Annie
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- Nov 22, 2003
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This may work, not losing perspective of Iran's goals, lots of links at site:
http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1536
http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1536
11/18/2006
To achieve what only a superpower can
Filed under:
* General
site admin @ 1:37 pm
Jeremy Greenstock in todays Washington Post:
Excerpt one:
the United States and Britain have never attempted a truly comprehensive policy on Iraq. Unless the United States and its principal allies construct an approach that brings all available resources to bear to establish stability, there will be no point in staying in the country when all objective observers see a continuing downward spiral.
Thats a call for unified action.
Excerpt two:
The Iraqi army must be asked to take on an increasing amount of the burden, with the coalition taking the calculated chance of equipping it more adequately. The army is the security institution with the highest status in the eyes of the population as a whole and the only one that is not largely corrupted and penetrated. Testing the Iraqi army next year, with the coalition stepping back off the streets and perhaps reducing its numbers, is a gamble that has to be taken. If it fails, and the coalition leaves, a national army will be unlikely to survive.
Thats been a goal since 2004, to have the Iraqi Army assume responsibility for security.
Excerpt three:
Rich in hydrocarbons as Iraq is, economic support from outside remains vital. The priority has to be jobs and the energy infrastructure. Oil is the glue that can hold the Iraqi state together. The effective generation of power can convince the people that better days are possible. Creating a national oil company that explicitly works for the interests of the people, and not for an elite or a region or a sect, could be a powerful and positive symbol. Enough people must have a stake in protecting the production platforms, the pipelines, the refineries and the power stations to make sabotage and disruption far more difficult. International investment in this outcome should be linked with internal political progress, but it must now include a far broader range of contributors than has so far been the case.
How do we link all these things? None will work unless they all do. The controlled collapse of Iraq into three separate and autonomous regions is not a realistic alternative, however much it seems to appeal as an escape route
Again, not new.
But if re-casting and re-stating helps nudge sober and responsible politicians into a war-fighting consensus, good.
Excerpt four:
Iran fights a rearguard action. Irans Isamlic revolution flopped and everyone knows it. The mullahs think a nuclear bomb will save them, at least for a little while. They also believe continued regional troublemaking buys time. But is time really on the mullahs side? The demographics of discontent say Nay.
Inviting Iran to a conference and allowing the mullahs to make fools of themselves might be a useful ploy. Giving them any determinative capacity is a mistake, but I dont think thats what Greenstock is suggesting. I think this quote indicates he anticipates a lot of theater: Countries in the region must be allowed to present their own agendas, even if they do not convince others for long. Heh.
Do read the entire essay. Greenstock was the UKs special envoy to Iraq from 2003-2004.
Also read this for background.