You're probably reading more into this than is there.
I grew up in that district, and I actually went to Grammar School with Dan Lipinski's sister.
Here's why Dan lost. First, Covid-19 depressed the older vote.
But the bigger problem wasn't that Dan was too moderate, the problem was that he's kind of a nutty Catholic who thinks women shouldn't control their own bodies.
the other big problem he has is the map of the third district and how it's changed over the years. It used to be that most of it was in Chicago. This is how his Dad, a loyal Machine Alderman to the First Mayor Daley, got the job. (Bill is still the Ward Committeeman for the 23rd Ward)
Over the years, as the City became less and less White, they added more and more Suburban areas to the District, to the point where it's only a little tiny sliver of Chicago. In order to maintain 3 black districts and one Hispanic district, they've pretty much had to divide Chicago up between those four districts.
Now here in lies the problem. Most minorities vote Democratic because the Republican Party is as racist as shit. They actually skew more conservative than the Democratic Party in the main. This is why Biden is winning right now.
Most white people vote Republican, but those of us who DO vote Democratic tend to skew more liberal than the party in the main. It's why Bernie's supporters are overwhelmingly white.
So this is why Danny was in a weak position to start with. Add on his Crazy positions on abortion, plus the fact that the district was just HANDED to him. (His father won the primary in 2004 and then just handed him the nomination.)
That and the GOP has never really challenged Danny or his Dad for something like 40 years, Danny really never developed good campaigning chops. He just counted on the Machine to carry him over, again.
It didn't this time.
