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- Aug 7, 2012
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As of October 25, 12:02PM EDT:
Obama: 294
Romney: 244
Meta-margin: Obama +1.60%
SEE LINK for the rest
He talks about how the meta-margin will not move all that much in the next 12 days which means Obama has a strong likelihood of winning.
Meta Margin Explained: (from a different article)
Obama: 294
Romney: 244
Meta-margin: Obama +1.60%
Princento Election Consortium: (go to link to see beginning of article)
1. President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. This is false hes a lot more likely to win. Look at the Princeton Election Consortiums EV histogram, which tabulates all 2.3 quadrillion possible combinations of states to give a clear snapshot of the race'. In a race today, President Obama would win with about 90% probability. The true probability is even higher, since the Meta-Analysis does not correct for individual pollster errors. We could but the political blowback from unskewing polls is too large.
2. There seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney. Ah, yes Ro-mentum! Bobo has taken the bait. He is probably looking at other aggregators, where for various reasons (q: do you want me to write about that sometime?) the real trends are harder to see. Lets roll the instant replay.
As you can see, Ro-mentum ended around October 11th, the date of the VP Biden-Ryan debate and reversed around October 16th, Debate #2. Now the median EV expectation is at a plateau around Obama 293 EV, Romney 245 EV. Viewed through the all-important Electoral College, Obama has a Popular Vote Meta-Margin lead of 1.5%. This measure is precise to within <0.5%, far better than any single poll. If anything, the race is starting to look a bit static. Of course, some change may well happen over the coming 12 days. Based on past races (see The Presidential Predictor sharpens, Sept. 29), here is how much movement we can expect.
SEE LINK for the rest
He talks about how the meta-margin will not move all that much in the next 12 days which means Obama has a strong likelihood of winning.
Meta Margin Explained: (from a different article)
Instead, the Meta-Analysis uses an overlooked method to calculate the probability of getting an exact number of electoral votes, covering all ways of reaching that number given the individual state win probabilities. This is a much easier problem it can be solved in less than a second. Here is a simple example.
Imagine that there are just two states. State 1 has EV1 electoral votes and your candidate has a probability P1 of winning that state; in state 2, EV2 electoral votes and a probability P2. Assume that EV1 and EV2 are not equal. Then the possible outcomes have the following probabilities:
EV1+EV2 electoral votes (i.e. winning both): P1 * P2. EV1 electoral votes: P1 * (1-P2). EV2 electoral votes: (1-P1) * P2. No electoral votes: (1-P1) * (1 P2).