True shocker poll: Trump leads by only 9 points over Clinton in UTAH

[Statistikhengst]

File under: WOW.

Poll: Utahns Do Not Support Trump's Candidacy

UTAH
Dan Jones and Associates
500 Utah adults, MoE = +4.99

Trump (R) 38
Clinton (D) 29
someone else ("other") 29
don't know 3

Margin: Trump +9

Utah Republicans really, really, REALLY do not like Donald Trump.

More details at the link, for instance:

Historical context:

2012: Romney 72.55%, margin: +47.88%
2008: McCain 62.15%, margin: +27.98%
2004: Bush 43 71.54%, margin: +45.54%
2000: Bush 43 66.83%, margin: +40.49%
1996: Dole 54.37%, margin: +21.07%
1992: Bush 41 43.36%, margin: +16.02%
1988: Bush 41 66.22%, margin: +34.17%
1984: Reagan 74.50%, margin: +49.83%
1980: Reagan 72.77%, margin: +52.20%
1976: Ford 62.44%, margin: +28.79%
1972: Nixon 67.64%, margin: +41.25%
1968: Nixon 56.49%, margin: +19.42%
1964: Johnson 54.86%, margin: +9.73%
1960: Nixon 54.81%, margin: +9.64%
1956: Eisenhower 64.56%, margin: +29.12%
1952: Eisenhower 58.93%, margin: +17.85%
1948: Truman 53.98%, margin: +8.96%

That is a sea of RED.

Above are the 17 presidential elections in UTAH since the beginning of the nuclear age. The Republicans have won 15 of those 17, and of those 15 wins, 6 of them are with +40 or more (2012, 2004, 2000, 1984, 1980, 1972).

Look at the cycles where the Democrat won nationally, but the Republican won Utah:

2012, 2008, 1996, 1992, 1976, 1960. Excluding 2012, in the other races, the Republican won Utah by under +29 points.

Now, do I think that a Democrat can win Utah in 2016?

No, I don't. To put it bluntly, just as is the case in neighboring Wyoming and Idaho, the R's have such a crushing lead over the D's in both party affiliation and in voter registration that a 'D win' here is for all intents and purposes off the table. And I am quite sure that come 2016, after the primaries are over, polling in Utah will show the Republican sailing to an easy landslide victory in this GOP bastion state. Only, if the margin for the Republican in this state is under +29, then it probably means that he is losing nationally. Because you have to go back to 1960 to find a Republican winning this state with less than +29 in a two way race and also winning the national election. Don't forget: three-way races can do weird things to margins. See: (1996, 1992, 1968).

For my way of thinking, this is the first truly shocker poll for 2016.

FYI.

JakeStarkey

 

[JakeStarkey]

Dan Jones is a very reputable company.

Mia Love over Owens was called within a 1/2%. She should have had 60% of the vote in that district and won 50 to 47.

She will have trouble next year.

 

[Pete7469]

Why are C-FAG moonbats always shocked about shit?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Why are C-FAG moonbats always shocked about shit?

I am sorry. You are going to have to do better than this. This is real raw-data, hard and cold facts.

Either you are adult enough to be able to discuss something or you go on ignore for being an insufferable asswipe.

This is your final chance to actually act like a real human being. Take that chance.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Damn.,,,I was looking at the censuses estimates for 2014 and Utah is quickly becoming less white. Salt lake city is darker then Portland. wow!!!!

I'd watch Ga as that will probably become the next Virgina....

 

[1stRambo]

File under: WOW.

Poll: Utahns Do Not Support Trump's Candidacy

UTAH
Dan Jones and Associates
500 Utah adults, MoE = +4.99

Trump (R) 38
Clinton (D) 29
someone else ("other") 29
don't know 3

Margin: Trump +9

View attachment 49150

Utah Republicans really, really, REALLY do not like Donald Trump.

