Today's Snapshot: Who’s Winning the Presidential Campaign? Clinton/Rubio

[Procrustes Stretched]

You're right, the electorate has yet to speak, so how can you put any stock in their predictions? It's all a matter of speculation and opinion.

Uhm, that is what we have been talking about --- predictions and the horse race.

I think I linked to Nate Silver and the data center at FiveThirtyEight to .. you know, the people that predicted Obama beats Romney -- prediction?

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on edit: I did:
The horse race. It is interesting to see. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html

DataLab | FiveThirtyEight

Politics | FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

I'm simply pointing out that IMO the attitude of the electorate is different this time and they've gotten wise to media manipulation, therefore the methods aren't going to apply in this election.

Another flaw I see in their method is the financial backing they talk about. Since Trump isn't using pac money, how can they accurately factor that in regarding him?

I believe that attitude you have on the electorate is a media fed one. There is NO other way for you to have come to that conclusion -- so...what the data is suggesting is that the media narrative is probably wrong. Not possibly wrong, but probably. Probabilities versus possibilities.

Money is one only factor. Trump has yet to use any significant amount of money from his own pockets. So far the Trump phenomena has been a media staged event. Trump is now a serious contender, but being a serious contender with about a third of a primary electorate is not alone a predictor of leading and winning

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

The horse race. It is interesting to see. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html

What’s NewMarco Rubio has taken a noticeable lead over Jeb Bush and other Republicans in the prediction markets. Ben Carson is now leading in the Iowa polls, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, who had been in first place since July.

History suggests that each party’s eventual nominee will emerge from 2015 in one of the top
two or three positions, as measured by endorsements, fund-raising and polling. UPDATED Oct. 25, 2015​

DataLab | FiveThirtyEight

Politics | FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight

Which illustrates the likelihood that Bush will be the nominee, followed by Rubio.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

The horse race. It is interesting to see. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html

What’s NewMarco Rubio has taken a noticeable lead over Jeb Bush and other Republicans in the prediction markets. Ben Carson is now leading in the Iowa polls, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, who had been in first place since July.

History suggests that each party’s eventual nominee will emerge from 2015 in one of the top
two or three positions, as measured by endorsements, fund-raising and polling. UPDATED Oct. 25, 2015​

DataLab | FiveThirtyEight

Politics | FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight

Which illustrates the likelihood that Bush will be the nominee, followed by Rubio.

Rubio is one to watch, but in the end if he is elected in the primaries, it is a whole new ballgame

 

[toxicmedia]

I'm a Presbyterian, and I'm sure your passive aggressive little display is not well meant

Where do your American roots lie? My family helped to establish the Presbyterian Church in the American and Canadian colonies and provinces

My family migrated to Virginia and Pennsylvania, from a town that no longer exists in Germany, From the mid 1700's up to the early-mid 1800's, they were Dunkards, who refused to fight in the civil war...so they all skeedaddled off to western Kansas to settle. Then the dustbowl sent the family flying in all directions. I think the last Kansas hold out, my Grandfather, was a Methodist

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

I'm a Presbyterian, and I'm sure your passive aggressive little display is not well meant

Where do your American roots lie? My family helped to establish the Presbyterian Church in the American and Canadian colonies and provinces

My family migrated to Virginia and Pennsylvania, from a town that no longer exists in Germany, From the mid 1700's up to the early-mid 1800's, they were Dunkards, who refused to fight in the civil war...so they all skeedaddled off to western Kansas to settle. Then the dustbowl sent the family flying in all directions. I think the last Kansas hold out, my Grandfather, was a Methodist

Hessian mercenaries?

 

[SAYIT]

Rubio is the Dem's worst nightmare.

He is a youthful, moderate Hispanic from an important swing state who would - paired with Fiorino, Sanders or Kasich - cut into Hillary's or Sander's support among a number of normally Dem social and geographic demographics.

As an added bonus, we have seen him grow the past few months and IMHO is the Repub's best chance to win the WH.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Rubio is the Dem's worst nightmare.

He is a youthful, moderate Hispanic from an important swing state who would - paired with Fiorino, Sanders or Kasich - cut into Hillary's or Sander's support among a number of normally Dem social and geographic demographics.

As an added bonus, we have seen him grow the past few months and IMHO is the Repub's best chance to win the WH.

A Rubio primaries win is a game changer. No doubt about that. But when you say silly things about nightmares you lose

 

[S.J.]

I'm simply pointing out that IMO the attitude of the electorate is different this time and they've gotten wise to media manipulation, therefore the methods aren't going to apply in this election.

