1. The polls. Obama's maintained a consistent lead over Romney, on average, since - well, since they started keeping track of it it. RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama 2. The electoral college. If you consider WI and Penn blue states - which I think is fair - Obama is within a FL-sized margin of victory. In other words, he could lose NM, Nev, Iowa, NH, Ohio, Colorado, NC, and Virginia, and still win. Romney needs to to hit a hard eight. He needs to nearly sweep the swing states to win. 3. Romney's Etch-A-Sketch problem. Who is Romney besides a rich guy with good hair who really wants to be president? What does he stand for? 4. The economy. The economy's going to continue to improve and the one issue Republicans had pinned their hopes on will become less and less important. When Republicans are the only ones trash-talking the economy, people will see what they're doing for what it is.