BluePhantom
Educator (of liberals)
This is obviously causing a lot of anxiety for Republicans and Democrats are licking their chops for it to happen. Obviously if he does, Hillary will win the election because Trump will split the Republican vote just as H. Ross Perot did, allowing Clinton to take the White House. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it. The critical point is that Trump knows it too. So why would he do it? Allow me to suggest a reason why he is making that threat.
Trump is a businessman and a negotiator. One of the critical elements of successful negotiation tactics is to negotiate from a position of strength. Trump likely sees the nomination process as a negotiation between him and the Republican base. By refusing to eliminate the possibility of a third party run he is effectively threatening those he is negotiating with that if they don't take his deal, they may not like what happens as a result. He is essentially putting himself in a position of negotiating power. Now although he is not saying it directly, what he is suggesting is that if Republicans do not make him the nominee he will punish them by ensuring that Hillary wins the election. This will also be important in gaining the endorsements of candidates who drop out of the race in the coming months. So, for example, if Huckabee drops out, Trump can say "Mike you had better throw me your support because you wouldn't want Hillary in the Oval Office would you?" It's blackmail basically. It's business negotiating tactics and it's pretty standard political strategy actually. Political blackmail to gain support happens all the time in both parties.
The thing is, Trump can pull it off because he has a reputation for being vindictive. No other Republican candidate could make that threat because no one would believe they would actually do it. If Marco Rubio, for example, made that threat it would have no strength because no one would believe for a second that he would sabotage the Republicans by running as a third party candidate. Also he has to rely on the National Republican Party for future election support so he would be forced back into line. That's not a concern Trump has. So Trump can make the threat because he doesn't need the National Republican Party (actually they need him for financial support, not the other way around) and people can believe that Trump would "get revenge" by following through with his threat.
It's an unpopular tactic obviously, but it's a damned effective one. Would he actually follow through? I don't think so....but he just might....and that small amount of doubt is all he needs to put him in a position of negotiating strength. It will interesting to see how it all plays out.
Trump is a businessman and a negotiator. One of the critical elements of successful negotiation tactics is to negotiate from a position of strength. Trump likely sees the nomination process as a negotiation between him and the Republican base. By refusing to eliminate the possibility of a third party run he is effectively threatening those he is negotiating with that if they don't take his deal, they may not like what happens as a result. He is essentially putting himself in a position of negotiating power. Now although he is not saying it directly, what he is suggesting is that if Republicans do not make him the nominee he will punish them by ensuring that Hillary wins the election. This will also be important in gaining the endorsements of candidates who drop out of the race in the coming months. So, for example, if Huckabee drops out, Trump can say "Mike you had better throw me your support because you wouldn't want Hillary in the Oval Office would you?" It's blackmail basically. It's business negotiating tactics and it's pretty standard political strategy actually. Political blackmail to gain support happens all the time in both parties.
The thing is, Trump can pull it off because he has a reputation for being vindictive. No other Republican candidate could make that threat because no one would believe they would actually do it. If Marco Rubio, for example, made that threat it would have no strength because no one would believe for a second that he would sabotage the Republicans by running as a third party candidate. Also he has to rely on the National Republican Party for future election support so he would be forced back into line. That's not a concern Trump has. So Trump can make the threat because he doesn't need the National Republican Party (actually they need him for financial support, not the other way around) and people can believe that Trump would "get revenge" by following through with his threat.
It's an unpopular tactic obviously, but it's a damned effective one. Would he actually follow through? I don't think so....but he just might....and that small amount of doubt is all he needs to put him in a position of negotiating strength. It will interesting to see how it all plays out.
Last edited:
It's blackmail...build it or else...and you won't like "else". 