Another flaw I see in their method is the financial backing they talk about. Since Trump isn't using pac money, how can they accurately factor that in regarding him?

I believe that attitude you have on the electorate is a media fed one. There is NO other way for you to have come to that conclusion -- so...what the data is suggesting is that the media narrative is probably wrong. Not possibly wrong, but probably. Probabilities versus possibilities.

Money is one only factor. Trump has yet to use any significant amount of money from his own pockets. So far the Trump phenomena has been a media staged event. Trump is now a serious contender, but being a serious contender with about a third of a primary electorate is not alone a predictor of leading and winning

Ok, not worth arguing over. We'll just have to wait and watch Bush and Rubio bite the dust.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Ok, not worth arguing over. We'll just have to wait and watch Bush and Rubio bite the dust.

So you've been reduced to casting magic spells over the primaries praying that
Trump will pull ahead of two out of the three horses that are faster than he is?

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Rubio is the Dem's worst nightmare.

He is a youthful, moderate Hispanic from an important swing state who would - paired with Fiorino, Sanders or Kasich - cut into Hillary's or Sander's support among a number of normally Dem social and geographic demographics.

As an added bonus, we have seen him grow the past few months and IMHO is the Repub's best chance to win the WH.

Disagree.

Reflect on last Thursday's 'hearing.'

Reflect on Clinton's performance – her professional demeanor, her authoritative responses, her comprehensive knowledge of the issues, how she withstood for hours the relentless attacks from republican committee members coming at her from all angles, and managed to make most, if not all of them, look bad.

Now imagine Clinton giving that same performance against the likes of Rubio in a presidential debate...

 

[SAYIT]

Rubio is the Dem's worst nightmare.

He is a youthful, moderate Hispanic from an important swing state who would - paired with Fiorino, Sanders or Kasich - cut into Hillary's or Sander's support among a number of normally Dem social and geographic demographics.

As an added bonus, we have seen him grow the past few months and IMHO is the Repub's best chance to win the WH.

Disagree.

Reflect on last Thursday's 'hearing.'

Reflect on Clinton's performance – her professional demeanor, her authoritative responses, her comprehensive knowledge of the issues, how she withstood for hours the relentless attacks from republican committee members coming at her from all angles, and managed to make most, if not all of them, look bad.

Now imagine Clinton giving that same performance against the likes of Rubio in a presidential debate...

That would happen only if she had a few Democrat mods acting as her defense attorneys and tossing her softball questions as she did at that dog and pony show of a congressional hearing.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

The horse race. It is interesting to see. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html

What’s NewMarco Rubio has taken a noticeable lead over Jeb Bush and other Republicans in the prediction markets. Ben Carson is now leading in the Iowa polls, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, who had been in first place since July.

History suggests that each party’s eventual nominee will emerge from 2015 in one of the top
two or three positions, as measured by endorsements, fund-raising and polling. UPDATED Oct. 25, 2015​

DataLab | FiveThirtyEight

Politics | FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight

Now Rubio is in -- All or Nothing. He is leaving the US Senate. He like the 2006/2007 Senator Obama, has an urge to move fast. The urgency of now

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Prediction Markets
When a campaign still has months remaining, prediction markets — in which traders bet on event outcomes — have a substantially better record than polls at pointing to the eventual nominee. But the markets do have at least one weakness: They sometimes exaggerate the chances of unusual or long-shot candidates, like Donald Trump, perhaps because a few passionate traders can affect prices.

interesting stuff

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Actually, if not mistaken, horse races at the finish line are decide by fractions of a second. So I'd say politican elections, especially for President have more in common with say a marathon where the winner's usually the winner by quite a bit.

actually, Clinton and Rubio are in the lead...

A candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the party nomination. At the least, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.

As for the polls, they’re not irrelevant, even at this early stage. But the national polls matter less than the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote and the states where voters are paying more attention to the candidates.

Here, we offer a scoreboard that totes up the factors that matter most, and we’ll update it every day for the remainder of the year. For all the imperfections in his campaign so far, Jeb Bush still leads the Republican field, albeit by a much smaller margin than Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html?_r=0​

pfft

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

The horse race. It is interesting to see. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html

What’s NewMarco Rubio has taken a noticeable lead over Jeb Bush and other Republicans in the prediction markets. Ben Carson is now leading in the Iowa polls, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, who had been in first place since July.

History suggests that each party’s eventual nominee will emerge from 2015 in one of the top
two or three positions, as measured by endorsements, fund-raising and polling. UPDATED Oct. 25, 2015​

DataLab | FiveThirtyEight

Politics | FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight

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