Meh I don't feel like getting into a debate on mathematical and statistical values so believe as you wish here. I'm just mention the following.
Yes and no. The new model adopted in 2015 does not have enough data to properly adjust seasonally until after the fact. I don't fault them or anything, but the reality is that a current read of seasonally adjusted short term (aka a month or two span) is faulty. They can be more accurate in hindsight. This is a growing pains flaw that attempts to specifically note monthly seasonality (holidays) and it will clear itself up when we have enough accurate data based on the 'new' calculation methods. (5 years they say) Presently, however, during short term bubbles the system uses a mix of old and new guestimation methods that is the best they can manage with a lack of historic data on the specific bubbles (because in the past we didn't account for those things.)
That is to say, this read at this time is probably off 0.25 to 0.5%
So, yes they try to adjust it, but no it's not adjusted on 'real' data (aka the data being used to adjust it is a best guess estimate and thus inherently flawed)
--
"BLS uses indirect seasonal adjustment for most of the major labor force aggregates. Besides
retaining, so far as possible, the essential accounting relationships, the indirect approach is
needed because many of the aggregates include components having different seasonal and trend
characteristics that sometimes require different modes of adjustment.
Examples of indirectly seasonally adjusted series are the levels of total unemployment,
employment, and the civilian labor force, as well as the unemployment rate for all civilian
workers. These series are produced by the aggregation of some or all of the seasonally adjusted
series for the eight major civilian labor force components. The seasonally adjusted level of total
unemployment is the sum of the seasonally adjusted levels of unemployment for four age-sex
groups: men 16 to 19 years, women 16 to 19 years, men 20 years and over, and women 20 years
and over. Likewise, seasonally adjusted civilian employment is the sum of employment in all
industries for the same four age-sex groups. The seasonally adjusted civilian labor force is the
sum of all eight components. The seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate is computed as
the ratio of the total seasonally adjusted unemployment level to the total seasonally adjusted
civilian labor force (expressed as a percentage).
A problem with producing seasonally adjusted estimates for a series by aggregation is that
seasonal adjustment factors cannot be directly computed for that series. Implicit seasonal
adjustment factors, however, can be calculated after the fact by taking the ratio of the unadjusted
aggregate to the seasonally adjusted aggregate or, for additive implicit factors, the difference
between those two aggregates.
-
http://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-adjustment-methodology-2016.pdf
