Gasp a Depression?

[HippieChick75]

HI there! I am hoping that some of you can shed some light on the situation out here in good old sunny southern California. First off I want to start off by saying that we are in a depression, period end of story. I am in the epicenter of the housing crisis. Massive amounts of people I know can’t get work or are laid off, cities are turning into ghosts towns, I’m paying $5 for bread, and everything is going up up up in price! If that wasn't worse enough the media is spoon feeding a bunch of happy feel good economy crap. Despite all the stuff going on out here in good old CA everyone I know tells me I am a conspiracy theorist for believing we are in a Depression. This is to include my own husband. They say this is what happened in the 70s and I should not worry my pretty little head. What gives? I am not one to jump on the band wagon but I am seeing it with my very own eyes. I see it coming, like a wave off in the distance…and it is big! Huge even and everyone else is just averting their eyes to it. Why? Why? Why? Why?

 

[Baruch Menachem]

We are in a depression because I am out of work. If you were out of work, that would be either bad luck, or it a couple other poeple were out luck, that would just be a recession.

Well the unemployemt rate is really high. Banks are failing, bankruptcy all over the place, major companies going out of business.

No one is averting their eyes. When the smash first came, the powers that be tried their hardest to stop the disaster. I think the policy they chose was wrong, but they were doing their best/worse to avert what we have now.

 

[Skull Pilot]

I can't say this is a depression. My business is pulling in on average better than 20% more than last year.

And if this really was a depression would new i phones be back ordered for a month?

 

[editec]

HI there! I am hoping that some of you can shed some light on the situation out here in good old sunny southern California. First off I want to start off by saying that we are in a depression, period end of story. I am in the epicenter of the housing crisis. Massive amounts of people I know can’t get work or are laid off, cities are turning into ghosts towns, I’m paying $5 for bread, and everything is going up up up in price! If that wasn't worse enough the media is spoon feeding a bunch of happy feel good economy crap. Despite all the stuff going on out here in good old CA everyone I know tells me I am a conspiracy theorist for believing we are in a Depression. This is to include my own husband. They say this is what happened in the 70s and I should not worry my pretty little head. What gives? I am not one to jump on the band wagon but I am seeing it with my very own eyes. I see it coming, like a wave off in the distance…and it is big! Huge even and everyone else is just averting their eyes to it. Why? Why? Why? Why?

I think that some regions are worse off than others. We're informed that CA, NV and FLA are particularly hard hit because of the RE crises.

It's a game of semantics to debate whether we're in a recession or a depression.

We're in hard economic times for most people, that's for damned sure.

People avert their eyes to problems because they've been taught that recognizing a harsh reality the sign of a weak character, and truly brave people only ever see the glass as half full regardless of whether or not there's a glass at all.

But there is something to the theory that an optomistic outlook works as a talisman against bad fortune.

And there is certainly also something to the theory that one ought to count one's blessings rather than one's problems.

The fact that you can still post your thoughts here is one indication that as yet the wolf has yet to break down your door, no?

This economy will evolve into something different than what it once was.

Whether that will be a happier outcome for most of us remains to be seen.

Believe it or not, it very well could be that this economic crises will, in the long run, make us a better people.

Hardship often does make us better people, ya know.

Not necessarily a wealthier people, but often it makes us a stronger, and with luck, a truly more decent people.

Take it one day at a time, HipChic.

Prepare for heavy swells, of course, but don't abandon ship just yet.

 

[Douger]

You have it exactly right H.C. The rest of the sheep aint seen nuttin yet. The Movie is OVER.

iphones back ordered for a month ? Just goes to show you how fuggin dumb Amurikkastanians really are !

 

[Skull Pilot]

You have it exactly right H.C. The rest of the sheep aint seen nuttin yet. The Movie is OVER.

iphones back ordered for a month ? Just goes to show you how fuggin dumb Amurikkastanians really are !

at lease we Americans can spell.

But you keep believing the line that we're in a depression. i was out for a cocktail with my lovely wife last night and the bar was packed with people drinking $10 margaritas and $5 pints and there was an hour wait for a table.

If we were all as bad off as you say wouldn't people be staying home and drinking Pabst at $12 a case?

 

[Toro]

There is no Depression.

Recession, yes, and a sharp one, but no Depression.

 

[editec]

You have it exactly right H.C. The rest of the sheep aint seen nuttin yet. The Movie is OVER.

iphones back ordered for a month ? Just goes to show you how fuggin dumb Amurikkastanians really are !

at lease we Americans can spell.

But you keep believing the line that we're in a depression. i was out for a cocktail with my lovely wife last night and the bar was packed with people drinking $10 margaritas and $5 pints and there was an hour wait for a table.

If we were all as bad off as you say wouldn't people be staying home and drinking Pabst at $12 a case?

Doesn't that depend on your class and income?

