Are you really this stupid?
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Yet ANOTHER AGW k00ks prediction fAiL
- Thread starter skookerasbil
- Start date
Are you really this stupid?
- May 20, 2009
- 144,507
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Crick is just plain fucking nuts.
I don't have any other explanation
I don't have any other explanation
- May 20, 2009
- 144,507
- 66,907
- 2,330
Did you look at any of the 15 links I provided to data regarding the Pacific hurricane seasons? Do hurricanes only occur off the coast of Florida? Did the prediction that skooks is attempting to refute say that hurricanes striking Florida will increase in number and intensity? The dominant ENSO pattern for the last 15 years has been one to maintain strong easterly winds in the Gulf and Florida and create extensive shear aloft. The pattern is precisely what is needed to minimize storm strength in the western Caribbean and prevent tropical storms from striking the Florida coast. The lack of storms striking Florida has nothing to do with any decrease in global warming.
Florida =/= Pacific Ocean
Are you really this stupid?
You're insane, but then again most Cult member do have some malfunction, a need to fit in maybe?
We're talking about Florida
and you post about the Pacific Ocean, then you call me stupid?
- Thread starter
- #24
Bottom line?
Gore predicted all kinds of fucked up weather bomb thrower shit and much of it fall flat on its face = the AGW k00ks own it.
The fucking k00ks......they are always saying "Weather doesn't = climate".....then make these spectacular predictions about weather that fuck up and then go back to the same stooped theme "Weather doesn't = climate".
Like the thread I posted up last week........research shows > SOCIALISTS WILL LIE/CHEAT TO MEET THEIR OBJECTIVES. All AGW k00ks are hard core socialists = they lie and cheat and lie and cheat again.
There are volumes of proof.
Gore predicted all kinds of fucked up weather bomb thrower shit and much of it fall flat on its face = the AGW k00ks own it.
The fucking k00ks......they are always saying "Weather doesn't = climate".....then make these spectacular predictions about weather that fuck up and then go back to the same stooped theme "Weather doesn't = climate".
Like the thread I posted up last week........research shows > SOCIALISTS WILL LIE/CHEAT TO MEET THEIR OBJECTIVES. All AGW k00ks are hard core socialists = they lie and cheat and lie and cheat again.
There are volumes of proof.
- Apr 1, 2011
- 170,026
- 47,214
- 2,180
I pointed out you're a moron and it was a phony prediction.
In response, you demand I prove your phony prediction.
That kind of confirms your moron status.
Global Warming To Bring Stronger Hurricanes, Scientists Predict
RealClimate: Hurricanes and Global Warming – Is There a Connection?
Hurricane forecast models (the same ones that were used to predict Katrinas path) indicate a tendency for more intense (but not overall more frequent) hurricanes when they are run for climate change scenarios (Fig. 1). - See more at: RealClimate: Hurricanes and Global Warming – Is There a Connection?
You were saying?
o It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet properly modeled (e.g., aerosol effects).
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario).
o This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
o There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the numbers of very intense hurricanes in some basins—an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity.
o This increase in intense storm numbers is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical storms.
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, with a model-projected increase of about 20% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario).
o This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
o There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the numbers of very intense hurricanes in some basins—an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity.
o This increase in intense storm numbers is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical storms.
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, with a model-projected increase of about 20% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
The text that accompanied your graph Paddy ol' boy.
Newest Estimate of Global Warming & Hurricanes
The most recent data indicate (conservatively) that global warming has increased hurricane destructiveness more than 45% in recent years. The data shown here relate hurricane strength to warmer waters but not directly to global warming. They show that total hurricane energy is very sensitive to warmer water temperatures. This sensitivity is greater than was expected. If sea surface temperature has increased due to global warming, as is generally believed, there is no escaping the fact that global warming has contributed to the energy of recent hurricanes.
For political reasons, NOAA admits that warmer waters have been the main factor in increased hurricane energy, but issues statements (read translation) designed to make the public believe there is no connection to global warming, although the evidence points in the opposite direction.
Data from Dr. Kerry Emanuel have been updated since the publication of his letter in Nature. Statistical analysis by Dr. Stoft of zFacts.com.
