Why I think 'Hottest Year Ever' claims are bogus

[Crick]

Estimate how Ian? You leave your reader to assume that such estimates must be unreasonable and are the source of all observed global warming. Is that what you actually believe?

when have I ever said that? there has been some global warming, especially compared to the Little Ice Age.

unreasonable? poorly reasoned is more like it. perhaps poorly implimented is even a better description.

all nearby stations are used to calibrate the 'expected' temperature, regardless of quality. poor quality stations run slightly hotter than good quality stations.

hypothetical station xxx is surrounded by a mixed bag of stations that average, say, a rise of 0.15C/decade. due to natural variability xxx would have, say, a 60/40 chance of rising a full degree C compared to losing a 1C. if the threshold for declaring a 'breakpoint' is 1C over or under the expected 0.15C increase then the spurious 1C cooling will be flagged while the 1C warming will not. once the adjustment is made xxx becomes part of the community of stations defining expectation. what is the likely direction of temperature trend of xxx after a large enough swing downward to be flagged? a return towards the middle which in this case would be even more warming after the correction for breakpoint. kriging in BEST is emphasized and indeed they show the most warming. preferentially raising cool temps raises the average and makes it even more likely that more cool temps will be adjusted.

Where do you get the idea that a miscalibrated temperature sensor is more likely to read high than low?

 

[Crick]

What do you think caused the surface warming to stop Frank? Do you buy what S Fred Singer is selling?

Whhaaaa? You're now admitting that the warming has stopped?

Can you not read?

 

[westwall]

What do you think caused the surface warming to stop Frank? Do you buy what S Fred Singer is selling?

Whhaaaa? You're now admitting that the warming has stopped?

Can you not read?

Quite well. You wrote..."What do you think caused the surface warming to stop Frank?" What does that mean?

 

[westwall]

Estimate how Ian? You leave your reader to assume that such estimates must be unreasonable and are the source of all observed global warming. Is that what you actually believe?

when have I ever said that? there has been some global warming, especially compared to the Little Ice Age.

unreasonable? poorly reasoned is more like it. perhaps poorly implimented is even a better description.

all nearby stations are used to calibrate the 'expected' temperature, regardless of quality. poor quality stations run slightly hotter than good quality stations.

hypothetical station xxx is surrounded by a mixed bag of stations that average, say, a rise of 0.15C/decade. due to natural variability xxx would have, say, a 60/40 chance of rising a full degree C compared to losing a 1C. if the threshold for declaring a 'breakpoint' is 1C over or under the expected 0.15C increase then the spurious 1C cooling will be flagged while the 1C warming will not. once the adjustment is made xxx becomes part of the community of stations defining expectation. what is the likely direction of temperature trend of xxx after a large enough swing downward to be flagged? a return towards the middle which in this case would be even more warming after the correction for breakpoint. kriging in BEST is emphasized and indeed they show the most warming. preferentially raising cool temps raises the average and makes it even more likely that more cool temps will be adjusted.

Where do you get the idea that a miscalibrated temperature sensor is more likely to read high than low?

well. Every temperature correction that has been made has lowered the temps from history, thereby making the current temps warmer. You would think that at least ONE adjustment would have been the other way but nope. Not one.

 

[Crick]

I'm afraid that's false. Adjustments have been made in both directions.

The accusation that all the world's climate authorities are lying about world temperatures, with not a trace of a complaint from the world's climate scientists, is just utter nonsense. It's just another version of the grand global conspiracy.

Doesn't reality ever break through whatever bubble you're living in?

 

[westwall]

I'm afraid that's false. Adjustments have been made in both directions.

The accusation that all the world's climate authorities are lying about world temperatures, with not a trace of a complaint from the world's climate scientists, is just utter nonsense. It's just another version of the grand global conspiracy.

Doesn't reality ever break through whatever bubble you're living in?

Show us ONE where the adjustment went opposite. Just one.

 

[IanC]

Hansen made an adjustment downward when McIntyre discovered the Y2K bug that had been sitting in the books for years. Of course it took less than two years to claw it back.

 

[mamooth]

Show us ONE where the adjustment went opposite. Just one.

The UHI adjustments (purple line) apply a cooling temp to recent temps.

The TOBS correction is a mixed bag.

The shelter-type correction (red line) and station location correction (yellow line) apply a warming bias to recent temps.

GHCN Global Gridded Data

You may proceed with goalpost moving now.

 

[IanC]

UHI adjustments are almost exactly net neutral. I know it is hard to believe they have talked themselves into believing an extra 5 billion people make no difference but they have. Just another thing most people don't know and don't get told about in any meaningful way.