Qball
Corner Pocket
Hey.
I've actually done one these lists in 2016 and 2020 both claiming I thought Trump would win. To be clear, I think I was right both time. Yes, I'm one of "those people" who think the 2020 election was stolen and January 6th was a False Flag, but either way, it's in the past.
Here's why I think Trump will win the election this year.
1. People like and have a begrudging respect for Trump.
In my previous two lists, I started them both by arguing that the entire election has been about Trump. While that mostly still applies this year, the truth is, I get the feeling people...kinda like Trump, or a minimum respect him. His tenacity, his brazenness, his perseverance, his humor and wit, I think have won a lot of people over. The barbs thrown at him seem less sharp, but more desperate, less precise. I've been a little floored by how many people openly support Trump now, and I'm not talking about MAGA fanboys who feel he can do no wrong. I think the culmination of the two assassination attempts, the neverending lawfare to get him thrown in prison, the constant whining about every thing the man says and does, has wound up producing the opposite effect.
2. Two key voting blocs will have a problem with Kamala.
Here's another holdover. I think it's been noticeable that Democrats' grasp with Black voters, specifically Black men, has been slipping. They don't like Kamala; they like her less than they liked Joe. And, I keep saying this but it's true: Hispanic voters, especially Hispanic men, do not like the idea of a woman being in charge. They're traditional in their mindset. Kamala's non-traditional in more ways than one. I don't think she's endeared herself to either group. This might be why she struggles winning over the swing state voters...because the typical Democrats in those states are lukewarm on her.
3. They tagged Kamala in too late in the game.
People had misgivings about Joe's health and mental capacity for governing back in 2020. The media gamely ran interference and covered for him until he gave that abysmal debate performance, then he begrudgingly stepped down. To be fair to Kamala, she should've had more than 3-4 months to run. She should've had at least a year build her own campaign and get her own message and vision out to the world. Instead, she's left taking the baton from Joe and trying to finish the race. I don't even know if Joe was going to win before he flamed out; Kamala stepping up to be his replacement probably isn't going to inspire voters he lost.
4. There's a growing backlash against women in this country that people don't want to talk about.
I feel like this started during the 2016 election and it's reached, or is reaching, its zenith. But there's this growing discontentment and low-flow resentment for women that I think people are feeling but don't entirely feel comfortable talking about. I think since 2020 men have excused themselves from culture and they're starting to express themselves more openly about how they're tired of Modern Women. They're tired of the preachiness; they're tired of the sanctimony; they're tired of the double standards; they're tired of the special treatment. A lot of the lack of men in the workforce is because so many companies prioritize promoting women and putting them in Middle Management and a lot of men are quite frankly over that. I know this is going to come off majorly sexist and while that's not my intent for saying it, I do think there's a lot of simmering resentment for women. Kamala somewhat exemplifies this Modern Woman ideal: a childless, big city liberal Girl Boss who largely built her career on sleeping with an older, well-connected man -- and in the shadow of MeToo more women should openly find this problematic -- and being a Token/Diversity Hire (as Biden shamelessly admitted he picked Kamala due to her race).
5. Trump Derangement Syndrome is cool and all but it don't pay the bills.
Inflation is kicking everybody's ass. Gas prices are high, food prices are high, everything is more expensive. You have young people graduating college who can't even afford a one bedroom apartment despite having a "real job" and a college degree. I think reality is kicking people in the teeth to where doing they're looking for answers and solutions from the people in power, and what have Democrats done to alleviate this? There's a school of thought that many people don't actually believe anything can be done to fix these problems so if they must suffer, they would rather suffer under someone they like, but if people are properly motivated and moved by our economy, I think this will hurt Kamala and definitely the down ticket Democrats. The media wants to keep distracting people from the realities of the economy by documenting every calumny from Trump and I think people are basically over it.
6. Democrats can't keep getting away with stealing elections without hurting their brand in the long-term.
I don't know what else to tell you [shrugs]. Eventually y'all have to let the Republicans win one. Had they simply sat back and let Trump get re-elected in 2020, we'd be almost done caring about him a viable candidate and political figure. But they had to go all in on making sure he didn't get re-elected, and then making sure Republicans' mid-term prospects were blunted, that they have just created a stronger, more viable candidate in Trump. If he loses, Democrats are risking a lame-duck candidate in Kamala and the possibility of a Republican supermajority all because they can't admit people actually like Donald Trump despite all the efforts to make him look like the worst person ever. And there's the lingering stench of hypocrisy. We saw Hillary and Joe Biden get a pass for mishandling classified documents but we're supposed to hope they catch Trump for having them and he was the President? We want Trump to be sent to prison because he paid off Stormy Daniels, a "crime" nobody else has been charged and convicted of? Or because he wanted all the voters counted properly in GA? It just looks like what it is: a desperate attempt to make Trump so thoroughly unlikable that nobody will care if you simply cheat because he's such an awful person so who cares.
Lastly, a prediction: if Trump wins, it's going to be quite handily and noticed quite early. That's if, they don't find a way to steal it for Kamala.