Destructiveness Increases Quickly with Sea Temperature
The graph above shows the first statistical estimate of the impact of global warming on Atlantic hurricanes in recent years. The average expected effect is an increase in hurricane intensity for the years 2002-2004 (averaged in the point labeled "2003") of 96%. That is, without global warming, the average intensity of hurricanes in those years would be expected to be about half what we experienced.
The points in the graph are annual average sea surface temperatures and a hurricane energy indices for the years 1945-2003. The points are those used in the graph (figure 1 - North Atlantic) published by Dr. Emanuel in Nature, August 2005, updated with a bias correction suggested by Chris Landsea, head of NOAA's Hurricane Reanalysis Project.
The red curve shows the best-fit relationship between annual sea surface temperatures and total annual hurricane energy. It measures what is expected on average given a particular sea surface temperature. This curve does not depend on what caused the sea temperatures—it is not based on any assumption of global warming. But, because sea surface temperatures have increased (on average) as a result of global warming, and are expected to increase further (again, on average), the curve can be used to estimate increases in hurricane intensity (again, on average).
For example, the "2003" (2002-2004 average) sea surface temperature was approximately 27.7 degrees Centigrade. North Atlantic sea temperatures have risen by 0.5° C due to long-term global warming—this is the consensus estimate for the global increase in sea surface temperatures since the 1800s. Thus, without global warming the 2002-2004 average temperature would be expected to be 0.5 degrees C less—approximately 27.2 degrees C. Over that range (indicated by the vertical lines on the chart) the red curve shows an increase in hurricane energy (and destructiveness) from 0.97 to 1.90. That's a 96% increase that can be attributed to the effects of global warming.
This is an average prediction. Actual yearly outcomes varied, and we will never know precisely what would have happened without global warming. Additional uncertainties are introduced by the "margin of error" in fitting the curve (since, like a voter survey, it is based on a limited sample) and by the "margin of error" that can be attributed to the 0.5 degree C estimate of global warming to date.
How Accurate is the Trend Line?
A statistical test shows the lower "Rejected Trend" is 95% sure to be too low, and even it would indicate a 45% increase in hurricane destructiveness.
The data points clearly rise from left to right, so there can be no doubt the best fitting trend line slopes up. But perhaps the Atlantic just had bad hurricane luck during warm years and good hurricane luck during cooler years, and all the trend line is picking up is this luck? The point of statistics is to tell us how much to trust our estimates and what is the chance that the things we see are just due to luck.
The lower line was choosen to be exactly half as steep as the actual trend line. It was tested statistically with an "F-test" which found less than a 5% chance that bad luck has fooled us and things are really as good as the lower trend line.
If global warming has warmed the Atlantic just 0.5° C, there is a 95% chance that it has increased average annual hurricane destructiveness by more than 45% (Half a degree C is less than 1 degree Farenheit.)
Newest Estimate of Global Warming & Hurricanes
The most recent data indicate (conservatively) that global warming has increased hurricane destructiveness more than 45% in recent years. The data shown here relate hurricane strength to warmer waters but not directly to global warming. They show that total hurricane energy is very sensitive to warmer water temperatures. This sensitivity is greater than was expected. If sea surface temperature has increased due to global warming, as is generally believed, there is no escaping the fact that global warming has contributed to the energy of recent hurricanes.
For political reasons, NOAA admits that warmer waters have been the main factor in increased hurricane energy, but issues statements (read translation) designed to make the public believe there is no connection to global warming, although the evidence points in the opposite direction.
Data from Dr. Kerry Emanuel have been updated since the publication of his letter in Nature. Statistical analysis by Dr. Stoft of zFacts.com.
Destructiveness Increases Quickly with Sea Temperature
The graph above shows the first statistical estimate of the impact of global warming on Atlantic hurricanes in recent years. The average expected effect is an increase in hurricane intensity for the years 2002-2004 (averaged in the point labeled "2003") of 96%. That is, without global warming, the average intensity of hurricanes in those years would be expected to be about half what we experienced.
The points in the graph are annual average sea surface temperatures and a hurricane energy indices for the years 1945-2003. The points are those used in the graph (figure 1 - North Atlantic) published by Dr. Emanuel in Nature, August 2005, updated with a bias correction suggested by Chris Landsea, head of NOAA's Hurricane Reanalysis Project.