Perhaps you ought to check out a bar where if you ordered a margarita the bartender would laugh in your face.

I suspect you'd find a slightly different reality there.

 

[Neubarth]

There is no Depression.

Recession, yes, and a sharp one, but no Depression.

Bolshoi!

Nearly 20 Million Americans have filed for Unemployment Compensation (Insurance to some) in the past year. When 20 Million people lose their jobs in 12 months, we are in a deep deep Depression.

 

[Skull Pilot]

You have it exactly right H.C. The rest of the sheep aint seen nuttin yet. The Movie is OVER.

iphones back ordered for a month ? Just goes to show you how fuggin dumb Amurikkastanians really are !

at lease we Americans can spell.

But you keep believing the line that we're in a depression. i was out for a cocktail with my lovely wife last night and the bar was packed with people drinking $10 margaritas and $5 pints and there was an hour wait for a table.

If we were all as bad off as you say wouldn't people be staying home and drinking Pabst at $12 a case?

Doesn't that depend on your class and income?

Perhaps you ought to check out a bar where if you ordered a margarita the bartender would laugh in your face.

I suspect you'd find a slightly different reality there.

You mean those bars in Maine that serve both kinds of beer

Bud AND Bud light?

and FYI i am as blue collar as it gets. My favorite bars are biker bars

 

[Neubarth]

Here is about 6 months worth of Unemployment claims (short one week) Add these up and tell us how many lost their jobs in the past six months. I think it is over 15 Million. Now, consider that there were many more millions who did not qualify to file for Unemployment Insurance as they had not been employed the requisite number of months previous to being unemployed.

WEEK of 6/20 627 K
WEEK of 6/13 612 K previously 608 K
WEEK of 6/06 605 K previously 601K
WEEK of 5/30 625 K previously 621 K
WEEK of 5/23 625 K previously 623 K
WEEK of 5/16 636 K previously 631 K
WEEK of 5/09 643 K previously 637 K
WEEK of 5/02 605 K previously 601 K
WEEK of 4/25 635 K previously 631 K
WEEK of 4/18 645 K previously 640 K
WEEK of 4/11 613 K previously 610 K
WEEK of 4/04 663 K previously 654 K
WEEK of 3/28 674 K previously 669 K
WEEK of 3/21 657 K previously 652 K
WEEK of 3/14 644 K previously 646 K
WEEK of 3/07 658 K previously 654 K
WEEK of 2/28 645 K previously 639 K
WEEK of 2/21 670 K previously 667 K
WEEK of 2/14 631 K previously 627 K
WEEK of 2/07 627 K previously 623 K
WEEK of 1/31 631 K previously 626 K
WEEK of 1/24 591 K previously 588 K
WEEK of 1/17 585 K previously 589 K
WEEK of 1/10 527 K previously 524 K

 

[KittenKoder]

at lease we Americans can spell.

But you keep believing the line that we're in a depression. i was out for a cocktail with my lovely wife last night and the bar was packed with people drinking $10 margaritas and $5 pints and there was an hour wait for a table.

If we were all as bad off as you say wouldn't people be staying home and drinking Pabst at $12 a case?

Doesn't that depend on your class and income?

Perhaps you ought to check out a bar where if you ordered a margarita the bartender would laugh in your face.

I suspect you'd find a slightly different reality there.

You mean those bars in Maine that serve both kinds of beer

Bud AND Bud light?

and FYI i am as blue collar as it gets. My favorite bars are biker bars

Oooh ... I am the new "black collar" worker!

As for the recession/depression argument, the only thing I have to ask, is there really that big a difference?

 

[pinqy]

There is no Depression.

Recession, yes, and a sharp one, but no Depression.

Bolshoi!

Nearly 20 Million Americans have filed for Unemployment Compensation (Insurance to some) in the past year. When 20 Million people lose their jobs in 12 months, we are in a deep deep Depression.

But how many people gained jobs in the last year?
You continue to ignore the dynamic nature of the Labor Force. Every month some people quit, get laid off, retire, die, and every month other people enter the workforce for the first time, or re-enter after an absence. Also, the official Employment figure (non-farm establishments) will count a person twice if they have two jobs...he loses one, he's not unemployed, but the Employment number goes down. Everything is continually moving and changing. You can't rationally point to a single figure and say "this means we're in a depression."

 

[wimpy77]

california has a whole set of problems. their problems go back decades from spending too much money.

 

[Annie]

Hell's bells, I want to know where this poster is buying their $5 bread in the 'depression'? I've been buying double loaves of Honey/7-grain, Whole wheat, and white at Costco for about $3. That's $1.50 a loaf. Now if one 'just has to buy' Artisan bread, well that doesn't sound like a depression to me.

