What will the global temperature be in 2020 for Noaa and Giss

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Matthew, Jun 9, 2011.

  1. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    2010 was near .545c, which is the baseline. So you get .2c from 2000-2010 warm up over the 1990's, so you would expect .74c for 2020 "baseline". IF global temperatures work in a linear way and worked like the first decade. BUT considering that this decade WON"T have 2002-2007, which was more or less neutral and without huge nina's forcing the avg up and we are likely in a more nina like pattern I'd say .7c for 2020 within a neutral year(NO NINA or Nino).

    I'm not saying MAN is causing it or co2 for that matter, but we do appear to be within a time that our planet is warming for some reason. It of course could be entirely natural like the roman or med evil warm periods, but we are within such a period now and I thought it would be interesting to hear your opinion on 2020.

    The baseline is more or less the avg of the nina and nino's and other patterns that cause up and downs. In the graph of the giss data this is shown. I believe the reason why the temperature seemed to warm faster in the 1994-2000 period is because of the massive volcano that went off in 1991. I believe it caused the global temperature to drop about -.1c, but we quickly rebounded and warmed near as quick as it would of. That is why the 1990's appear so much faster warming up then the 2000's.
     

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    Last edited: Jun 9, 2011
  2. RWatt
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    RWatt Member

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    yes something like that. The period 2002 - 2007 (or even 2002-now) had a cooling solar contribution and cooling ENSO contribution.

    My guess is ENSO will head up a little more to just above neutral in coming months, but not won't hover there high or long enough for El Nino status. Even so I think it will be obvious that temperature has jumped upward since circa 2008 and be obvious that we are a moderate El Nino away from a new record.

    ENSO will however drop back down into negative well into 2012, we will probably even get another La Nina but my guess is it will be weaker than the one we just had. The end of that negative ENSO period will be around mid 2012. We'll get another El Nino coming on after that (overdue). If that El Nino is moderate to strong then it will set up 2013 for a record year. 2013 would be boosted by it's proximity to solar maximum.

    Although I emphasize that to anyone watching closely it should be obvious that temperature has stepped upward before 2013 as temperature during the aforementioned 2012 La Nina should fail to reach expected lows.
     
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  3. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    strongest La Nina on record.

    Based on measurements of air pressure differences, another way of measuring La Niña besides sea-surface temperatures, this La Niña in February was the most intense on record. Accurate measurements go back to 1950.
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Stanford climate scientists forecast permanently hotter summers beginning in 20 years

    The tropics and much of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience an irreversible rise in summer temperatures within the next 20 to 60 years if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, according to a new climate study by Stanford University scientists. The results will be published later this month in the journal Climatic Change Letters.

    In the study, the Stanford team concluded that many tropical regions in Africa, Asia and South America could see "the permanent emergence of unprecedented summer heat" in the next two decades. Middle latitudes of Europe, China and North America – including the United States – are likely to undergo extreme summer temperature shifts within 60 years, the researchers found.

    "According to our projections, large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years," said the study's lead author, Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science and fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford. The study is co-authored by Stanford research assistant Martin Scherer.
     
  5. daveman
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    daveman Diamond Member

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    "Permanently hotter"?

    Utter nonsense. The climate is variable.
     
  6. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Right...In a few thousand years or so we will go into a ice age. So it is NOT permanent.
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    The strongest La Nina on record, yet by Dr. Spencer's records, the 13 month running mean will get nowhere near the zero line. In fact, it appears that it will be higher, at it's lowest extent, than all the highs previous to 1998. In spite of the strength of the La Nina, there were only three months below the zero line, and two were just barely below, -0.01, and -0.02. And then there is the global surface ocean temperature, nowhere near matching the 2008 low in spite of the strength of the the La Nina.

    Very interesting.

    UAH Temperature Update for May, 2011: +0.13 deg. C « Roy Spencer, Ph. D.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Permenantly hotter as far as a few human generations are concerned.
     
  9. daveman
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    I really wish you guys would stick to the standard dictionary definitions of words. You'd look less stupid.
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Daveboy, thy middle name is stupidity. Even as we speak, record high temperatures are being set across the nation. Worldwide, the last year has been extroidinery in the extremes of weather events and the effects on agriculture are being felt worldwide right now.
     

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