The red curve shows the best-fit relationship between annual sea surface temperatures and total annual hurricane energy. It measures what is expected on average given a particular sea surface temperature. This curve does not depend on what caused the sea temperatures—it is not based on any assumption of global warming. But, because sea surface temperatures have increased (on average) as a result of global warming, and are expected to increase further (again, on average), the curve can be used to estimate increases in hurricane intensity (again, on average).
For example, the "2003" (2002-2004 average) sea surface temperature was approximately 27.7 degrees Centigrade. North Atlantic sea temperatures have risen by 0.5° C due to long-term global warming—this is the consensus estimate for the global increase in sea surface temperatures since the 1800s. Thus, without global warming the 2002-2004 average temperature would be expected to be 0.5 degrees C less—approximately 27.2 degrees C. Over that range (indicated by the vertical lines on the chart) the red curve shows an increase in hurricane energy (and destructiveness) from 0.97 to 1.90. That's a 96% increase that can be attributed to the effects of global warming.
This is an average prediction. Actual yearly outcomes varied, and we will never know precisely what would have happened without global warming. Additional uncertainties are introduced by the "margin of error" in fitting the curve (since, like a voter survey, it is based on a limited sample) and by the "margin of error" that can be attributed to the 0.5 degree C estimate of global warming to date.
How Accurate is the Trend Line?
A statistical test shows the lower "Rejected Trend" is 95% sure to be too low, and even it would indicate a 45% increase in hurricane destructiveness.
The data points clearly rise from left to right, so there can be no doubt the best fitting trend line slopes up. But perhaps the Atlantic just had bad hurricane luck during warm years and good hurricane luck during cooler years, and all the trend line is picking up is this luck? The point of statistics is to tell us how much to trust our estimates and what is the chance that the things we see are just due to luck.
The lower line was choosen to be exactly half as steep as the actual trend line. It was tested statistically with an "F-test" which found less than a 5% chance that bad luck has fooled us and things are really as good as the lower trend line.
If global warming has warmed the Atlantic just 0.5° C, there is a 95% chance that it has increased average annual hurricane destructiveness by more than 45% (Half a degree C is less than 1 degree Farenheit.)
- Apr 1, 2011
- 170,026
- 47,214
- 2,180
The text that accompanied your graph Paddy ol' boy.
Newest Estimate of Global Warming & Hurricanes
The most recent data indicate (conservatively) that global warming has increased hurricane destructiveness more than 45% in recent years. The data shown here relate hurricane strength to warmer waters but not directly to global warming. They show that total hurricane energy is very sensitive to warmer water temperatures. This sensitivity is greater than was expected. If sea surface temperature has increased due to global warming, as is generally believed, there is no escaping the fact that global warming has contributed to the energy of recent hurricanes.
For political reasons, NOAA admits that warmer waters have been the main factor in increased hurricane energy, but issues statements (read translation) designed to make the public believe there is no connection to global warming, although the evidence points in the opposite direction.
Data from Dr. Kerry Emanuel have been updated since the publication of his letter in Nature. Statistical analysis by Dr. Stoft of zFacts.com.
Destructiveness Increases Quickly with Sea Temperature
The graph above shows the first statistical estimate of the impact of global warming on Atlantic hurricanes in recent years. The average expected effect is an increase in hurricane intensity for the years 2002-2004 (averaged in the point labeled "2003") of 96%. That is, without global warming, the average intensity of hurricanes in those years would be expected to be about half what we experienced.
The points in the graph are annual average sea surface temperatures and a hurricane energy indices for the years 1945-2003. The points are those used in the graph (figure 1 - North Atlantic) published by Dr. Emanuel in Nature, August 2005, updated with a bias correction suggested by Chris Landsea, head of NOAA's Hurricane Reanalysis Project.
The red curve shows the best-fit relationship between annual sea surface temperatures and total annual hurricane energy. It measures what is expected on average given a particular sea surface temperature. This curve does not depend on what caused the sea temperaturesit is not based on any assumption of global warming. But, because sea surface temperatures have increased (on average) as a result of global warming, and are expected to increase further (again, on average), the curve can be used to estimate increases in hurricane intensity (again, on average).