Yes, I'm aware of CA loses regarding RE. I also understand that for many years now, the real estate there was way over priced. I understand regional differences and cost-of-living differences, but CA, at least Southern California was way out of whack. Metro Chicago is not a low priced market, back in 2000 a bungalow in decent area would set you back $250-300k, one that cost $15k in 1950. Serious appreciation. In CA that same house was well over $650k. Just way out of whack. I don't think Long Island was as comparably expensive.

 

[Neubarth]

There is no Depression.

Recession, yes, and a sharp one, but no Depression.

Bolshoi!

Nearly 20 Million Americans have filed for Unemployment Compensation (Insurance to some) in the past year. When 20 Million people lose their jobs in 12 months, we are in a deep deep Depression.

But how many people gained jobs in the last year?
You continue to ignore the dynamic nature of the Labor Force. Every month some people quit, get laid off, retire, die, and every month other people enter the workforce for the first time, or re-enter after an absence. Also, the official Employment figure (non-farm establishments) will count a person twice if they have two jobs...he loses one, he's not unemployed, but the Employment number goes down. Everything is continually moving and changing. You can't rationally point to a single figure and say "this means we're in a depression."

You keep on lookin' for an argument in the manner in which you post. Lighten up!

I have not ignored the dynamics of the Labor Force. I have addressed those issues in numerous other posts that I know you have read. The fact remains that the horribly corrupt Obama Administration is trying to get people to believe that of 2.8 Million Americans who file for Unemployment Compensation each month, 2.1 Million of them find jobs right away. Then his stooges create numbers out of thin air to downsize the remaining 700,000 unemployed to only 345,000.

Ironically the DOL released an additional report that said that the ranks of those still receiving unemployment compensation rose by 700,000.

If they are going to lie, they have got to get the numbers on their releases to agree.

Right now the DOL looks stupider than shit. But then again, the woman that Obama put in the position of Secretary is not that bright.

 

[pinqy]

You keep on lookin' for an argument in the manner in which you post. Lighten up!

Yes, I am looking for an argument ("a connected series of statements to establish a definite proposition*") instead of assertions. You keep making claims that show zero understanding of how the different numbers are calculated and you never back up any of your claims of manipulation.

I have not ignored the dynamics of the Labor Force. I have addressed those issues in numerous other posts that I know you have read.

No, you haven't...you keep talking as if when the number of people filing for UI should match the change in Employment should match the change in Unemployment. They shouldn't. 2.5 million new UI claims does not mean the total number of employed has gone down 2.5 million nor that the number of Unemployed has gone up 2.5 million.

The fact remains that the horribly corrupt Obama Administration is trying to get people to believe that of 2.8 Million Americans who file for Unemployment Compensation each month, 2.1 Million of them find jobs right away. Then his stooges create numbers out of thin air to downsize the remaining 700,000 unemployed to only 345,000.

Nobody is saying that of the 2.8 million, 2.1 million find a job right away...Nobody. You’re comparing 3 different surveys that measure completely different things.

The Unemployment Insurance levels do NOT measure people who just lost their jobs, but it measures people who filed for Insurance…they might have been unemployed for weeks. It’s produced by main Department of Labor on a weekly basis.

The Employment level (from the Establishment Survey) measures how many jobs (NOT people…those with 2 jobs get counted twice) there are in non-agricultural industries and also excludes the self-employed, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers. It comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, NOT main DOL. It is based on one week of the month: “How many employees did you have during week X?”

The Unemployment level (and rate) comes from a Household survey (conducted by the Census Bureau for BLS). The household survey also has an Employment level (which is not the official figure)which includes everyone who worked at least one hour for pay or 15 or more hours as an unpaid family worker. Its Unemployment level is all those who did not work, but had looked for work. Note that doesn’t mean they’ve lost their job, they might never have had a job, or been out of the Labor Force for a while and have just started looking for a job. Note that this means that changes in the two numbers don’t have to add up. By the Household survey, from April to May, Employment went down 437,000, and Unemployment went up 787,000, and total Labor Force went up 350,000. That means that 350,000 more people joined the Labor Force, either as Employed, or Unemployed. It’s also based on one week out of the month: “During week X did you work for pay or 15+ hours unpaid in a family business. If no, did you look for work in the previous four weeks.”

So, different definitions, different surveys, different time periods….of course the numbers never match exactly (not even considering the margins of error for the surveys).

To make things a little clearer (hopefully), let’s look at yet another BLS survey, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey which covers non-farm payroll employment similar to the official Employment report, but covers the entire month and looks at Job Openings, Hires, and Seperations (layoffs, quits, and other). In April, 4,718,000 people left their jobs...2,557,000 were discharged or laid off (close to the number of new filings for UI), 1,771,000 quit, and the rest retired, died, transferred, or left due to disability. But at the same time 4,165,000 people were hired! That's why employment didn't go down by all the fired people.

