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Poll: Utahns Do Not Support Trump's Candidacy
UTAH
Dan Jones and Associates
500 Utah adults, MoE = +4.99
Trump (R) 38
Clinton (D) 29
someone else ("other") 29
don't know 3
Margin: Trump +9
Utah Republicans really, really, REALLY do not like Donald Trump.
More details at the link, for instance:
Historical context:
2012: Romney 72.55%, margin: +47.88%
2008: McCain 62.15%, margin: +27.98%
2004: Bush 43 71.54%, margin: +45.54%
2000: Bush 43 66.83%, margin: +40.49%
1996: Dole 54.37%, margin: +21.07%
1992: Bush 41 43.36%, margin: +16.02%
1988: Bush 41 66.22%, margin: +34.17%
1984: Reagan 74.50%, margin: +49.83%
1980: Reagan 72.77%, margin: +52.20%
1976: Ford 62.44%, margin: +28.79%
1972: Nixon 67.64%, margin: +41.25%
1968: Nixon 56.49%, margin: +19.42%
1964: Johnson 54.86%, margin: +9.73%
1960: Nixon 54.81%, margin: +9.64%
1956: Eisenhower 64.56%, margin: +29.12%
1952: Eisenhower 58.93%, margin: +17.85%
1948: Truman 53.98%, margin: +8.96%
That is a sea of RED.
Above are the 17 presidential elections in UTAH since the beginning of the nuclear age. The Republicans have won 15 of those 17, and of those 15 wins, 6 of them are with +40 or more (2012, 2004, 2000, 1984, 1980, 1972).
Look at the cycles where the Democrat won nationally, but the Republican won Utah:
2012, 2008, 1996, 1992, 1976, 1960. Excluding 2012, in the other races, the Republican won Utah by under +29 points.
Now, do I think that a Democrat can win Utah in 2016?
No, I don't. To put it bluntly, just as is the case in neighboring Wyoming and Idaho, the R's have such a crushing lead over the D's in both party affiliation and in voter registration that a 'D win' here is for all intents and purposes off the table. And I am quite sure that come 2016, after the primaries are over, polling in Utah will show the Republican sailing to an easy landslide victory in this GOP bastion state. Only, if the margin for the Republican in this state is under +29, then it probably means that he is losing nationally. Because you have to go back to 1960 to find a Republican winning this state with less than +29 in a two way race and also winning the national election. Don't forget: three-way races can do weird things to margins. See: (1996, 1992, 1968).
For my way of thinking, this is the first truly shocker poll for 2016.
FYI.
JakeStarkey
Poll: Utahns Do Not Support Trump's Candidacy
UTAH
Dan Jones and Associates
500 Utah adults, MoE = +4.99
Trump (R) 38
Clinton (D) 29
someone else ("other") 29
don't know 3
Margin: Trump +9
Utah Republicans really, really, REALLY do not like Donald Trump.
More details at the link, for instance:
Historical context:
2012: Romney 72.55%, margin: +47.88%
2008: McCain 62.15%, margin: +27.98%
2004: Bush 43 71.54%, margin: +45.54%
2000: Bush 43 66.83%, margin: +40.49%
1996: Dole 54.37%, margin: +21.07%
1992: Bush 41 43.36%, margin: +16.02%
1988: Bush 41 66.22%, margin: +34.17%
1984: Reagan 74.50%, margin: +49.83%
1980: Reagan 72.77%, margin: +52.20%
1976: Ford 62.44%, margin: +28.79%
1972: Nixon 67.64%, margin: +41.25%
1968: Nixon 56.49%, margin: +19.42%
1964: Johnson 54.86%, margin: +9.73%
1960: Nixon 54.81%, margin: +9.64%
1956: Eisenhower 64.56%, margin: +29.12%
1952: Eisenhower 58.93%, margin: +17.85%
1948: Truman 53.98%, margin: +8.96%
That is a sea of RED.
Above are the 17 presidential elections in UTAH since the beginning of the nuclear age. The Republicans have won 15 of those 17, and of those 15 wins, 6 of them are with +40 or more (2012, 2004, 2000, 1984, 1980, 1972).
Look at the cycles where the Democrat won nationally, but the Republican won Utah:
2012, 2008, 1996, 1992, 1976, 1960. Excluding 2012, in the other races, the Republican won Utah by under +29 points.
Now, do I think that a Democrat can win Utah in 2016?
No, I don't. To put it bluntly, just as is the case in neighboring Wyoming and Idaho, the R's have such a crushing lead over the D's in both party affiliation and in voter registration that a 'D win' here is for all intents and purposes off the table. And I am quite sure that come 2016, after the primaries are over, polling in Utah will show the Republican sailing to an easy landslide victory in this GOP bastion state. Only, if the margin for the Republican in this state is under +29, then it probably means that he is losing nationally. Because you have to go back to 1960 to find a Republican winning this state with less than +29 in a two way race and also winning the national election. Don't forget: three-way races can do weird things to margins. See: (1996, 1992, 1968).
For my way of thinking, this is the first truly shocker poll for 2016.
FYI.
JakeStarkey