More details at the link, for instance:


View attachment 49152


Historical context:

2012: Romney 72.55%, margin: +47.88%
2008: McCain 62.15%, margin: +27.98%
2004: Bush 43 71.54%, margin: +45.54%
2000: Bush 43 66.83%, margin: +40.49%
1996: Dole 54.37%, margin: +21.07%
1992: Bush 41 43.36%, margin: +16.02%
1988: Bush 41 66.22%, margin: +34.17%
1984: Reagan 74.50%, margin: +49.83%
1980: Reagan 72.77%, margin: +52.20%
1976: Ford 62.44%, margin: +28.79%
1972: Nixon 67.64%, margin: +41.25%
1968: Nixon 56.49%, margin: +19.42%
1964: Johnson 54.86%, margin: +9.73%
1960: Nixon 54.81%, margin: +9.64%
1956: Eisenhower 64.56%, margin: +29.12%
1952: Eisenhower 58.93%, margin: +17.85%
1948: Truman 53.98%, margin: +8.96%

That is a sea of RED.

Above are the 17 presidential elections in UTAH since the beginning of the nuclear age. The Republicans have won 15 of those 17, and of those 15 wins, 6 of them are with +40 or more (2012, 2004, 2000, 1984, 1980, 1972).

Look at the cycles where the Democrat won nationally, but the Republican won Utah:

2012, 2008, 1996, 1992, 1976, 1960. Excluding 2012, in the other races, the Republican won Utah by under +29 points.

Now, do I think that a Democrat can win Utah in 2016?

No, I don't. To put it bluntly, just as is the case in neighboring Wyoming and Idaho, the R's have such a crushing lead over the D's in both party affiliation and in voter registration that a 'D win' here is for all intents and purposes off the table. And I am quite sure that come 2016, after the primaries are over, polling in Utah will show the Republican sailing to an easy landslide victory in this GOP bastion state. Only, if the margin for the Republican in this state is under +29, then it probably means that he is losing nationally. Because you have to go back to 1960 to find a Republican winning this state with less than +29 in a two way race and also winning the national election. Don't forget: three-way races can do weird things to margins. See: (1996, 1992, 1968).

For my way of thinking, this is the first truly shocker poll for 2016.

FYI.

JakeStarkey

Yo, they must be pulling those Polls out of their ass! It`s way to early for Polls? If you go out and talk to Mini Socialist, you will get Clinton! If you go out and talk to Real Americans, you get a Republican in the lead!

"GTP"

 

[Luddly Neddite]

File under: WOW.

Poll: Utahns Do Not Support Trump's Candidacy

UTAH
Dan Jones and Associates
500 Utah adults, MoE = +4.99

Trump (R) 38
Clinton (D) 29
someone else ("other") 29
don't know 3

Margin: Trump +9

View attachment 49150

Utah Republicans really, really, REALLY do not like Donald Trump.

More details at the link, for instance:


View attachment 49152


Historical context:

2012: Romney 72.55%, margin: +47.88%
2008: McCain 62.15%, margin: +27.98%
2004: Bush 43 71.54%, margin: +45.54%
2000: Bush 43 66.83%, margin: +40.49%
1996: Dole 54.37%, margin: +21.07%
1992: Bush 41 43.36%, margin: +16.02%
1988: Bush 41 66.22%, margin: +34.17%
1984: Reagan 74.50%, margin: +49.83%
1980: Reagan 72.77%, margin: +52.20%
1976: Ford 62.44%, margin: +28.79%
1972: Nixon 67.64%, margin: +41.25%
1968: Nixon 56.49%, margin: +19.42%
1964: Johnson 54.86%, margin: +9.73%
1960: Nixon 54.81%, margin: +9.64%
1956: Eisenhower 64.56%, margin: +29.12%
1952: Eisenhower 58.93%, margin: +17.85%
1948: Truman 53.98%, margin: +8.96%

That is a sea of RED.

Above are the 17 presidential elections in UTAH since the beginning of the nuclear age. The Republicans have won 15 of those 17, and of those 15 wins, 6 of them are with +40 or more (2012, 2004, 2000, 1984, 1980, 1972).

Look at the cycles where the Democrat won nationally, but the Republican won Utah:

2012, 2008, 1996, 1992, 1976, 1960. Excluding 2012, in the other races, the Republican won Utah by under +29 points.

Now, do I think that a Democrat can win Utah in 2016?