For example, the "2003" (2002-2004 average) sea surface temperature was approximately 27.7 degrees Centigrade. North Atlantic sea temperatures have risen by 0.5° C due to long-term global warmingthis is the consensus estimate for the global increase in sea surface temperatures since the 1800s. Thus, without global warming the 2002-2004 average temperature would be expected to be 0.5 degrees C lessapproximately 27.2 degrees C. Over that range (indicated by the vertical lines on the chart) the red curve shows an increase in hurricane energy (and destructiveness) from 0.97 to 1.90. That's a 96% increase that can be attributed to the effects of global warming.
This is an average prediction. Actual yearly outcomes varied, and we will never know precisely what would have happened without global warming. Additional uncertainties are introduced by the "margin of error" in fitting the curve (since, like a voter survey, it is based on a limited sample) and by the "margin of error" that can be attributed to the 0.5 degree C estimate of global warming to date.
How Accurate is the Trend Line?
A statistical test shows the lower "Rejected Trend" is 95% sure to be too low, and even it would indicate a 45% increase in hurricane destructiveness.
The data points clearly rise from left to right, so there can be no doubt the best fitting trend line slopes up. But perhaps the Atlantic just had bad hurricane luck during warm years and good hurricane luck during cooler years, and all the trend line is picking up is this luck? The point of statistics is to tell us how much to trust our estimates and what is the chance that the things we see are just due to luck.
The lower line was choosen to be exactly half as steep as the actual trend line. It was tested statistically with an "F-test" which found less than a 5% chance that bad luck has fooled us and things are really as good as the lower trend line.
If global warming has warmed the Atlantic just 0.5° C, there is a 95% chance that it has increased average annual hurricane destructiveness by more than 45% (Half a degree C is less than 1 degree Farenheit.)
In other words, they predicted more severe hurricanes, or didn't you understand the big words?
- Apr 1, 2011
- 170,026
- 47,214
- 2,180
o It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet properly modeled (e.g., aerosol effects).
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario).
o This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
o There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the numbers of very intense hurricanes in some basinsan increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity.
o This increase in intense storm numbers is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical storms.
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, with a model-projected increase of about 20% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
So you found one guy who didn't go along with the herd predicting stronger hurricanes? What do you imagine that proves? You claimed no one predicted stronger hurricanes.
jon_berzerk
Platinum Member
- Mar 5, 2013
- 31,401
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- 1,130
o It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet properly modeled (e.g., aerosol effects).
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario).
o This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
o There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the numbers of very intense hurricanes in some basinsan increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity.
o This increase in intense storm numbers is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical storms.
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, with a model-projected increase of about 20% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
So you found one guy who didn't go along with the herd predicting stronger hurricanes? What do you imagine that proves? You claimed no one predicted stronger hurricanes.
the consensus of the global warmists at the time
was that there was "supposed to be stronger and more " hurricanes
pretty scary stuff
--LOL
o It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet properly modeled (e.g., aerosol effects).
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario).
o This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
o There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the numbers of very intense hurricanes in some basinsan increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity.
o This increase in intense storm numbers is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical storms.
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, with a model-projected increase of about 20% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
So you found one guy who didn't go along with the herd predicting stronger hurricanes? What do you imagine that proves? You claimed no one predicted stronger hurricanes.
the consensus of the global warmists at the time
was that there was "supposed to be stronger and more " hurricanes
pretty scary stuff
--LOL
The date on this is 20 December 2013. It has not failed.
After Katrina we were all told by the warmers that more storms and BIGGER storms would occur because of Global warming. It simply has not happened.
Also 15 years of warming was a trend up till 1998 but 15 years of no warming was a fluke according to the same people.
Scientists bent on claiming global warming is man made have ADMITTED lying about reports and predictions by stating that a lie to bring us to our senses is better then the truth if it lets us not do anything.
The claim is that CO2 is the cause of warming, yet with no warming for 15 years and increasing CO2 levels the warmers still claim it. No scientific test has been conducted to prove it and no repeatable independent research has confirmed it. So much for the scientific method.
