04/2015 WAPO/ABC poll: Hillary Clinton (D) sweeping with double-digit margins against GOPers

[Mertex]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

 

[Manonthestreet]

Party scaring the country right now is dems.....several stories from big lib sites incredulous about current events with Iran........more inconvenient facts.....

I imagine Faux News is really revving frivolous stories at alarming speed........most will turn out to be duds.

Not Fox, try Salon and such

 

[Hossfly]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

If Hildebeast is nominated and elected President, I will go to Germany, tear up my passport and become an illegal alien. How 'bout them beans?

 

[Roadrunner]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Deja vu' all over again!

 

[Roadrunner]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

If Hildebeast is nominated and elected President, I will go to Germany, tear up my passport and become an illegal alien. How 'bout them beans?

I aim to head to Cuba.

Die warm.

 

[Mertex]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

If Hildebeast is nominated and elected President, I will go to Germany, tear up my passport and become an illegal alien. How 'bout them beans?

I'm going to bookmark this post..........

 

[Mertex]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

If Hildebeast is nominated and elected President, I will go to Germany, tear up my passport and become an illegal alien. How 'bout them beans?

I aim to head to Cuba.

Die warm.

Can't wait.......

 

[Roadrunner]

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

If Hildebeast is nominated and elected President, I will go to Germany, tear up my passport and become an illegal alien. How 'bout them beans?

I aim to head to Cuba.

Die warm.

Can't wait.......

I have a nephew in Cuba now, making plans for guided fishing tours when the Americans come.

If Hillary wins, I may stay here and just start shooting cats to vent.

 

[Hossfly]

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

If Hildebeast is nominated and elected President, I will go to Germany, tear up my passport and become an illegal alien. How 'bout them beans?

I aim to head to Cuba.

Die warm.

Can't wait.......

I have a nephew in Cuba now, making plans for guided fishing tours when the Americans come.

If Hillary wins, I may stay here and just start shooting cats to vent.

Dimocats?

 

[Mertex]

Ha Ha. Another death spiral.

Clinton's ass is dropping, figuratively too:

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll is the latest to show Clinton's numbers continuing their steady erosion since she stepped down as secretary of state. The new poll has her favorable rating at a pedestrian 49 percent, compared to 46 percent unfavorable. It's the first time her favorable rating has dropped below 50 percent since April 2008, when she conceded the Democratic nomination for president to Barack Obama.

Much of Clinton's decline, predictably, is because Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have begun to sour on her as she has re-entered the political arena. While 31 percent of Republicans last year liked Clinton, just 12 percent do so today.

But there is also evidence of less-partisan voters straying from Clinton. Among Democratic-leaning independents, 84 percent approved of Clinton last year. Now, that number is 65 percent.

Hillary Clinton s favorable rating drops below 50 percent. And yet she still leads big. - The Washington Post

Ha,ha....did you miss the last 5 words in your link? "And yet she still leads big" - not a small thing.

 

[Mertex]

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

If Hildebeast is nominated and elected President, I will go to Germany, tear up my passport and become an illegal alien. How 'bout them beans?

I aim to head to Cuba.

Die warm.

Can't wait.......

I have a nephew in Cuba now, making plans for guided fishing tours when the Americans come.

If Hillary wins, I may stay here and just start shooting cats to vent.

Dimocats?

Prolly........my cats are not afraid of him.

 

[Nyvin]

Clinton's ass is dropping, figuratively too:

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll is the latest to show Clinton's numbers continuing their steady erosion since she stepped down as secretary of state. The new poll has her favorable rating at a pedestrian 49 percent, compared to 46 percent unfavorable. It's the first time her favorable rating has dropped below 50 percent since April 2008, when she conceded the Democratic nomination for president to Barack Obama.

Much of Clinton's decline, predictably, is because Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have begun to sour on her as she has re-entered the political arena. While 31 percent of Republicans last year liked Clinton, just 12 percent do so today.

But there is also evidence of less-partisan voters straying from Clinton. Among Democratic-leaning independents, 84 percent approved of Clinton last year. Now, that number is 65 percent.

Hillary Clinton s favorable rating drops below 50 percent. And yet she still leads big. - The Washington Post

Of course her approval isn't going to stay in the mid 60's now that she's viewed more as a politician rather than a government official. If she maintained 65% approval all the way to the election we might as well call the election right now. Why do you think her low point was right at the end of her last election? It was the last time the public saw her as a politician. That's very, very normal.

 

[HenryBHough]

Dimocats?

That was last week.

Now?

Demmunists.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

But you're not man enough to bet on it. OK

 

[Mertex]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

But you're not man enough to bet on it. OK

Yes, idiot, I'm not a man......(you conservatives make bets and then renege, so why would I even trust you, ijit?)

 

[Statistikhengst]

View attachment 38901

Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post

This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.

1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5


I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.

The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.

Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):

Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)

Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)

Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)

Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)


In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).

So, let's review the margins:

Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)

According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.

Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%


Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:

1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)

That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.

So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.

Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.

Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.

This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.

And in Democratic nomination polling:

Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55


More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.

FYI and FYD.

-Stat

Stat, you're going to get in trouble for causing many heart attacks on the right.........what could she possible be accused of that would make Libruls hate her? Hmmmmm

When she's not the nominee do you promise to never post here again?

That won't happen....and I'm going to make sure and rub your nose in it......how's that?

But you're not man enough to bet on it. OK

Yes, idiot, I'm not a man......(you conservatives make bets and then renege, so why would I even trust you, ijit?)

It could be the worms in their brains that cause them to forget things.


It should be added that a FOX poll also came out showing a statistical tie between Bush and Clinton since I put out this thread....

Yes, the same Fox poll that showed a tie in it's final national poll in 2012, but Obama won by 4 points! Gee, Fox was only off by 4 points.

And the final Fox poll of Virginia in 2012 showed Romney +2, and yet, Obama won by +4 in the Old Dominion. Gee, Fox was only off by 6 points!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Why even bother having an "Election", it's Hillary's turn!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Why even bother having an "Election", it's Hillary's turn!

Heck no! I wanna watch the electoral map turn very, very blue.



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