Statistikhengst
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USC / Dornsife Poll, released 13.09.2015:
1,500 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
also: CROSSTABS (.pdf)
the Republican race is first for all candidates, then a four way race, then a three way race, then two one-on-one matches:
Trump 24
Carson 18
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Rubio 5
Fiorina 5
All others 3 or less
Margin: Trump +6
In a four way race:
Trump 27
Carson 25
Rubio 13
Bush 11
Margin: Trump +2
Two way: Trump vs. Bush:
Trump 47
Bush 32
Margin: Trump +15
Two way: Trump vs. Carson:
Trump 32
Carson 43
Margin: Carson +11
On the Democratic side, the field is measured with or without Vice-President Biden:
without Biden:
Clinton 42
Sanders 26
Another candidate 10
Margin: Clinton +16
with Biden:
Clinton 39
Sanders 23
Biden 11
Another candidate 10
Margin: Clinton +16
What's interesting here, other than the fact that in the full field, Trump is just barely aheady, whilst Clinton's lead remains the same with or without Biden, are some of the internals:
Of the few Black Republicans and few Latino Republicans, Trump does poorly among Black Republicans and pretty much ties Bush among Latino Republicans.
This is the first detailed GOP nomination poll from California, so it is indeed interesting to watch, especially since that state will provide a ENORMOUS bevy of delegates to both party conventions.
-Stat
1,500 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
also: CROSSTABS (.pdf)
the Republican race is first for all candidates, then a four way race, then a three way race, then two one-on-one matches:
Trump 24
Carson 18
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Rubio 5
Fiorina 5
All others 3 or less
Margin: Trump +6
In a four way race:
Trump 27
Carson 25
Rubio 13
Bush 11
Margin: Trump +2
Two way: Trump vs. Bush:
Trump 47
Bush 32
Margin: Trump +15
Two way: Trump vs. Carson:
Trump 32
Carson 43
Margin: Carson +11
On the Democratic side, the field is measured with or without Vice-President Biden:
without Biden:
Clinton 42
Sanders 26
Another candidate 10
Margin: Clinton +16
with Biden:
Clinton 39
Sanders 23
Biden 11
Another candidate 10
Margin: Clinton +16
What's interesting here, other than the fact that in the full field, Trump is just barely aheady, whilst Clinton's lead remains the same with or without Biden, are some of the internals:
Of the few Black Republicans and few Latino Republicans, Trump does poorly among Black Republicans and pretty much ties Bush among Latino Republicans.
This is the first detailed GOP nomination poll from California, so it is indeed interesting to watch, especially since that state will provide a ENORMOUS bevy of delegates to both party conventions.
-Stat
