U.S. hurricane drought still in record territory

[Freewill]

More good news on the global warming/climate change/climate disruption front?

Maybe we will all be wishing for more heat when the Iceland volcano erupts or Yellowstone. For now it seems as if nothing in the GW/CC/CD front is anything more then fear mongering.

US Hurricane drought still in record territory - newsnet5.com Cleveland

 

[waltky]

Possible multi-decade cooling trend in the Atlantic Ocean...

NOAA: 'Uncertainty About Whether High-Activity Era of Atlantic Hurricanes Has Ended’
May 27, 2016 – Climate factors known to influence the formation of hurricanes, including a possible multi-decade cooling trend in the Atlantic Ocean, are causing “uncertainty about whether the high-activity era of Atlantic hurricanes has ended,” according to Kathryn Sullivan, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

“This year, there is strong variability in several key climate factors greater than in past years. And so there is uncertainty as to whether these factors will be reinforcing each other or competing with respect to tropical storm formation. “More specifically, there’s uncertainty about whether the high-activity era of Atlantic hurricanes has ended,” Sullivan told reporters during a press conference Friday at NOAA’s Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Maryland. “This high activity phase began in 1995. It’s associated with an ocean temperature pattern that is called the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, or AMO. A warm phase of the AMO leads to warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures, and a stronger West African monsoon, and these contribute to the formation of hurricanes.

“However, during the past three years, weaker hurricane seasons have been accompanied by a shift towards the cool signature of the AMO, cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures, and a weaker West African monsoon,” Sullivan continued. “If this shift proves to be more than short-lived, if it’s not just a temporary blip, then it could be signaling the arrival of a low activity era for Atlantic hurricanes. Possibly, that’s already begun, possibly we’re just in a transient,” she said, adding that “high and low phases tend to run 25 to 40 years." “When we’re looking at these ocean temperature patterns, we’re not looking at month to month or year to year changes. We’re looking at patterns that last for multiple decades at a time,” explained Dr. Gerry Bell, head of NOAA’s hurricane forecasting team.

“So while we’re seeing the warm phase of the AMO possibly switching to the cold phase, this couple of year transition we’re seeing may just reflect the normal year to year signals and not really a multi-decadal pattern. So what we’ll be looking for to see if this actually is a multi-decadal shift is the duration and also its duration during the year. “Right now, we’re seeing the cold AMO signal more in the winter and in the cool season, but really not very much in the summer and into the hurricane season. So we would expect this pattern to develop more through the year and the next couple of years. It may take a few years to really know if we’re in the cool phase of the AMO or not.” The last time there was a transition to the cool phase of the AMO was in the early 1970s, Bell continued, and “we didn’t have any of the capabilities we have now to monitor this.”

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