I've actually done one these lists in 2016 and 2020 both claiming I thought Trump would win. To be clear, I think I was right both time. Yes, I'm one of "those people" who think the 2020 election was stolen and January 6th was a False Flag, but either way, it's in the past.
Here's why I think Trump will win the election this year.
1. People like and have a begrudging respect for Trump.
In my previous two lists, I started them both by arguing that the entire election has been about Trump. While that mostly still applies this year, the truth is, I get the feeling people...kinda like Trump, or a minimum respect him. His tenacity, his brazenness, his perseverance, his humor and wit, I think have won a lot of people over. The barbs thrown at him seem less sharp, but more desperate, less precise. I've been a little floored by how many people openly support Trump now, and I'm not talking about MAGA fanboys who feel he can do no wrong. I think the culmination of the two assassination attempts, the neverending lawfare to get him thrown in prison, the constant whining about every thing the man says and does, has wound up producing the opposite effect.
2. Two key voting blocs will have a problem with Kamala.
Here's another holdover. I think it's been noticeable that Democrats' grasp with Black voters, specifically Black men, has been slipping. They don't like Kamala; they like her less than they liked Joe. And, I keep saying this but it's true: Hispanic voters, especially Hispanic men, do not like the idea of a woman being in charge. They're traditional in their mindset. Kamala's non-traditional in more ways than one. I don't think she's endeared herself to either group. This might be why she struggles winning over the swing state voters...because the typical Democrats in those states are lukewarm on her.
3. They tagged Kamala in too late in the game.
People had misgivings about Joe's health and mental capacity for governing back in 2020. The media gamely ran interference and covered for him until he gave that abysmal debate performance, then he begrudgingly stepped down. To be fair to Kamala, she should've had more than 3-4 months to run. She should've had at least a year build her own campaign and get her own message and vision out to the world. Instead, she's left taking the baton from Joe and trying to finish the race. I don't even know if Joe was going to win before he flamed out; Kamala stepping up to be his replacement probably isn't going to inspire voters he lost.
4. There's a growing backlash against women in this country that people don't want to talk about.
I feel like this started during the 2016 election and it's reached, or is reaching, its zenith. But there's this growing discontentment and low-flow resentment for women that I think people are feeling but don't entirely feel comfortable talking about. I think since 2020 men have excused themselves from culture and they're starting to express themselves more openly about how they're tired of Modern Women. They're tired of the preachiness; they're tired of the sanctimony; they're tired of the double standards; they're tired of the special treatment. A lot of the lack of men in the workforce is because so many companies prioritize promoting women and putting them in Middle Management and a lot of men are quite frankly over that. I know this is going to come off majorly sexist and while that's not my intent for saying it, I do think there's a lot of simmering resentment for women. Kamala somewhat exemplifies this Modern Woman ideal: a childless, big city liberal Girl Boss who largely built her career on sleeping with an older, well-connected man -- and in the shadow of MeToo more women should openly find this problematic -- and being a Token/Diversity Hire (as Biden shamelessly admitted he picked Kamala due to her race).
5. Trump Derangement Syndrome is cool and all but it don't pay the bills.
Inflation is kicking everybody's ass. Gas prices are high, food prices are high, everything is more expensive. You have young people graduating college who can't even afford a one bedroom apartment despite having a "real job" and a college degree. I think reality is kicking people in the teeth to where doing they're looking for answers and solutions from the people in power, and what have Democrats done to alleviate this? There's a school of thought that many people don't actually believe anything can be done to fix these problems so if they must suffer, they would rather suffer under someone they like, but if people are properly motivated and moved by our economy, I think this will hurt Kamala and definitely the down ticket Democrats. The media wants to keep distracting people from the realities of the economy by documenting every calumny from Trump and I think people are basically over it.
6. Democrats can't keep getting away with stealing elections without hurting their brand in the long-term.
I don't know what else to tell you [shrugs]. Eventually y'all have to let the Republicans win one. Had they simply sat back and let Trump get re-elected in 2020, we'd be almost done caring about him a viable candidate and political figure. But they had to go all in on making sure he didn't get re-elected, and then making sure Republicans' mid-term prospects were blunted, that they have just created a stronger, more viable candidate in Trump. If he loses, Democrats are risking a lame-duck candidate in Kamala and the possibility of a Republican supermajority all because they can't admit people actually like Donald Trump despite all the efforts to make him look like the worst person ever. And there's the lingering stench of hypocrisy. We saw Hillary and Joe Biden get a pass for mishandling classified documents but we're supposed to hope they catch Trump for having them and he was the President? We want Trump to be sent to prison because he paid off Stormy Daniels, a "crime" nobody else has been charged and convicted of? Or because he wanted all the voters counted properly in GA? It just looks like what it is: a desperate attempt to make Trump so thoroughly unlikable that nobody will care if you simply cheat because he's such an awful person so who cares.
Lastly, a prediction: if Trump wins, it's going to be quite handily and noticed quite early. That's if, they don't find a way to steal it for Kamala.
