
The group of Russian troops controlling Kherson and the surrounding land is only connected to the "big land" by two bridges, one of which is badly damaged and the other is occasionally shelled. This is of course a disadvantageous position. If the bridges are completely destroyed, the Russians controlling Kherson will find themselves surrounded. It is possible, of course, to make pontoon crossings, but it is not so easy. In addition, these crossings can also be attacked...
However, the most important thing is that Kherson is the only regional center in Ukraine (apart from Donetsk and Lugansk) controlled by Moscow. It is the only regional center that Ukraine has lost in seven months of special operations.
If the Ukrainian troops managed to take this city back in the near future, by doing so Kiev would be able to prove to the whole world that any referendums held by the Kremlin on the Ukrainian territory are not worth a damn.
And so...
So we'd be surprised if Ukraine doesn't strike Kherson in the near future.
Of course, it will cost a lot of casualties. But if Kiev doesn't hold out for the price - they could really take the city.
And then what?
Then the Kremlin's reputation and all its plans will be at risk.
And the Kremlin's already on edge. Really pissed off!
In fact, they're backed into a corner. They are well aware of that. I emphasize - perfectly. That's why they're dropping hints about the possibility of nuclear weapons and emphasizing that it's not a bluff.
In a way, it's really not a bluff.
That is, the Russian Federation will not strike London or Paris - it is fraught with an imminent and merciless retaliation. As for Ukraine... There are possible nuances here.
Of course, to wipe Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa or Lviv off the face of the earth is too much. In addition, Kharkiv is located near the Russian border - the neighboring Belgorod oblast will have its share. And from Lviv it is not far to the border with Poland - it will affect Poland there.
And why, one may ask, why should the above-mentioned cities be wiped off the face of the earth if there are no military operations in their area?...
But for Kherson, which is occupied by Ukrainian troops (and by numerous troops, because the few will not be able to capture it), perhaps it is possible to hit it. That is to say, it is not Kherson at all, but the Ukropean troops that have entered Kherson... Well, what can you do - war is war, there are battles going on, that's all...
Yes, of course there are civilians in the city. But this argument can always be parried by the counter-argument that there are not many civilians left. All of them were evacuated... Well, maybe there were some bandera worshippers who evaded evacuation and now are greeting Ukrainian soldiers with flowers. Well, why pity them? Yes, and they would not be touched, but the fighting is going on, the fascists can break through to the Crimea, Putin must crush them by all available means ...
Even by sacrifice of Kherson
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