And you’re still talking as if the Sec Labor had anything to do with BLS figures…she doesn’t. For the 342nd time, the Commissioner of BLS, who IS in charge of how the BLS numbers are calculated (though he doesn’t have anything to do with the actual calculations) can hardly an Obama stooge as he was appointed by Bush. Also the vast majority of DOL and BLS and Census employees had worked for their agency way before Obama.

Ironically the DOL released an additional report that said that the ranks of those still receiving unemployment compensation rose by 700,000.

And not all of those people are Unemployed by the BLS definition. Some states allow allow people to continue to receive partial benefits even after they find work (if the pay is less than their previous salary) and some have not looked for work in the previous four weeks and so are Not in the Labor Force, even if they are still eligible for UI.

If they are going to lie, they have got to get the numbers on their releases to agree.

If the numbers all agreed, that would be clear sign of manipulation. They shouldn't agree because they're measuring different things at different time periods. It would be awfully suspicious if they all matched up, especially when you consider that all the numbers except UI claims are estimations and have a margin of error (at a 90% confidence level, the change in the official Employment level was between -444,435 and -245,565. The change in the Labor Force was between -18,141 and +718,141. The change in Unemployment was between 419,839 and 1,154,161)

Right now the DOL looks stupider than shit. But then again, the woman that Obama put in the position of Secretary is not that bright.

Do you honestly think she has anything to do with the actual calculation of anything???? That's not her job.

I know I've explained the different numbers and where they come from and why they don't match before, but you keep ignoring it.

*[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y]Argument Clinic[/ame] Monty Python's Flying Circus.

 

[HippieChick75]

$5.00 bread is on the shelves of Albertson's, Staters, and Vons and no sweetheart I don't mean the expensive kind. I am talking about the ghetto bread. You get extremely happy if bread is under $3 bucks on sale out here. Furthermore, I live in an upper class (well used to be LOL) part of So Cal...Corona...google it and the fall out is horrendous. On a walk I saw two people fighting over trash the other day. Weekends are pillaged with garage sale after garage sale and people flock to them like Christmas sales. It is unbelievable. Just today I counted 15 separate families loading furniture out to the trash with their very visible trucks and U Hauls packed sky high fleeing their homes. Had they lost their homes? Were they leaving the state? Did their house get foreclosed on? Had they simply decided to move? Had they lost their jobs? I know not the answers to these questions but 15 different families in an approximate 4 mile radius on a 10 minute drive is something to make me wonder. California does have its issues, huge issues, however....trash digging is becoming the norm, tent cities have sprang up in areas where none used to be there, and the beach is packed with people living out of their cars. Its as if individuals that have lost their homes are flocking the California Beaches. I have lived in So Cal my entire life from Los Angeles, to Huntington Beach, to the Inland Empire and beyond and I have never seen the likes of what is occurring. Call it what you want...but I feel out here in California we are suffering a depression.

 

[Annie]

$5.00 bread is on the shelves of Albertson's, Staters, and Vons and no sweetheart I don't mean the expensive kind. I am talking about the ghetto bread. You get extremely happy if bread is under $3 bucks on sale out here. Furthermore, I live in an upper class (well used to be LOL) part of So Cal...Corona...google it and the fall out is horrendous. On a walk I saw two people fighting over trash the other day. Weekends are pillaged with garage sale after garage sale and people flock to them like Christmas sales. It is unbelievable. Just today I counted 15 separate families loading furniture out to the trash with their very visible trucks and U Hauls packed sky high fleeing their homes. Had they lost their homes? Were they leaving the state? Did their house get foreclosed on? Had they simply decided to move? Had they lost their jobs? I know not the answers to these questions but 15 different families in an approximate 4 mile radius on a 10 minute drive is something to make me wonder. California does have its issues, huge issues, however....trash digging is becoming the norm, tent cities have sprang up in areas where none used to be there, and the beach is packed with people living out of their cars. Its as if individuals that have lost their homes are flocking the California Beaches. I have lived in So Cal my entire life from Los Angeles, to Huntington Beach, to the Inland Empire and beyond and I have never seen the likes of what is occurring. Call it what you want...but I feel out here in California we are suffering a depression.

I tried to access the Albertson's site for LA, zip 90045-2659 which is the zip for Loyola Marymount in LA, which is where my comparisons in 2000 came from. But no go, after 10 minutes, which means not happening in my experience.

I'm sorry, but still find it way off to find you are paying $5 for bread, when with minimal effort one can find better than 'Wonder' for $1.50 in another expensive market. If you were claiming $2 or even $2.50 more? It's more than possible. I think you are not comparing regular, even above regular. You are comparing specialties.

wow, I just got a hit with Albertson's specialty/Artisan bread at $2.50, not talking Wonder or house brand. Sorry, you lose.

Albertsons:: Save - Weekly Ad

 

[Toro]

Fast food joints are still advertising for people where I'm at.

This ain't no "depression."