Winston
Platinum Member
No pretending going on here hoss. Managing people's money in retirement is what I do. First off, Dogbreath is absolutely right, he never had that money, it was all on paper, so he didn't really "lose" shit. But, if he thought he might need that money it would have been prudent to at least move whatever he thought he might need out of the market prior to Biden taking office.
For my clients, I suggested maxing out the I-bond amount, paying over 9% interest at the moment. Perfect place to park the maximum allowed. Anything over the max, look for utility stocks and large cap consumables. Look for "income stocks", stay away from bonds unless you are content with the current yield. There may be a play in the bond market, especially Treasuries, within the next couple of years when interest rates start declining. Bill Goss parlayed that type of move to over a billion dollars, and not to brag, but I was right there with him.
See, when your primary target market is people in retirement, well being an expert on interest rates, and being able to predict where they will move in the future, is the golden ticket. If you can predict when they peak, well like myself, you build a network of extremely loyal clients that refer their kids to you.
So let me lay it down for you, and bookmark this post if you want to see how effective I really am. The Fed will increase rates again next month, probably 75 basis points, but maybe less. Treasuries will increase as well, though not as much because of the flight to "safe money". And that should be the peak. In fact, it will probably be overkill. While they may increase rates incrementally until the election, 25 basis points each month, tops, when the Congress flips to Republicans and the Senate as well, we will enter a split government, the market's favorite. Interest rates will begin to decline, the market will take off like a fire is lit under its ass, and my clients will think I am God, once again.
And that is the thing. The knowledge that I have does not come from business school, finance courses, or even statistics and economics. It comes from history. While an MBA student I took graduate level history courses. One professor, graduate level "intellectual history of colonial America", confronted me point blank, what the hell are you doing here. My answer was simple and concise. If I am attempting to predict where the market is going, shouldn't I know where it has been. He never questioned me again.