No, I don't. To put it bluntly, just as is the case in neighboring Wyoming and Idaho, the R's have such a crushing lead over the D's in both party affiliation and in voter registration that a 'D win' here is for all intents and purposes off the table. And I am quite sure that come 2016, after the primaries are over, polling in Utah will show the Republican sailing to an easy landslide victory in this GOP bastion state. Only, if the margin for the Republican in this state is under +29, then it probably means that he is losing nationally. Because you have to go back to 1960 to find a Republican winning this state with less than +29 in a two way race and also winning the national election. Don't forget: three-way races can do weird things to margins. See: (1996, 1992, 1968).

For my way of thinking, this is the first truly shocker poll for 2016.

FYI.

JakeStarkey

And every time Drumpf tells another lie and then his used car salesman "trust me", intelligent people see the emperor has no hair.

...

Drumpf said he would consider a woman for his veep.

Which will he choose? Palin or Kim Kardasian?

He'll quit long before he has to make that decision and frankly, I'm gonna miss him.

 

[Statistikhengst]

File under: WOW.

Poll: Utahns Do Not Support Trump's Candidacy

UTAH
Dan Jones and Associates
500 Utah adults, MoE = +4.99

Trump (R) 38
Clinton (D) 29
someone else ("other") 29
don't know 3

Margin: Trump +9

View attachment 49150

Utah Republicans really, really, REALLY do not like Donald Trump.

More details at the link, for instance:


View attachment 49152


Historical context:

2012: Romney 72.55%, margin: +47.88%
2008: McCain 62.15%, margin: +27.98%
2004: Bush 43 71.54%, margin: +45.54%
2000: Bush 43 66.83%, margin: +40.49%
1996: Dole 54.37%, margin: +21.07%
1992: Bush 41 43.36%, margin: +16.02%
1988: Bush 41 66.22%, margin: +34.17%
1984: Reagan 74.50%, margin: +49.83%
1980: Reagan 72.77%, margin: +52.20%
1976: Ford 62.44%, margin: +28.79%
1972: Nixon 67.64%, margin: +41.25%
1968: Nixon 56.49%, margin: +19.42%
1964: Johnson 54.86%, margin: +9.73%
1960: Nixon 54.81%, margin: +9.64%
1956: Eisenhower 64.56%, margin: +29.12%
1952: Eisenhower 58.93%, margin: +17.85%
1948: Truman 53.98%, margin: +8.96%

That is a sea of RED.

Above are the 17 presidential elections in UTAH since the beginning of the nuclear age. The Republicans have won 15 of those 17, and of those 15 wins, 6 of them are with +40 or more (2012, 2004, 2000, 1984, 1980, 1972).

Look at the cycles where the Democrat won nationally, but the Republican won Utah:

2012, 2008, 1996, 1992, 1976, 1960. Excluding 2012, in the other races, the Republican won Utah by under +29 points.

Now, do I think that a Democrat can win Utah in 2016?

No, I don't. To put it bluntly, just as is the case in neighboring Wyoming and Idaho, the R's have such a crushing lead over the D's in both party affiliation and in voter registration that a 'D win' here is for all intents and purposes off the table. And I am quite sure that come 2016, after the primaries are over, polling in Utah will show the Republican sailing to an easy landslide victory in this GOP bastion state. Only, if the margin for the Republican in this state is under +29, then it probably means that he is losing nationally. Because you have to go back to 1960 to find a Republican winning this state with less than +29 in a two way race and also winning the national election. Don't forget: three-way races can do weird things to margins. See: (1996, 1992, 1968).

For my way of thinking, this is the first truly shocker poll for 2016.

FYI.

JakeStarkey

Yo, they must be pulling those Polls out of their ass! It`s way to early for Polls? If you go out and talk to Mini Socialist, you will get Clinton! If you go out and talk to Real Americans, you get a Republican in the lead!

"GTP"

Next time, try to write something intelligent.

Or go back to your crayola coloring books.

Thanks.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Fortunately for republicans Trump won't be the nominee.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Fortunately for republicans Trump won't be the nominee.

Oh, I am going to wait until all the primary votes are in....

 

[ABikerSailor]

I'm glad Donald the Chump is still in.

Steven Colbert is going to have a field day with him next week.