Unemployment will settle at a higher rate.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Jun 26, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Unemployment will settle at a higher rate.

    The economy is still falling and falling with no real short term end in sight. The effects of this tremendous collapse will be felt for years in the job market.

    At 9.4 percent and climbing, the unemployment rate is higher than it’s been in a quarter century. This follows the most unusual period from 1997 to 2007, when the annual rate averaged 4.9 percent.

    The new normal will be far, far higher. We better get used to 7 to 8 percent unemployment for many years to come. It may even stagnate at 10% for the next few years.

    The biggest question we have now is, "When will the economy stop falling?"
     
  2. Terral
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    Terral Terral Corp CEO

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    Hi Neubarth:

    Where did you get the 9.4 percent number? The real unemployment rate is somewhere above 15.6 percent (story):

    Anybody thinking that the U.S. Economy is improving is out of his cotton-picking mind. More than 5 million people have lost their job since this recession/depression started and more than 13 million people are unemployed, which is the highest number of unemployed people in the USA since WW2. According to some calculations, the Real Unemployment Rate is 25 Percent (story), so everyone can decide who to believe. This is what I know for a fact: The masonry company where a member of my family has worked since the mid 1960's had 350 people and today they have about 20. The math says that our company has a higher than 25 percent unemployment rate. The problem is that one white guy hires 25 to 50 Illegal Aliens and puts all of the legitimate contracts out of work and out of business. Since nobody is enforcing the immigration and employment laws, then 'worker displacement' is king and American workers end up out of a job.

    No. You got used to the Govt lying every damned day about what is really going on and they keep on lying through their teeth no matter what.

    There is no bottom in the housing market, because too many JOBS are being outsourced and shipped overseas. There are far too many Foreign Nationals (legal and illegal) running around 'displacing' U.S. Workers from JOBS for any recovery to ever stand one chance. Bush and now Obama give money to the banksters and the little guys get the dirty end of the stick, while wages continue going south and the Consumer Base is destroyed.

    The local economies cannot gain any traction, because Illegal Aliens are sending 'our' money back home, unless you are Walmart and McDonald's. Now the New World Order Elites are pushing Comprehensive Illegal Alien Amnesty for everyone 'hiring' the Illegal Aliens, so we should expect things to get FAR worse. After all, the next 20 to 30 million Foreign Nationals are coming to take our jobs from this current batch 'and' nobody is doing one thing about it . . .

    Think about it: When Outsourcing and Foreign Nationals and Free Trade Stupidity puts your customers out of JOBS, then you are out of business too . . .

    GL,

    Terral
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2009
  3. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    Unemployment is going above 10%.

    Here is the employment ratio, which measures the percentage of the total population employed.

    [​IMG]

    Employment is now back to where it was in the early 1980s.
     
  4. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Correction: it's not the percentage of the total population, but percentage of the adult civilian non-institutional population which consists of everyone 16 years and older who is not in prison, a mental institute (or other long-term health care) or in the military. As of May, that number is estimated at 235,452,000 (source = BLS), compared to estimated total population of 306,326,530 (source = Census Bureau)
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2009
  5. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    I always find it amusing that some people discout the official U-3 rate (currently 9.4%) as a lie, yet then claim that the U-6 rate (which BLS does not like to call an unemployment rate because it includes employed people, currently at 16.4%) is the "real" rate when the U-6 comes from the same report and is calculated by the same people.

    Very simply: there is no such thing as a "real unemployment rate," as it all depends on what defintion of unemployment and employment you're using. There is no single absolute, handed-down-by-God, definition. The US uses the same definition most of the world uses (the ILO definition), because it's the most objective and most accurately reflects the how difficult or easy it is to get a job.

    The U-6, which includes all people who say they want and are available for a job (even though they're not actually trying to get one) and people who are working part-time because their hours have been cut or because they can't find full-time work, is useful for looking at a broad view of potential labor sources, but isn't good at showing what the actual state of the Labor Market is.
     
  6. code1211
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    code1211 Senior Member

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    I don't know what the actual figures are or what the experts say, but from my own observations dealing with employers who have workforces between 1000 and about 100 in good times, this is very scary right now. Very scary. Layoffs are still going on in most businesses and those businesses that are back to full staff have done so at a time when they have usually brought in the summer temps and the contract soft labor.

    Still down about 20% by that measure.

    That Obama has withheld about 90% of the stimulus money is criminal. He is obviously waiting for a time nearer to the election to start dispensing it to Blue States. I was hopeful that he would walk the walk, but he only talks the talk. He's a political snake with only political ambition as his guide.

    A modern day Nero.
     
  7. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    Yes. I meant to say "total employable population."
     
  8. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    When Americans realize that when their neighbors are gettiing poorer, so are they.

    We're ALMOST there, BTW.
     
  9. code1211
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    code1211 Senior Member

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    What will this realization do?
     

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