US-Israel-Turkey

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by ekrem, Jan 18, 2010.

  1. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    By George Friedman
    Israel, Turkey and Low Seats | STRATFOR

    It's free article.
    Do you agree, that if Israeli-Turkish relations collapse, there will be also a severe blow to US-Israelian relations and USA will side with Turkey?
    What are your thoughts?
     
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    Last edited: Jan 18, 2010
  2. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    Don't get me wrong it does not matter with whom you side as long as you not work against us.
     
  3. elvis
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    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

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    man, i thought the Israelis and Americans were going to get together for Thanksgiving.
     
  4. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    I understood that. Nice wordplay.
    BUT:


    The name of Turkey, Türkiye in the Turkish language, can be divided into two words: Türk, which means "Strong" in Old Turkic[9] and usually signifying the inhabitants of Turkey or a member of the Turkish or Turkic peoples,[9] a later form of "Tu–kin", a name given by the Chinese to the people living south of the Altay Mountains of Central Asia as early as 177 BCE;[10] and the abstract suffix –iye (derived from the Arabic suffix –iyya, but also associated with the Medieval Latin suffix –ia in Turchia, and the Medieval Greek suffix –ία in Τουρκία), which means "owner" or "related to". The first recorded use of the term "Türk" or "Türük" as an autonym is contained in the Orkhon inscriptions of the Göktürks (Sky Turks) of Central Asia (c. 8th century CE). The English word "Turkey" is derived from the Medieval Latin "Turchia" (c. 1369).[10]
    Turkey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Turkey means "land of the strong". I accept that.
    Also noone humiliates Turk.

    Alparslan, King of Seljuk Turks humiliateing Emperor Romanos IV Diogenes of Byzantine:
    [​IMG]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alparslan
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2010
  5. ekrem
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    Last edited: Jan 19, 2010
  6. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    But while Erdogan may appear to be striking out independently of his country's NATO partners, it's notable that his outbursts critical of Israel draw little comment from the U.S. and Europe. That suggests "there is a sense that Erdogan is saying things that someone needs to say to Israel," says a European diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity. Just last month, Erdogan left an upbeat meeting with President Barack Obama, rode to a downtown Washington hotel and gave a speech lambasting Israel for "inhuman" deeds in Gaza. "The timing doesn't suggest someone who is unaware of what he's doing in an international context," says Candar. "The West is relieved to have someone taking on Israel. They've outsourced the job to Erdogan. That's why, when he does the cost analysis of saying these things about Israel, he has the added confidence of knowing that Turkey won't face recrimination from its Western partners either."

    Beirut daily Al Akhbar's headline on the Ayalon apology story praised "Sultan Erdogan" and exalted that "Israel understands only Turkish."

    Read more: Turkey's Diplomatic Sparring with Israel - TIME

    Read more: Turkey's Diplomatic Sparring with Israel - TIME
     
  7. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    The Schengen Area
    Schengen Area - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Turkey has abolished visas with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan in recent months.
    Apart from that several inter-governmental agreements where signed bringing the cooperation to ministry based cooperation between the countries.
    Prime Minister of Turkey is speaking of the "Sam"gen Area in reference to the Schengen Area within the EU. "Sam" means in Turkish Damascus.
    LINK: Turkish-Israeli tension on the axis of the ‘Damascus Province’ - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

    We also signed agreements with Lebanon and Syria for military-industry collaboration.
    The last with Lebanon during the complete Lebanese cabinet visit to Turkey in last week. Out of this cabinet visit by Lebanon government was signed 6 agreements including military-industry.
    In July Erdogan is mirroring the Lebanese visit to Lebanon.
    In July will be signed another 53 agreements with Lebanon.
    LINK: Lebanese PM Hariri's visit to Turkey benefits both_English_Xinhua


