US Economy Actually Lost 2.5 Million Jobs in January – Reported as a “Gain” of 517,000

now wtf does that have to do with employment statistics?

Not a thing, but it is the last gasp of a desperate man being exposed.

All 48 jobs reports put out by the Trump Admin were seasonally adjusted and none of them ever cared.

But as you pointed out, these people are not well educated enough to even know what it means
 
Well, how do you capitalists and their cult servants sleep well in the "war of all against all"?
This is your blessed marketplace, the endless squabbling of psychopaths over resources and markets. Until the destruction of life on the planet.
This current hell was predicted 150 years ago, when Marx dissected the black soul of capital. But, for morons, Marx is, haha, obsolete.
 
It's only interesting to ignorant rubes, who don't understand how employment statistics work but are in desperate political need to deny official numbers.

This is what raw employment looks like vs adjustments:

saupload_Employment-Seasonal-NonSeasonal-Adj-091218.png


What do you see? ~3 million job contraction like clockwork each and every January.

So if you see 2.5m loss instead of expected 3m, then what does that mean? It's means VERY GOOD EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS.

That actual jobs fell last month isn’t shocking, however, as total employment almost always goes down in January. It is reported as positive only due to sizable seasonal adjustments. But when the economy is in a transitional period, as it is now, seasonal adjustments may or may not actually reflect the current situation. In fact, as we can see in the next graph, when not seasonally adjusted, month-to-month January employment usually falls by at least two million jobs. Many Januarys in recent years have seen job losses of 2.8 million or more. In many cases, the BLS’s adjustments bring these numbers up by approximately three million.

nsa
Is the current adjustment appropriate under the circumstances? We don’t know. It’s pure guesswork. And this all brings to mind Murray Rothbard’s observation about some of the trouble we encounter with these adjustments:

The further one gets from the raw data the further one goes from reality, and therefore the more erroneous any concentration upon that figure. Seasonal adjustments in data are not as harmless as they seem, for seasonal patterns, even for such products as fruit and vegetables, are not set in concrete. Seasonal patterns change, and they change in unpredictable ways, and hence seasonal adjustments are likely to add extra distortions to the data.
With numerous indicators pointing toward recession and with the Fed in the middle of a tightening period, the BLS is applying more or less the same January seasonal adjustment as usual. Will that prove to be the “correct” adjustment in 2023? It’s impossible to say, and it’s certainly impossible to take the make-believe number of “517,000 new jobs” as evidence of the underlying economic fundamentals at all. This sort of extrapolation is especially dangerous when job growth is increasingly all about part-time work.
 
That actual jobs fell last month isn’t shocking, however, as total employment almost always goes down in January. It is reported as positive only due to sizable seasonal adjustments. But when the economy is in a transitional period, as it is now, seasonal adjustments may or may not actually reflect the current situation. In fact, as we can see in the next graph, when not seasonally adjusted, month-to-month January employment usually falls by at least two million jobs. Many Januarys in recent years have seen job losses of 2.8 million or more. In many cases, the BLS’s adjustments bring these numbers up by approximately three million.

nsa
Is the current adjustment appropriate under the circumstances? We don’t know. It’s pure guesswork. And this all brings to mind Murray Rothbard’s observation about some of the trouble we encounter with these adjustments:


With numerous indicators pointing toward recession and with the Fed in the middle of a tightening period, the BLS is applying more or less the same January seasonal adjustment as usual. Will that prove to be the “correct” adjustment in 2023? It’s impossible to say, and it’s certainly impossible to take the make-believe number of “517,000 new jobs” as evidence of the underlying economic fundamentals at all. This sort of extrapolation is especially dangerous when job growth is increasingly all about part-time work.

Bullshit. Look at your graph, it shows that we've just had the LOWEST January job loss in the entire 25 year series presented..

To try to say - "meh whatever, it can mean anything" is just stupid political spin. It's certainly is a strong indicator of solid employment conditions.


Keep reading InfoWars dupe:

  • Overall, InfoWars/Alex Jones is a crackpot, tin foil hat-level conspiracy website that strongly promotes pseudoscience. The amount of fake news, debunked conspiracy claims, and extreme right-wing bias renders InfoWars a non-credible source.
 
Last edited:
Bullshit. Look at your graph, it shows that we've just had the LOWEST January job loss in the entire 25 year series presented..

Wow, that didn't take long. You must be quite a busy guy. *snicker*

It also shows you didn't bother to read anything that the literature stated, for if you had - you would realize that it didn't contradict the graph, nor was the source material INFO WARS or your boogey man Alex Jones.

It's such easy bait for you dummies. (Even though it's far more credible than Blue Anon sources like CNN or NY Times.)

Rest assured I won't be responding to any other half-ass gibberish you manage to spout - I saw where that gets folks in the COVID thread. Just on and on and on with the circular "logic".

In fact, maybe you'll be the first person I actually try out the "Ignore" feature with.

Anyway, ta ta for now. And always.

Dipshit. ;)
 
Wow, that didn't take long. You must be quite a busy guy. *snicker*

It also shows you didn't bother to read anything that the literature stated, for if you had - you would realize that it didn't contradict the graph, nor was the source material INFO WARS or your boogey man Alex Jones.

Dummy, the graph is right, the spin that this January supposedly means nothing is the bullshit.
 
As I posted before, "job gains" are the easiest statistic to fake any way you want to fake it. I stopped paying attention to "job gains" decades ago.
  • Jobs growth is measured by the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • A monthly increase of between 50,000 and 110,000 nonfarm payrolls is the steady-state jobs growth rate that is in line with the gradual expansion of the labor force.
  • Jobs growth figures are released monthly and are subject to revisions over the next two months as additional survey results are collected.
  • These figures often move financial markets as one of the most important and timely economic indicators.
  • Farm employment and agricultural jobs aren't included in these calculations.
 

Forum List

Back
Top