Also 15 years of warming was a trend up till 1998 but 15 years of no warming was a fluke according to the same people.
Scientists bent on claiming global warming is man made have ADMITTED lying about reports and predictions by stating that a lie to bring us to our senses is better then the truth if it lets us not do anything.
The claim is that CO2 is the cause of warming, yet with no warming for 15 years and increasing CO2 levels the warmers still claim it. No scientific test has been conducted to prove it and no repeatable independent research has confirmed it. So much for the scientific method.
jon_berzerk
Platinum Member
- Mar 5, 2013
- 31,401
- 7,368
- 1,130
So you found one guy who didn't go along with the herd predicting stronger hurricanes? What do you imagine that proves? You claimed no one predicted stronger hurricanes.
the consensus of the global warmists at the time
was that there was "supposed to be stronger and more " hurricanes
pretty scary stuff
--LOL
The date on this is 20 December 2013. It has not failed.
yes because the last 15 years of predictions failed
NOAA's comments are not 15 years old. They were made with full awareness of the what global temperatures have been doing the last 15 years. Unlike you, they actually look even further back. And they look things besides surface temps. Things like the radiative imbalance at the ToA and the heat buildup in the deep ocean. Global warming has not stopped. It hasn't even slowed down.
Last edited:
- May 20, 2009
- 144,507
- 66,907
- 2,330
In order to drop the temperature .5 degrees, how much do we have to lower CO2NOAA's comments are not 15 years old. They were made with full awareness of the what global temperatures have been doing the last 15 years. Unlike you, they actually look even further back. And they look things besides surface temps. Things like the radiative imbalance at the ToA and the heat buildup in the deep ocean. Global warming has not stopped. It hasn't even slowed down.
jon_berzerk
Platinum Member
- Mar 5, 2013
- 31,401
- 7,368
- 1,130
NOAA's comments are not 15 years old. They were made with full awareness of the what global temperatures have been doing the last 15 years. Unlike you, they actually look even further back. And they look things besides surface temps. Things like the radiative imbalance at the ToA and the heat buildup in the deep ocean. Global warming has not stopped. It hasn't even slowed down.
yeah i know
blah blah blah
just another revision on the same ol scam
Oh my the AGW cult is at it again trying to link weather and climate, yet claim they are not the same on other threads.
Hurricanes are violent storms that began with the same principle as described above. Warm, moist ocean air encounters cooler air above and begins to rise through the cooler air because it is lighter. In this case, the temperature differential is great and the warm, moist air rises ever faster. As the water vapor condenses, it releases heat, which creates even a greater temperature differential. The coriolis effect of the earth's rotation causes the rising air mass to begin to rotate. When the internal winds become strong enough, air mass develops into a tropical storm and then a hurricane. It all depends on a strong temperature differential between the warm sea surface and a cold middle troposphere. While it is true the ocean surface warms with greenhouse warming, the mid-troposphere warms even faster, reducing the temperature gradient and the threat of a hurricane. While this is poorly understood, the number of hurricanes declined during the period when rapid warming was occurring during the last 30 years of the twentieth century. Research at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has shown that global warming increases wind shear, which also decreases the number and violence of Hurricanes.
Hurricanes are violent storms that began with the same principle as described above. Warm, moist ocean air encounters cooler air above and begins to rise through the cooler air because it is lighter. In this case, the temperature differential is great and the warm, moist air rises ever faster. As the water vapor condenses, it releases heat, which creates even a greater temperature differential. The coriolis effect of the earth's rotation causes the rising air mass to begin to rotate. When the internal winds become strong enough, air mass develops into a tropical storm and then a hurricane. It all depends on a strong temperature differential between the warm sea surface and a cold middle troposphere. While it is true the ocean surface warms with greenhouse warming, the mid-troposphere warms even faster, reducing the temperature gradient and the threat of a hurricane. While this is poorly understood, the number of hurricanes declined during the period when rapid warming was occurring during the last 30 years of the twentieth century. Research at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has shown that global warming increases wind shear, which also decreases the number and violence of Hurricanes.
- Thread starter
- #40
Yep.....the same NOAA who recently admitted to screwing with the temperature data!! No running from that although the k00ks will attempt to. Its well documented on this site!!
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