Munin
VIP Member
- Dec 5, 2008
- 1,308
- 96
- 83
In the other topic "China Can Wipe Out US Forces In Asia If War Breaks Out, Says Report" there was a discussion about warfare & the mentioning of the use of nuclear weapons. I m quite sceptical about this, its hard to believe any country would want a nuclear war and we will see any in the near future. Here is why:
It s quite interesting to see the behavior of US & European adversaries in recent times. Most importantly the new axis of Moscow & China. "Shanghai Cooperation Organisation" Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - Wikipedia
Small scale wars with succesfull landgrabs in Georgia, Ukraine by Russia. Without any significant military response as a result. The same could be said for the Island grabs & sea grab of China from multiple neighbour countries, just a small enough bit into another country to not escalate into a full scale war.
"The Logic of Fait Accompli
States that seek to expand their territories have three basic options: (i) brute force, (ii) coercion, or (iii) fait accompli. In a brute force scenario, the aggressor first defeats the target state on the battlefield and then makes territorial demands. Defeated militarily, the target state has no choice but to acquiesce to the victor’s demands. Alternatively, the aggressor could coerce the target to give up some of its territories. Facing coercive pressures and in some cases, the looming threat of war, the target may decide that it would be better off acceding to the demands of the aggressor rather than risking escalation.
The problem with brute force is that it tends to be very costly in blood and treasure. Even the weakest victims would fight back if their survival is truly at stake. Hence a deliberately short war could quickly turn into an inextricable morass. This is why brute force may be the only option when the aggressor seeks to conquer another state’s entire territory but makes little sense in the pursuit of limited territorial goals.
Coercion is less costly than brute force, but its track record is rather dismal, especially when the coercive demand involves territory. Furthermore, by coercing the target, the aggressor inevitably reveals its intentions, thus giving an early warning to the target which may then engage in military preparations to blunt a possible first-strike advantage. In other words, coercion is an ineffective tool of territorial conquest that would also reduce the range of options available to the aggressor to achieve its territorial goal.
This is why many states have resorted to fait accompli, i.e. limited land grabs designed to minimize risks of escalation. A fait accompli allows the aggressor to unilaterally change the territorial status quo before the target could muster an effective response. This forces the target into a tough position as it must choose between two unappealing choices: (i) try to dislodge the invaders from the seized territory and risk escalation or (ii) accept the territorial loss. Every time an aggressor resorts to fait accompli, it is betting that the territorial loss for the target is small enough that it would rather give up than fight back and risk a larger conflict. This is why decisiveness and limited scale are intrinsic features of every fait accompli.
While any fait accompli only directly involves two states, it usually has significant implications for third parties. Russia’s annexation of Crimea is a territorial loss only for Ukraine, but the United States and other European countries are rightly concerned about the broader implications of Russia’s land grab. European leaders could be forgiven for believing that Crimea was just the first act and that Russia’s westward expansion would not stop in Ukraine. Even if they can be absolutely certain of Moscow’s limited territorial appetite, many states still have strong incentives to reverse Russia’s fait accompli because failing to do so could embolden countries that also seek territorial expansion ...."
see the full article in the link below
South China Sea: Deterring a Fait Accompli
It s quite interesting to see the behavior of US & European adversaries in recent times. Most importantly the new axis of Moscow & China. "Shanghai Cooperation Organisation" Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - Wikipedia
Small scale wars with succesfull landgrabs in Georgia, Ukraine by Russia. Without any significant military response as a result. The same could be said for the Island grabs & sea grab of China from multiple neighbour countries, just a small enough bit into another country to not escalate into a full scale war.
"The Logic of Fait Accompli
States that seek to expand their territories have three basic options: (i) brute force, (ii) coercion, or (iii) fait accompli. In a brute force scenario, the aggressor first defeats the target state on the battlefield and then makes territorial demands. Defeated militarily, the target state has no choice but to acquiesce to the victor’s demands. Alternatively, the aggressor could coerce the target to give up some of its territories. Facing coercive pressures and in some cases, the looming threat of war, the target may decide that it would be better off acceding to the demands of the aggressor rather than risking escalation.
The problem with brute force is that it tends to be very costly in blood and treasure. Even the weakest victims would fight back if their survival is truly at stake. Hence a deliberately short war could quickly turn into an inextricable morass. This is why brute force may be the only option when the aggressor seeks to conquer another state’s entire territory but makes little sense in the pursuit of limited territorial goals.
Coercion is less costly than brute force, but its track record is rather dismal, especially when the coercive demand involves territory. Furthermore, by coercing the target, the aggressor inevitably reveals its intentions, thus giving an early warning to the target which may then engage in military preparations to blunt a possible first-strike advantage. In other words, coercion is an ineffective tool of territorial conquest that would also reduce the range of options available to the aggressor to achieve its territorial goal.
This is why many states have resorted to fait accompli, i.e. limited land grabs designed to minimize risks of escalation. A fait accompli allows the aggressor to unilaterally change the territorial status quo before the target could muster an effective response. This forces the target into a tough position as it must choose between two unappealing choices: (i) try to dislodge the invaders from the seized territory and risk escalation or (ii) accept the territorial loss. Every time an aggressor resorts to fait accompli, it is betting that the territorial loss for the target is small enough that it would rather give up than fight back and risk a larger conflict. This is why decisiveness and limited scale are intrinsic features of every fait accompli.
While any fait accompli only directly involves two states, it usually has significant implications for third parties. Russia’s annexation of Crimea is a territorial loss only for Ukraine, but the United States and other European countries are rightly concerned about the broader implications of Russia’s land grab. European leaders could be forgiven for believing that Crimea was just the first act and that Russia’s westward expansion would not stop in Ukraine. Even if they can be absolutely certain of Moscow’s limited territorial appetite, many states still have strong incentives to reverse Russia’s fait accompli because failing to do so could embolden countries that also seek territorial expansion ...."
see the full article in the link below
South China Sea: Deterring a Fait Accompli