    Jordan, Syria, Saudi-Arabia and Turkey are currently already rebuilding the Hejaz-Railway destroyed during WW1.
    This railway, on Turkish soil a high-speed line, will connect Istanbul with Mecca.
    The railway is envisaged to transport yearly 10 Million passengers:
    LINK: Speed train on pilgrimage road: Turkey's Istanbul-Mecca to take 24 hours [ WORLD BULLETIN- TURKEY NEWS, WORLD NEWS ]
    LINK: Kingdom, Turkey decide to restore historic Hejaz Railway


    Good boy, Israelian Defence MInister speaking in Ankara:

    “I do not see signs of anti-Semitism in Turkey unlike other countries in the world.”
    “Jews are accepted here [in Turkey].”
    Barak said he understand the position of Erdoğan. “He speaks frankly, openly and in a transparent manner to our face” defense minister said, stressing that “You cannot put a question mark on the judgment of Turkey.”
    LINK: Barak dismisses anti-Semitism charges in Turkey, says he understands Erdoğan’s criticism


    Erdoğan: Muslim leaders’ response to Gaza ‘pitiful’
    “Let’s not mean the people when saying the Muslim world. If we deal with the issue in regards to the administrations, those administrations have failed to show the reactions that the world’s Muslims expected from them. This has been a pitiful aspect of the matter
    LINK: Erdoğan: Muslim leaders’ response to Gaza ‘pitiful’
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2010
  8. Mr.Fitnah
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    The USA is increasingly pro islamic more toward UAE rather than Turke,y the Turkey thing, trying to force the EU to accept them is DOA .
    I doubt the USA will dump the Israeli government to soon.
    The EU doesnt want or need more jihadist running around with out visas
     
  9. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    First let me say this, different foreign policy issues are off course inter-connected.
    The EU-Turkey thing is off course a major issue for the transatlantic community. I say intentionally transatlantic community, because the USA does not have a say in this but it has interests that Turkey keeps connected to the western "hemisphere" by EU-membership.
    Trade volume between EU and Turkey puts Turkey as 6th biggest trading partner of the EU, infront of countries like India.
    The EU as a whole "legislative body" does not exist when it comes to a common policy regarding Turkey. The EU does consist of 27 nations all having their bilateral relations with Turkey. Into the whole accession thing does play several factors: cultural, geo-political and geo-economical.

    The EU thing is on an auto-fly mode during the accession talks. And all 27 EU-nations in unison agreed to accession talks. You will hear and read several things on newspaper during the accession talks but the decisions will be made after the accession talks, lying some years ahead. I as a Turk do not prefer to join like the majority of Turkish public. I don't think the current government really wants to join also. France for example does also not want Turkey to join, as Turkey immediately would revolutionize the current power-balance within EU to France's disadvantage.
    So why do the accession chapters then anyway proceed? Because accession talks are without an alternative, cancelling the accession talks at this time means "seperate ways" as there is no alternative framework to be put into motion as an alternative for accession talks.
    "Seperate ways" does not even want the contra-Turkey countires within EU.
    So in the coming years the EU-countries will try to come on common ground regarding Turkish EU-Accession.
    Dureing this time the EU-accession talks will be kept alive out of uncertainity.
    And from America you may only hear "negative" reports regarding EU-Turkey.
    But there are many EU countries like Italy, Spain, UK and Sweden supporting Turkish accession, off course when Turkey meets the standards.
    Some of these countries also have an interest to break-up a de-facto Franco-German rule over EU.
    When Turkey joins EU it will at first day immediately replace France as 2nd power within the EU institutions (proportion of Turkish delegates to the EU institutes).

    So the whole EU-thing might be an issue exploitable in elections or for general debates, but it is on auto-fly mode. The decisions are not yet to be taken.
    So this is a wait and talk issue.

    In the mean time Turkey does move on in other areas with "real interests". One of this areas is the Middle East.
    Germany's leading economic newspaper the "Handelsblatt"
    Handelsblatt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    puts it besides other reasons this way:
    The management of Middle Eastern issues by the Middle Eastern countires produces tensions which are a threat to Turkish economic interests increasingly expanding into this area.
    Türkei: Aufbruch des starken Manns am Bosporus - Meinung - Essays - Handelsblatt.com

    Awakening the strong man on the Bosporus
    Google Translate - Handelsblatt

    Turkey is convincened Israel is one of the front-runners in producing tensions in this region. Like Suat Kiniklioglu, deputy chairman of external affairs of the Turkish government says, the Israeli-Turkish relations are now directly connected to the Gaza situation and Israeli-Arab peace.
    Turkey has outsourced relations with Israel from bilateral context to a broader regional context.
    Op-Ed Contributor - A Little Respect, Please - NYTimes.com

    Something in general:
    There is unfortunately Islam paranoia going on. We do not see anyone as our judge and we won't be a lackey to lobby-interests to avoid being stigmatiziced as Islamic fundamentalists or something other.
    It's all about Roosevelt's "big stick" the rest is just manipulation and non-sense in international politics. On personal level I also do not give a fuck about stigmatization into any corner.

    The whole region has developed its own dynamics out of control from USA.
    Turkey did join the "Middle Eastern" game only in 2003 and fundamentally in 2007 by convincing the Americans how it is good for a Turkish operation in North-Iraq.
    Since then Turkey has pursued policy of "economic integration" with every Arab country ,except Egypt, that borders Israel.
    The Prime Minister of Turkey calls this "economic integration" the "Schamgen process" in reference to the Schengen Area within EU. Scham means in Turkish Damascus and Damascus was administrative entity of Ottomans ruling today Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.
    One of the leading foreign policy journalists of Turkey interprets this "economic integration" as a geopolitical stance of Turkey against Israel:
    Turkish-Israeli tension on the axis of the ‘Damascus Province’ - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

    Israel can do nothing against Turkey, Turkey does connected to the outsourcing of Israelian-Turkish bilateral relations to the benchmark Gaza and Israelian-Arab peace.
    Things like this:
    Israel accuses Turkish PM of inciting anti-Semitism - Haaretz - Israel News
    Israel should stop, as i said it is all about the "big stick". Turkey really began to swing that stick around from 2007 onwards. This will increasingly continue, there is nothing anyone can do about it. Further the whole countries around are supportive and receptive of Turkish return to Middle East.
    The Muslim world opinion anyway supports Turkish geopolitical stance against Israel.
     
  10. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    Decade Forecast: 2010-2020

    Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran will remain issues by 2020, but not defining issues in the region. Two other countries will be more important. Turkey is emerging as a self-confident regional leader, with a strong military and economy. We expect that trend to continue, and see Turkey emerging as the dominant regional power. The growth of Turkish power and influence in the next decade is one reason we feel confident in the decline of the U.S.-jihadist war and the transformation of the Iran issue. The dynamic in the region between the Mediterranean and Iran — and even in the Caucasus and Central Asia — will be redefined by Turkey’s re-emergence. Of course, Turkey will feel tremendous internal tensions during this process, as is the case for any emerging power. For Turkey, the relationship between the Ataturkian tradition and the Islamic tradition is the deep fault line. It could falsify this forecast by plunging the country into chaos. While that is possible, we feel that the crisis will be managed over the next decade, albeit with much pain and stress.

    By 2020, Egypt will be changing from the type of country it has been since the 1970s — for the past generation it has lacked the capacity to influence developments beyond its borders. Like Turkey, Egypt is caught between secularism and Islam, and that tension could continue paralyzing it. However, as Turkey rises, Ankara will need a large source of cheap labor and markets for exports. The result will be a “coattails” effect for Egypt. With this synergetic fortification we expect not only an end to Egyptian quiescence, but increased friction between Egypt and all other regional players. In particular, Israel will be searching for the means to maintain its balance between the powerful Turkey and the re-emerging Egypt. This will shape all of its foreign — and domestic — policies.

    Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR
     

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